Credit rating agencies now clearly recognise that climate change has become its own risk category, explains Tom Sanzillo at IEEFA who summarises his 43-page report. Financially, the coal, oil and gas sectors have served the world for decades. But due to regulatory, legal, economic, financial, political and social concerns, coal is credit negative and oil and gas is no longer positive. Sanzillo’s report charts the gradual erosion of the sector’s … [Read more...]
Half of fossil fuel Methane reduction targets can be met at no net cost. Why isn’t it happening?
We need to cut global methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75% by 2030 to be on target to limit warming to 1.5°C. That equates to 90 Mt of the current total of 120 Mt of annual fossil fuel methane emissions. The IEA says 80 Mt can be avoided through the deployment of known and existing technologies, often at low – or even negative – cost. And the 75% cut needs $170bn in spending to 2030, a very achievable sum given it represents less than 5% of … [Read more...]
The link between global GDP growth and CO2 emissions is weakening rapidly. Will emissions peak well before 2030?
Economic growth has been closely tied to rising greenhouse gas emissions since the industrial age. But data now clearly shows that that GDP growth and CO2 emissions are diverging. Siddharth Singh at the IEA presents the numbers. In advanced economies that divergence now seems locked in, with 2007 marking the moment of peak emissions (and not simply because of offshoring manufacturing). Even in developing economies GDP growth is far outpacing … [Read more...]
EU’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions drop to levels last seen in the 1960s
The EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (including power generation, industry and transport) dropped 8% in 2023 year-on-year, reaching levels last seen in the early 1960s, reveals an analysis by CREA. More than half of that decline came from an impressive 25% year-on-year reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation. The cleaner electricity mix is thanks to the continuous rise of wind and solar as well as a rebound in hydropower and nuclear. … [Read more...]
Germany: Carbon Prices could phase-out Coal by 2030 without a new law
The upward trend in the carbon price since 2015 has already seen coal generation decline significantly. Last year, total generation was a little over 100 TWh; it was 263 TWh in 2003. Sebastian Ligewie at Energy Brainpool looks at the prices of hard coal, lignite and the EUAs (EU emission allowances). It’s around €37 per MWh for hard coal and €8 for lignite. But emissions costs of around €63 per MWh for hard coal and €84 for lignite are added to … [Read more...]
Poland’s Coal-to-Nuclear plans move forward with U.S. partners
Poland sees nuclear as ideal for replacing its coal, explain Matt Bowen and Sagatom Saha at the Center on Global Energy Policy. Though Poland's renewables like wind and solar have grown rapidly in the last few years, reactors can provide dispatchable heat and power in the way that coal currently does. Poland is extremely reliant on coal, generating over 70% of its electricity and giving it the second-largest coal fleet in the EU. Hence, in … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: power prices and revenues predicted for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Huangluolun Zhou, Elena Dahlem and Alex Schmitt at Energy Brainpool present their updated “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, modelling how the European energy system will undergo major changes in the coming decades while continuing to guarantee a secure supply and meet its climate targets. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for solar PV and wind? The two main scenarios are “Central” and “GoHydrogen” for the EU 27 … [Read more...]
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now building more Renewables, less Coal
Energy has always made up the majority of investments and construction deals signed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Until very recently these investments were dominated by fossil fuel projects. But in the first half of this year, over 40% of BRI energy projects announced were wind and solar, with 22% each for gas and oil, and zero for coal projects. The reasons include China’s stated commitment to clean energy, avoiding the risk … [Read more...]
When 0.2% Methane leakage can make Gas dirtier than Coal
Around the world gas is replacing coal to reduce emissions. But even small amounts of methane leakage in the gas life-cycle can make emissions on par with or even worse than coal, explain Shannon Hughes and Deborah Gordon at RMI. They present their calculator that shows if West Virginia state's gas methane leakage rate is just 1.4% their emissions equal the coal it replaces. Texas Permian LNG exported to China only needs a leakage rate of 0.2% to … [Read more...]
EU states agree deal on electricity market to protect consumers from price volatility, boost cheap renewable power
On Tuesday EU member states finally agreed on how to reform the bloc's electricity market after long months of difficult negotiations. The introduction of long-term contracts, particularly contracts for difference (CfDs), should stabilise prices for consumers and give certainty to investors in new generation. But the big concern had been how the state support implicit in CfDs might be used to bias the playing field in favour of nuclear and coal, … [Read more...]
What can today’s Energy Revolution learn from the previous Industrial and Information Revolutions?
What can the Industrial Revolution and the more recent Information Revolution teach us about the Energy Revolution we are going through now, ask Yuki Numata, Laurens Speelman and Marissa Gantman at RMI. Importantly, the same questions that were ignored or dismissed in those past transitions will help us shape our energy transition to make it better, faster, less wasteful and polluting, as well as more equitable. The authors reveal a 4-part … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture rates of 60% sound impressive. But rising carbon prices could still make you commercially unviable
Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Nearly half of national climate pledges (NDCs) intend to keep extracting fossil fuels
“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are a nation’s published plans to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Natalie Jones at the IISD, writing for Carbon Brief, summarises her co-authored study that reviews the fossil fuel production element of those NDCs. Nations are obliged to update their NDCs every five years, to give more detail. That added detail is a cause for concern in the latest round of NDCs: there is an … [Read more...]
Power to the people: citizen-centred Just Transitions challenge energy system centralisation
EU Member States need to phase-out coal and transform their carbon-intensive industries to make Europe climate-neutral. However, these should not be the only goals: transparency and justice must also accompany this path, argue Diana SĂĽsser at IEECP, Serafeim Michas at TEESlab and Ricardo Antonio GarcĂa Mira at the University of A Coruna. As Member States implement their territorial just transition plans, they must ensure they benefit affected … [Read more...]
U.S. EPA: new rules proposed for cutting Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plant emissions
In May the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed new rules regulating carbon emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants. Here, four experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies – Cy McGeady, John Larsen, Kyle Danish and Mathias Zacarias – make their assessment and point at the wide-ranging implications. The main issues covered include CCS, hydrogen-fuelled generation, state clean energy standards, carbon pricing, … [Read more...]
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