Modelling tools are becoming increasingly important to policy makers for creating transition pathways. More detail is required as the pace of change accelerates. Yet complexity is increasing as new technologies and solutions come online. And those models are needed at the local level, not just the national and global. Itâs why the EU is funding, through Horizon 2020, a range of projects to not only make those tools a success, but make them freely … [Read more...]
Whatâs your average lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth, to achieve net-zero by 2050?
To reach net zero by 2050, babies born today must have CO2 footprints ten times smaller over their lifetimes than their parents and grandparents. In rich countries itâll be fifteen times, while in emerging economies like India and China itâll be around four times smaller. Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen and Hyeji Kim at the IEA summarise how they have calculated the average allowable lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth. Taking the two extremes, the … [Read more...]
District Heating Roundtable: Policy across RED, EED and EPBD “must take account of conditions in all Member States”
Sara Stefanini provides a written summary of our panel discussion held on 10th February: District Heating under the "Fit for 55" package: challenges and opportunities. Under the âFit for 55â package, the EC proposed several regulatory changes that, combined, are meant to decarbonise district heating in Europe. But are these options workable for all? The participants raise questions over the support for district heating, whether the multiple … [Read more...]
Critical Raw Materials for the energy transition: Europe must start mining again
A ramp up of the supply of critical raw materials (CRMs) is essential for the worldâs energy transition. Wind and solar, batteries, digitalisation, transport and hydrogen cannot meet their targets without it. The EU defines 30 minerals as critical. To give one example, the global deficits in lithium supplies could surge more than 60-fold to 950,000 tons by 2030. Frank Umbach at EUCERS takes a thorough look at the issue. Europe represented just 5% … [Read more...]
Can Carbon Offset loopholes be fixed with better evaluation and rules?
Carbon offset programmes rightly get a lot of criticism. Thereâs plenty of evidence of offsets not delivering all the GHG emissions reductions they are credited for. Though still on the international agenda, should they be ditched? Or can they be improved with better analysis and evaluation, and making that a pre-condition for creating carbon offset credits, asks Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas. She starts by looking at those … [Read more...]
Net-Zero world: calculating the cost of stranded assets, including wrong-skilled âhuman capitalâ
Most calculations of the costs of stranded assets abandoned and replaced by the net-zero economy have been missing the biggest element: human capital. Itâs not sufficient just to total up the assets and supporting infrastructure for coal, gas, old-style buildings, machines, vehicles, etc., says Dan Chester at Lancaster University and co-author of the paper âStranded Human and Produced Capital in a Net-Zero Transitionâ. Worker output is not only … [Read more...]
COP26 accepted the science like never before. It should make a difference
Leading scientists, writing for Carbon Brief, explain how COP26 gave far greater recognition to science than any of the previous COPs. The scientific evidence from the latest IPCC reports was explicitly acknowledged in the Glasgow Climate Pact. That is a significant advance, say the authors. Decision-making guided by science can focus quantitively on carbon budgets, temperatures, climate change, the causes, and therefore the emissions-reductions … [Read more...]
Paris Agreement âGlobal Stocktakeâ should focus on individual nations too
Itâs time for national governments to focus on the short-term domestic actions needed to meet their 1.5°C goals, argue Anna PĂ©rez CatalĂ , Henri Waisman, Marta Torres Gunfaus and Ariadna Anisimov at IDDRI. Analyses of emissions gaps at a collective and global level wonât be enough, the current purpose of the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. The first GST runs from 2021 to 2023 and the process will be repeated every 5 years. The … [Read more...]
COP26 and the Glasgow Pact: a summary of achievements, and shortfalls
Experts from around the world summarise their reaction to the outcomes of this yearâs UN climate summit, COP26, including the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed by all 197 countries attending the talks. Each expert covers their area of interest: overall targets, greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel finance, nature conservation, transportation, cities and buildings, energy sector transitions, science and innovation, and gender equality. The overall … [Read more...]
Politicians need net-zero scenarios that include socio-economic obstacles and solutions
Standard net-zero scenario modelling carefully analyses the possible impacts of technological solutions and their obstacles. What theyâre missing is the detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of these scenarios on the lives of citizens. That means jobs, incomes, energy bills, air quality, and regional economic performance. In other words, the politics on the ground. Misunderstood, and perfectly sensible pathways will come up against … [Read more...]
The greenest energy is the energy we donât use
As COP26 comes to a close, Martin Rossen, Senior Vice President, Head of Group Communication and Sustainability at Danfoss reminds us in a powerfully persuasive way why the most direct route to net-zero is managing consumption. Inspired by a glaring omission by Bill Gates in his recent book, Rossen draws our attention to the futility of developing new tech if we donât prioritise making use of readily available energy efficiency solutions. … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: strategies and case studies for reaching net-zero by 2050
Technological solutions on their own are unlikely to deliver emissions reductions at the speed and scale required to reach net zero by 2050. Daniel Crow, Insa Handschuch, Gabriel Saive and Leonie Staas at the IEA look at a suite of policy-driven citizen âbehaviour changesâ that should be used to bridge the gap. The impact will be greatest in advanced economies where energy intensity is highest. Meanwhile, in emerging economies the good habits put … [Read more...]
UNEP 2021 Emissions Gap report: only 11 countries have net-zero targets enshrined in law
Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief summarises the UNEP 2021 Emissions Gap report, released last week. It explores the impact of the net-zero emissions pledges of nations, and the âgapâ between them and the Paris targets. As COP26 gets started, 136 countries either have some form of commitment to a net-zero target or are considering it. Of those, 49 plus the EU have a firm net-zero commitment. But only 11 countries have targets enshrined in law. … [Read more...]
IEA WEO 2021 message to COP26: 40% of clean energy goals will cut costs
The IEAâs latest World Energy Outlook was published on Wednesday. This yearâs WEO-2021 is released earlier than usual to inform COP26 and, for the first time, is available for free to ensure the widest possible audience. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief offers his summary of the 386-page report, quoting relevant numbers and charts. He first points to the new scenario, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE), as the IEAâs recognition that this is what … [Read more...]
CEPP incentives and penalties: current design could undermine U.S. clean energy growth
The Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) is a key part of President Bidenâs energy and climate plans. It will steer utilities towards clean energy with incentives and penalties, and is still being designed. Severin Borenstein and James Bushnell at the Energy Institute at Haas, Steve Cicala at Tufts University and Ryan Kellogg at the University of Chicago warn that current proposals will allow utilities to game the system, resulting in … [Read more...]
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