Five things that should have happened at the recent climate conference in Bonn, didnât happen, write Marc Hudson and Matthew Paterson of the University of Manchester. But there is life beyond the UNFCCC process. They identify five things to watch for in climate policy in the coming year â if it isnât too late already to save the world from climate change. Courtesy The Conversation.
Unusually for a large UN climate conference, the recent Bonn talks didnât finish with any late-night haggling. Progress, in the form of various commitments and pledges, is best described as slow and steady.
Ahead of the conference, we made five suggestions of things that should happen but probably wouldnât. They were: ditch fossil fuels entirely, pledge more aggressive emissions cuts, a big increase in climate funds for developing countries, rapid agreement on rules for implementing the Paris Agreement and that âfantasy technologiesâ that take carbon out of the atmosphere would be exposed as wishful thinking.
Weâll look at how the conference did against our five proposed metrics, discuss âwhat nextâ for the UNâs climate process ahead of next yearâs meeting, and then suggest five other things to keep a climate-related eye on.
- Enough with the oil, coal and gas already
Well, there was fun news when the sole US event saw an executive from coal giant Peabody argue for âclean coalâ. The audience sang a protest song and many then walked out.
The major headline was the launch of the âPowering Past Coal Allianceâ, led by the UK and Canada, with pledges by Mexico, New Zealand, Denmark and Angola, among others â 20 countries in all. This alliance pledged to phase out all coal-fired electricity (except that with Carbon Capture and Storage), although without a clear target date. Sceptics rightly point out that these countries werenât burning much coal anywayand will continue to burn other fossil fuels.
This last point stuck in the craw of Friends of the Earth UK, who pointed out that the UK is simultaneously giving the green light to fracking, a whole new fossil fuel industry which, despite the gas industryâs claims, is not compatible with climate commitments.
- Sharpen the teeth of the pledges
Didnât happen (that sound is the authors sighing smugly but wearily). The issue âflared upâ, and was defused with a promise of a âstock-takeâ of action over the next two years.
- Show us the money
Also didnât happen. Indeed, climate finance caused such conflict that things threatened to boil over and cause the talks to collapse entirely. The poorer countries wanted to know what they will get and when (to help with planning). According to a Guardian report, the richer countries professed that they were not unwilling, but that making promises on behalf of future governments is legally complex.
- Clarify the rules
This also didnât happen (thereâs a pattern emerging, no?). There is now what Damian Carrington of the Guardian characterises as a
skeleton: a set of headings relating to how action on emissions is reported and monitored. Nations have also fleshed this out with suggested detailed texts, but these are often contradictory and will need to be resolved next year.
There will now be an additional meeting in 2018 before the next COP to make sure the Paris rule book gets finished on time.
- Fantasy technologies are exposed as delusions
Nope. While the Powering Past Coal people pledged, four events promoting carbon capture and storage were held over a three-day period. Meanwhile other issues, such as oceans, adaptation, and loss and damage have âdrifted into obscurityâ.
What next?
Everyone has their own opinions on what needs to happen over the next year, in the lead up to COP24 in Poland.
There will be the âTalanoa dialogueâ â named after a traditional word used in Fiji and the Pacific to reflect a process of inclusive, participatory and transparent dialogue â around how everyone is doing on their long-term commitments. Meanwhile, next September will see the launch of an IPCC report on what would need to be done to limit global warming to 1.5â (hint: change some laws â primarily laws of physics).
Five things to watch for in the coming year
But there is life beyond the official UNFCCC process. Here are five things to watch for:
- Will US states and cities put their money where their mouths are? As part of âAmericaâs Pledgeâ, 20 US states, more than 50 of its largest cities and more than 60 of its biggest businesses have committed to emissions-reduction goals. If this materialises, it could negate Trumpâs âfossil fuels foreverâ strategy.
- What happens with the EU? The German chancellor, Angela Merkel â criticised by George Monbiot as âthe worldâs leading eco-vandalâ due to a series of industry-friendly interventions â has teamed up with Emmanuel Macronto reform the much-criticised EU Emissions Trading Scheme. At the same time, European strategy may be compromised â not only by Brexit, but by the vacuum of a potential post-Merkel era of German leadership. Meanwhile, will the âEurope Beyond Coalâ campaign score big wins?
- China (of course) The Chinese didnât make an expected announcementon their own emissions trading scheme at Bonn, but itâs coming soon. Meanwhile, an influential Chinese advisory body is pushing for no new coal plants to be approved, alongside a boost to the official 2020 solar target. China, it seems, is leading the renewables revolution.
- Coalâs death spiral With encouragement from US billionaire Michael Bloomberg, more organisations will divestfrom coal, accelerating its decline, with renewables increasing their market share (from a very low baseline). The announcements from the Powering Past Coal Alliance might help nudge this further.
- Physical impacts Emissions are climbing again, after a reported plateau. The Arctic is warming upfaster than climate models had predicted, and the Australian summer may be unusually warm and dry.
So we can no doubt expect to see more articles which ask how we can make the most of things if indeed âit is too lateâ to save the world from climate change.
Editorâs Note
Matthew Paterson is Professor of International Politics at the University of Manchester. Marc Hudson is a Ph.D. candidate at the Sustainable Consumption Institute at the University of Manchester.
This article was first published on The Conversation and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence and with permission from the authors.
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