The MIT Energy Initiative (MITIE) has completed a 3-year study of “Mobility of the Future” to plot a decarbonised pathway for light duty vehicles (i.e. cars) globally. Wide in scope and detail, it covers government policies, consumer choices and technologies, combining their multiple and complex impacts to make their assessments. Kathryn Luu at MITIE reviews the final 220-page report. For consumers, cost, convenience, and — increasingly — carbon … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trump’s intention to further deregulate methane emissions. That’s because they’ve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: measuring complex mobility options to make cities smarter
How do you factor future behaviour change into transport, housing, workplace and energy infrastructure planning? Clearly, future plans based on past behaviour will end up being wrong. And metrics that tell us which behaviour is most efficient can point us in better directions. We won’t find the answer until we start measuring it. That’s why the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is leading a collaboration of U.S. government and academia … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 5 of 5): Electric cars
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published this week. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another) in 2030 as the best and only way to accelerate the transition to meet the 2050 goals. Given that, he sees the traditional fossil fuel ICE’s share … [Read more...]
Aviation’s multiple challenges: from renewable fuels to non-CO2 emissions
Barely the first steps towards climate-neutral aviation have been made. High energy density renewable fuels are needed, and at scale. But even as they become available, hard-to-abate industries will be queuing up to buy them first. And then there’s reducing the "non-CO2 effects" that, according to Germany's environment agency (UBA), can harm the climate twice as much as direct CO2 emissions: condensation trails, particles and other greenhouse … [Read more...]
EVs should be getting cheaper. Instead they’re getting bigger
Manufacturing an EV is getting cheaper, but affluent consumers are buying bigger cars for the same money. If manufacturers are left to serve them first, they’ll leave until last the development of cheaper EVs, penetrating new markets, that would more rapidly accelerate the replacement of fossil fuel cars and therefore the transition. That leaves policy makers with a big problem with the “success” of EVs, explain Leonardo Paoli and Simon Bennett … [Read more...]
UK rail: where are the electric-diesel hybrids, hydrogen, battery trains?
Cars and planes get much more attention than trains when it comes to emissions. That makes sense when, in the UK, transport accounts for 26% of all carbon emissions but only 1% of this comes from trains. Also, trains are already relatively emission-low: they release 0.046kg of CO₂/km/passenger while a diesel car is more than double that. Marcus Mayers and David Bamford at Manchester Metropolitan University explain that the crucial difference is … [Read more...]
Electro-mobility planning, pricing, smart-charging: “Pentalateral Region” can lead Europe
At the end of October, Ministers and Director-Generals of Energy and Mobility from the Pentalateral Region (Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France and Germany), CEOs and experts came together to understand how electro-mobility can accelerate the energy transition. Reducing vehicle emissions is one thing, but a vast number of “batteries on wheels” can also enable rapid grid expansion. IRENA were one of the experts, and their analysis says … [Read more...]
Hydrogen Fuel Cell trucks can decarbonise heavy transport
Patrick Molloy at Rocky Mountain Institute runs through the pros and cons of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs). The big pluses are that hydrogen has an energy density of around 120 MJ/kg, almost three times more than diesel or gasoline. Half the energy generated by an internal combustion engine is wasted as heat, whereas electric drivetrains used by FCEVs only lose 10%. Nikola Motors, a U.S. maker of hydrogen trucks, claims its vehicles can get … [Read more...]
Shipping: commercially viable zero emission deep sea vessels by 2030
Last year the International Maritime Organization, recognising the slow progress the sector had made, set ambitious targets to reduce shipping emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008. Companies started lining up to face the challenge. But the shipping sector is very energy intensive. Bunker fuel costs can account for 24 - 41% of total shipping costs, so any clean fuel transition must be competitively priced. The fact that alternatives … [Read more...]
Accelerating electromobility in east Europe (part 2): buses
Sarah Keay-Bright plots an affordable pathway for low income nations to reduce the cost of bus electrification and scale up private investment. The first step is to put a true figure on the total cost of ownership (TCO) for electric buses versus existing conventional fossil fuel ones. Externalities such as air pollution are often left out. Subsidies, fuel and vehicle taxes also play a role. Every country is different, because of matters that … [Read more...]
Accelerating electromobility in east Europe: a how-to guide (part 1)
While record electric vehicle (EV) sales in high income countries keep making headlines they’re struggling to take off anywhere else. Sarah Keay-Bright plots a pathway for change. Like anywhere else, public investment must come first, carefully paving the way for private to follow. So that means getting the tax regime right. As taxes rise to disincentivise fossil cars those revenues will fall as people go electric. So they need to be replaced. … [Read more...]
Grid balancing: Electric Cars are a lot like water heaters, so relax
Electric water heaters consume as much power as electric cars, drawing on the grid in much the same way: everyone’s doing it at roughly the same time of day. The U.S. already has 60m such heaters and manages to balance the grid with no problem. So adding tens of millions of electric cars should be very manageable even without direct control of when the cars charge, says Jim Lazar at the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP). It only takes two to … [Read more...]
Lightweight Gasoline Cars: a necessary 30-year stop gap?
We should all be driving electric vehicles. But we have to wait for renewable electric grid capacity to support them all, charging points everywhere, and enough new batteries to be manufactured and put in all the new, affordable BEVs. And we’re running out of time. An interim solution has come from a study by MIT and Ford. David Chandler, writing for MIT, explains the study, which says that an interim solution – for certain regions - is … [Read more...]
Member States must decide: cash for climate or cash for carbon?
Over 3 billion euros of EU money meant for Europe’s poorer regions could be up for grabs by the fossil fuel industry if EU Member States do not change their current position on 25 June. The funding, which is part of the 374 billion Euro ‘Cohesion Policy’ pot, was - in the European Commission’s proposal - meant to go to sustainable economic activities. Yet if EU Member States get their way, a significant portion of the funding would be made … [Read more...]
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