The new BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, published on 16 June, shows that the world only narrowly escaped an oil crisis last year, thanks to a large increase of production in the US.
The figures in the famous Review â the publicationâs 63rd annual edition â show âhow geopolitical events in a number of countries continued to impact oil production in 2013, with Libya suffering the largest single decline in the face of renewed civil unrest. Those disruptions, however, were offset by a big increase in oil production in the US â driven by the massive investment in production from shale and other âtightâ formations. As a net result, average oil prices remained unusually stable â albeit at levels exceeding $100 per barrel for a third consecutive year.â
The Review notes that âglobal oil production did not keep pace with the growth in global consumption, rising by just 560,000 b/d or 0.6%. The US (+1.1 million b/d) recorded the largest growth in the world and the largest annual increment in the countryâs history for a second consecutive year. The US accounted for nearly all (96%) of the non-OPEC output increase of 1.2 million b/d (the strongest since 2002) to reach a record 50 million b/d. Increases in Canada (+210,000 b/d) and Russia (+150,000 b/d) offset declines in Syria (-120,000 b/d), the UK and Norway (-80,000 b/d each) and Australia (-70,000 b/d). OPEC output fell by 600,000 b/d, the first decline since 2009. Declines in Libya (-520,000 b/d), Iran (-190,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (-110,000 b/d) and Nigeria (-100,000 b/d) outweighed an increase in the UAE (+250,000 b/d).â
BPâs Review also shows that âglobal energy demand accelerated in 2013 but, reflecting the weakness of the global economy, growth of 2.3% remained slightly below the historical average⌠Energy consumption in the emerging economies grew below their long-term average rate, rising by 3.1%, driven by slower growth in China. However, consumption in the mature economies of the OECD grew by a higher-than-average rate of 1.2% – entirely as a result of strong growth in the US. As a result the gap between growth in the OECD and non-OECD narrowed to levels not seen since 2000.â
Speaking at the launch of the BP Review on 16 June in Moscow, BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: âThe Review again demonstrates the strength of the flexible global energy system in adapting to a changing world. The major disruptions to production seen throughout 2013 were balanced by continued rises in production elsewhere. This underlines the importance of continuing to secure these new supplies through continued access to new resources, policies to encourage markets and investment, and the application of new technologies worldwide.â
BP Chief Economist Christof RĂźhl noted, âThe huge investments seen in the US have been encouraged and enabled by a favourable policy regime. And this has resulted in the US delivering the worldâs largest increase in oil production last year. Indeed, the US increase in 2013 â up by 1.1 million barrels a day – was one of the biggest annual oil production increases the world has ever seen.â
Elsewhere, the impact of policy on energy âwas seen in continued robust growth in renewable energy â albeit from a low base. Renewables now account for more than 5% of global power output and, including biofuels, for nearly 3% of primary energy consumption.â However, the Review notes, âthe challenge of sustaining expensive subsidy regimes has become visible where penetration rates are highest, namely in the below-average growth of Europeâs leading renewable producers, who are grappling with weak economic growth and strained budgets.â