Decarbonising heating is a major challenge for any country. Germany’s Building Energy Act (GEG) means that from 2024 every newly installed heating system, in new or existing buildings, must operate with a minimum of 65% renewable energy. Concerns over the costs to customers (installing new and expensive systems, or paying a penalty for fossil heating) has led to intense debates, hence the new law includes a range of subsidies, bonuses, discounted … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture rates of 60% sound impressive. But rising carbon prices could still make you commercially unviable
Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Russia’s oil export revenue rebounded in March–April. Why aren’t the EU, U.S. and partners enforcing the price cap?
The Price Cap Coalition (PCC) - composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the UK, and the U.S. – are failing to either enforce or lower the cap on Russian oil exports as promised, says a report summarised here from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Had it done so, Russian revenues could have been slashed by €22bn (37%) since December by lowering the price cap for crude oil to $30/barrel and revising the caps for oil … [Read more...]
Nearly half of national climate pledges (NDCs) intend to keep extracting fossil fuels
“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are a nation’s published plans to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Natalie Jones at the IISD, writing for Carbon Brief, summarises her co-authored study that reviews the fossil fuel production element of those NDCs. Nations are obliged to update their NDCs every five years, to give more detail. That added detail is a cause for concern in the latest round of NDCs: there is an … [Read more...]
Germany’s proposed de facto ban on new fossil boilers from 2024 meets fierce resistance
Like many nations, Germany is struggling to find a way to replace fossil fuel-powered boilers in millions of homes and buildings with heat pumps and other cleaner alternatives. Heating accounts for a whopping 15% of the country’s emissions. As Sören Amelang at CLEW explains, the up-front cost of a new clean heater can be double that of existing mass-produced fossil equivalent, so home owners are resistant. In 2022, two thirds of all new heating … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas can meet 2030 net-zero target for only $600bn, quickly recouped. But it’s still not happening, warns IEA
The IEA summarises its 33-page report “Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions”. The IEA says the oil and gas sector needs £600bn up front to meet its 2030 target of a 60% reduction in emissions. That’s only 15% of the sector’s record 2022 energy-crisis windfall income. A small price increase and savings should recoup that money “quickly”, says the IEA. The IEA not only maps a way to limit the global average temperature rise … [Read more...]
Global “explosive” growth means 1 in 3 new cars will be electric by 2030. But SUV emissions could wipe out those gains
More than a third of all new vehicles sold globally in 2030 will be electric, according to the IEA. That’s a doubling of its prediction made only two years ago. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the report. The IEA describes the growth as “explosive”: from just 1% of global car sales in 2017, to 14% last year, and now 18% expected by the end of 2023. China has consistently dominated those sales while new policies in the U.S. and EU are … [Read more...]
Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year
The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
The U.S. is moving faster than the EU on Methane regulations. Why?
Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies takes a deep dive into U.S. and EU progress on regulating methane emissions. It’s vitally important because methane has more than 80 times the warming potential of CO2 in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. In his assessment, Cahill explains why the U.S. is likely to move much faster than the EU. Unlike the U.S., the EU is a big importer of gas so needs its rules complied with by … [Read more...]
Credit Rating Agencies: a guide to pricing in long-term climate risks
Nobody wants share, stock and bond prices to fall off a cliff unexpectedly. But while Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) continue to evaluate based on short-term policy changes and market forces without specifically accounting for climate risks, that’s what could happen. IEEFA have published their guides to how CRAs can adapt – without throwing out – their existing models to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risks. Hazel … [Read more...]
Renewables “cost of capital” in Europe lower than oil, gas, coal. What the U.S. and China can learn
The ultimate price of anything is highly dependent on the cost of capital needed to put it in place. That cost reflects the risks financial markets perceive. And policy certainty reduces risk. Gireesh Shrimali, Christian Wilson and Xiaoyan Zhou at Oxford University, writing for WEF, summarise their global study which shows the cost of capital for different energy technologies, and therefore which ones will trend upwards and dominate. They cover … [Read more...]
IEA’s global “CO2 Emissions in 2022” report: by sector, fuel, region, heating +more
The IEA has published “CO2 Emissions in 2022”, giving estimates of CO2 emissions from all energy sources and industrial processes globally. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt. Emissions from various sources (sector, fuel, region, heating, etc.) are broken down, with reasons for why the change happened. The report is part of the IEA’s first global stocktake of the … [Read more...]
Coal phase-out: Developing world targets are unfeasible. Rich nations must cut emissions faster
Developing nations like China, India and South Africa are being asked to phase out coal more than twice as fast as any comparable energy phase-out in history, for the world to meet the Paris climate goals. That’s simply unrealistic say James Price and Steve Pye at UCL who present the results of their new study. Instead, rich nations will have to reduce significantly their oil and gas to compensate for the shortfall. An oil and gas peak isn’t good … [Read more...]
COP 27: a way forward for methane, fossil fuel (not just coal) phase-out, and U.S.-China competition?
COP 27 was never expected to have the impact that COP 26 did, and that’s how it turned out, explain Ben Cahill, Sandeep Pai and Taiya Smith at CSIS. But there are three issues that can have long term positive impacts if carried forward successfully. The first is some good news on methane emissions. The U.S., the EU, Japan and other countries announced an important producer-consumer effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions from traded gas, while … [Read more...]
Measuring the effect of radical protests on the public and the national agenda
Climate protest happen all over the world now. In some places they hit the news headlines hard because roads are blocked and cultural artefacts are vandalised by small numbers of protestors. These radical protestors are facing the “activist’s dilemma”: even though many of the public object to their methods, will the publicity help their cause? Colin Davis at the University of Bristol offers research that tries to measure the phenomenon. … [Read more...]
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