The success of energy crops depends on many things. But the first link in the chain is a weak one: natural photosynthesis, the conversion of light into energy by plants. The problem is the efficiency of photosynthesis is no match for that of a modern solar PV cell. And while solar technology keeps improving, mother nature â not a signatory to the Paris Agreement â has no plans to do so. Any progress must come from biotechnology which is slow … [Read more...]
No Energiewende without Wärmewende: making Germanyâs Heating emissions climate neutral (…nearly)
In Germany, space and water heating in buildings accounts for almost a third of total final energy consumption. Because over 90% of its 22m buildings are fuelled by oil and gas, that makes the sector emissions very intensive. The governmentâs ambition is to have a "nearly climate neutral building stock" by 2050. But although those emissions have fallen by 44% since 1990, progress has largely stagnated since 2011. Freja Eriksen at Clean Energy … [Read more...]
âClimate leaderâ UK: why did low-carbon electricity generation stall in 2019?
In 2019, just 1TWh of low-carbon electricity (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass) was added in the UK. Thatâs after a decade of adding an average of 9TWh/year. Why? The UK needs to know, given an extra 15TWh/year is required until 2030 to meet emissions goals on top of the planned electrification of transport and heating. Carbon Briefâs Simon Evans runs through their thorough analysis. Wind power alone rose by 8TWh in 2019, but was offset by … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEAâs WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this yearâs IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Decarbonising industry: how much policy-driven adoption is needed to let the market take over
Decarbonising industry is one of the worldâs greatest challenges. The costs, today, are huge and therefore the technology adoption required has hardly started. But several technologies already exist. Gbemi Oluleye at Imperial College (UK) explains the first step is to measure the market size for each sub-sector, then estimate how much policy-driven adoption is required to achieve the cost reductions that make the change viable. After that, no … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 4 of 5): Nuclear, biomass and CCS
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Briefâs Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its âbase caseâ global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the âaccelerated caseâ itâs 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japanâs. 85% of … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germanyâs existing âpioneerâ wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants â launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they canât find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germanyâs energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEAâs WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Lithuania shows way to integrated EU energy future
As Lithuania and the Baltic Nations turn away from nuclear power and towards increased solar and wind energy production, one city is shifting towards a new energy future. Elektrenai, or Electricity City, once powered an entire nation. Its three, soaring red-and-white smokestacks were its pride and joy, and heralded in popular songs and propaganda films. The city around the power plant was built to house the workers who ensured enough oil and … [Read more...]
Britain has shifted 30% of its electricity away from fossil fuels in just nine years
Britainâs extraordinary energy transition is in part down to increased energy efficiency: put simply, less electricity was needed, whatever the source. But coal is still essential during spikes in demand. Given coal generation is due to be phased out by 2025, the country will need to find alternative power sources to cope during extreme weather events. And that overall decline in electricity demand is sure to be reversed as more vehicles and … [Read more...]
Bioenergy carbon capture: Climate snake oil or 1.5C panacea?
Most models for meeting 1.5â or 2â climate change targets suggest we will be using bioenergy carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) to mop up the worldâs total annual CO2 emissions by around 2070 (for 2â). This means moving from todayâs three BECCS power plants to 16,000 by 2060. But, explains Paul Behrens of Leiden University, large-scale BECCS is a âmonumentally tricky idea,â and, while aiming to fix climate disruption, it makes many things … [Read more...]
Estonia needs a plan â and support â to get rid of its dirty oil shale
The need for a transition to sustainable energy is widely felt in Estonia, but after twenty years of talking, Estoniaâs dirty oil shale industry is still carrying on. In fact, thanks to lower taxes, a boom in oil shale mining is expected. Estonian Green Movement, a member of Bankwatch, recently presented the national parliament with a proposal for a strategic oil shale exit plan. According to Teet Randma, national campaigner for Bankwatch in … [Read more...]
Decarbonising heavy industry can’t be done without large-scale CCS effort
The decarbonisation will require a profound transformation, writes David Hone, Chief Climate Change Advisor at Shell. Shellâs Sky climate scenario shows it can't be done without large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS). A new initiative should boost progress on CCS. … [Read more...]
EU policy must wake up to carbon dioxide removal
Most scenarios to meet the Paris Agreementâs targets require negative emissions technologies. However, carbon dioxide removal is not part of the EUâs climate policy yet. Its integration presents a serious challenge to the EUâs low-carbon policy paradigm and experience, write Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Vivian Scott of the University of Edinburgh and James Palmer of the University of Bristol. … [Read more...]