Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Is global energy security being used as an excuse to build more U.S. LNG export capacity?
Europe’s energy security is being used as an excuse in the U.S. to build more LNG terminals than are actually needed, argues Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz at IEEFA. European gas demand is expected to keep falling. Even with U.S. projects that are currently under construction, its LNG export capacity in 2030 will be 76% higher than Europe’s forecast demand. The U.S. should seriously re-evaluate its strategy or risk overinvestment, says … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
When 0.2% Methane leakage can make Gas dirtier than Coal
Around the world gas is replacing coal to reduce emissions. But even small amounts of methane leakage in the gas life-cycle can make emissions on par with or even worse than coal, explain Shannon Hughes and Deborah Gordon at RMI. They present their calculator that shows if West Virginia state's gas methane leakage rate is just 1.4% their emissions equal the coal it replaces. Texas Permian LNG exported to China only needs a leakage rate of 0.2% to … [Read more...]
Fossil producer UAE to host COP28: what are Gulf states doing to decarbonise?
COP28 in November is being hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major oil and gas producer. The COP President will be Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, one of the world’s biggest oil companies. It’s attracted heavy criticism from many quarters. Robin Mills at the Center on Global Energy Policy reviews the contradictions inherent in a leading fossil producing nation hosting the world’s most important decarbonisation forum. The Gulf states … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Will U.S. become the Global Gas Market’s source of flexibility and security of supply?
The U.S. will take the lead in offering flexibility and security of supply to the global gas market, and at prices linked to its wholesale gas market, the most liquid in the world, argue Kong Chyong and Ira Joseph at the Center on Global Energy Policy. It’s because the U.S. leads in the three key sources of gas trade flexibility, critical to meeting unexpected supply and demand gaps: natural gas storage systems, spare capacity in production and … [Read more...]
Europe: preventing a “carbon wall” between the West and the ten Central and Eastern EU nations
Diana-Paula Gherasim at the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate summarises her 36-page data-rich report on the progress and challenges for the ten Central and Eastern EU (CEECs) countries in decarbonisation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has focussed all minds on energy security and the best solutions: less fossils, efficiency gains and clean energy made in the EU. Gherasim says that vitally important progress is being made in avoiding a … [Read more...]
Germany: does the LNG infrastructure build-up deliver energy security or go too far?
A report out this month from the German government says it wants a significant “safety buffer” of new LNG import capacity, to ensure that the country - and neighbouring landlocked states - will receive sufficient supply of natural gas in the coming years. It says an overcapacity is needed in case of failures due to accidents, sabotage or other external factors not under German or EU control. Events have shown that unilateral dependencies in … [Read more...]
Will Europe now commit to long term imports of large quantities of LNG?
The EU and European nations need a more secure LNG supply strategy than just buying on the spot market where there is little control of prices and quantities. With Russian gas off the agenda for the foreseeable future, it’s LNG that’s filled the gap. But spot prices have been extremely high, and may return to the same heights. And though China’s Covid-caused drop in LNG consumption helped enable Europe to buy enough for now, that won’t be the … [Read more...]
Gas: a history of Energy Security in the EU. And what’s next post-Russia?
The security of supply of gas has been the hottest topic of the last 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. James Kneebone at the Florence School of Regulation (FSR) has written an explainer that lays out the EU’s history of dealing with energy security, going back to the 1990s. Because the EU has a single market for natural gas and widely shared value chains (pipelines, LNG terminals, storage, etc.), impacts are felt across the bloc. But that … [Read more...]
Can Global Shipping turn talk into action on reducing emissions?
This week the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) member states are meeting to find ways and agree on how to step up their climate goals. Strategies and targets have been presented, but agreement and binding commitments are needed urgently. There are big differences of opinion within the IMO, and it might turn out that regional and industry developments will drive change faster, explains Christiaan De Beukelaer at Durham University. For … [Read more...]
What was Europe’s dependence on gas prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
### REGISTER NOW ### for our vitally important 2-panel event “The Energy Crisis and Russian Aggression Against Ukraine – Key Challenges for the Central European Energy Sector”, on Thursday December 8, 13:00 – 17:00 CET (Address: Rue Belliard 40, 1040 Brussels). High-profile confirmed speakers include Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy, EC; Leszek JesieĹ„, Chairman of the Board, CEEP; Jerzy Buzek, MEP and former president of the … [Read more...]
European gas prices have fallen sharply since August. What happens next?
Prices on the European gas market have fallen sharply since August 2022 and Europe’s gas storage facilities are almost full. That’s good news, but the problems aren’t over. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, explains why by looking at the data. He runs through the main factors driving the changes, primarily strong LNG imports, Norway’s increased production, mild weather, and lower gas consumption (particularly in industry). … [Read more...]
Event Summary: “CHINA: Carbon Neutral by 2060 – The Future of Gas”
Here are the written highlights of our 2-day 4-session workshop “CHINA: Carbon Neutral by 2060 – The Future of Gas”, compiled by Helena Uhde at ECECP. Here you can quickly see the main points made by our expert panellists. Global events have made gas the hottest of issues, and the implications for both Europe and China are strongly reflected in all the sessions. The four session topics were Security of Supply, CCUS for the Gas Sector, Competitive … [Read more...]
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