Energy Post

Daily reports on the European and Global energy transition

IEA report: global manufacturing capacity is expanding rapidly for solar, wind, batteries, electrolysers, heat pumps

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The IEA summarises its special briefing, “The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing.” It’s a global update on recent progress in key regions, focussing on five technologies – solar PV, wind, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – critical to the energy transition. It should be read to keep decision makers informed of investment trends and the impact of industrial strategies. Overall, manufacturing capacity for these technologies is expanding … [Read more...]

Financing Renewable Hydrogen globally: ramp up to 2030 only needs $150bn/year

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Dolf Gielen, Priyank Lathwal and Silvia Carolina Lopez Rocha at the World Bank present a thorough review of the pathway to financing global clean renewable hydrogen over the coming decades. The wind and solar that powers production will continue to get cheaper, and so will electrolyser costs as they scale up. Nevertheless, the total financing will still be considerable. World Bank analysis shows around $30tn between now and 2050 will be needed … [Read more...]

Five charts on the Energy Transition: the 2020s is the decade of maximum disruption. By 2030 the endgame will be clear

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Sam Butler-Sloss and Kingsmill Bond at RMI present a succinct summary of why the energy transition matters, how the 2020s is the era of maximum disruption, and how by 2030 the transition’s endgame will be apparent (though far from complete). Four key technologies are already entering the exponential growth stage: solar, wind, EVs and heat pumps. As early as 2030 their cheapness will flush away the fossil equivalents in succeeding decades, say the … [Read more...]

Global “explosive” growth means 1 in 3 new cars will be electric by 2030. But SUV emissions could wipe out those gains

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More than a third of all new vehicles sold globally in 2030 will be electric, according to the IEA. That’s a doubling of its prediction made only two years ago. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the report. The IEA describes the growth as “explosive”: from just 1% of global car sales in 2017, to 14% last year, and now 18% expected by the end of 2023. China has consistently dominated those sales while new policies in the U.S. and EU are … [Read more...]

How can Europe stop U.S. and China dominance of cars and batteries without being protectionist?

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European and Chinese car and battery makers are making plans to set up plants in the U.S. to take advantage of their big new “made in the USA” subsidies. They can then ship their vehicles to Europe to sell into its very large and generously subsidised company car market. This puts electric vehicle production in Europe at a serious disadvantage. As William Todts at T&E explains, the EU must respond, instead of effectively assisting the U.S. … [Read more...]

CO2 emissions from Land Use: country-level data for turning “emitters” into “sinks”

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Until carbon capture technologies take off (if at all!), the world’s CO2 removals depend entirely on nature. Clemens Schwingshackl, Wolfgang Obermeier and Julia Pongratz at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, writing for Carbon Brief, review the latest data on “carbon fluxes” which measure whether the land is a net “source” of carbon or a “sink.” Flux measurements are categorised: deforestation, forestation, wood-harvest emissions, removals … [Read more...]

Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year

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The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]

Record clean-power growth in 2023: is Coal and Gas decline now structurally embedded?

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Last year, wind and solar reached a record 12% of global electricity generation, according to think tank Ember’s latest global electricity review. The overall share of all forms of low-carbon electricity rose to almost 40% of total generation. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief goes through the Ember review which heralds this as the moment fossils began their permanent decline. Ember calls it “structural” and “enduring” because previous declines only … [Read more...]

Wind Turbines: how dependent is the EU on China?

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Joseph Webster at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center takes stock of the European wind sector’s dependence on China. Nobody wants geopolitics and a worsening relationship with Beijing to disrupt positive cooperation in the urgent energy transition. The news is mostly good: the dependence is low because the international trade in turbines is constrained by weight-to-value ratios, transportation costs, and local content requirements. In … [Read more...]

Renewables “cost of capital” in Europe lower than oil, gas, coal. What the U.S. and China can learn

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The ultimate price of anything is highly dependent on the cost of capital needed to put it in place. That cost reflects the risks financial markets perceive. And policy certainty reduces risk. Gireesh Shrimali, Christian Wilson and Xiaoyan Zhou at Oxford University, writing for WEF, summarise their global study which shows the cost of capital for different energy technologies, and therefore which ones will trend upwards and dominate. They cover … [Read more...]

IEA’s global “CO2 Emissions in 2022” report: by sector, fuel, region, heating +more

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The IEA has published “CO2 Emissions in 2022”, giving estimates of CO2 emissions from all energy sources and industrial processes globally. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt. Emissions from various sources (sector, fuel, region, heating, etc.) are broken down, with reasons for why the change happened. The report is part of the IEA’s first global stocktake of the … [Read more...]

‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’ explainer: 40%+ of the top low-carbon technologies must be made in the EU by 2030

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The EC’s new series of proposed targets and reforms, contained in its Green Deal Industrial Plan, aim to ensure that at least 40% of the EU’s low-carbon technologies will be made within its borders by 2030. The eight “strategic net-zero technologies” are: Solar (power and thermal); Onshore and offshore wind; Batteries and energy storage; Heat pumps and geothermal; Electrolysers and fuel cells; Sustainable biogas/biomethane; CCS; Grid … [Read more...]

Silicon Valley Bank failed. Don’t blame the Climate Tech it backed

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Silicon Valley Bank in the U.S. was a favourite for climate tech start-ups. So its recent collapse inevitably raised questions over whether those start-ups and by extension the whole climate innovation ecosystem was much more fragile than previously thought. Rushad Nanavatty, Colm Quinn and Amy Yanow Fairbanks at RMI explain why that’s not the case. Instead, it was an old-fashioned bank run caused by poor risk management, weakened regulation of … [Read more...]

Hydrogen’s innovation pipeline: signals strong ahead of World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, May 9-11, 2023

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The IEA and the European Patents Office have, for the first time, reported on patents filed worldwide to get a measure of the innovations we’re seeing in the hydrogen sector, summarised here by Ian Shine. Overall, Europe and Japan are leading. Although the U.S. is a close third, with 20% of the total, their filings have declined compared to the previous decade. The fastest growth is in China (15.2%) and South Korea (12.2%). There has been a … [Read more...]

Critical Minerals: will there be enough to meet the 2050 net-zero emissions target?

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If the production and processing of critical minerals cannot keep up with the accelerating adoption of batteries, EVs, wind turbines and solar PV technologies, the pace and success of the global energy system transformation will be put at risk. In this explainer, Lilly Yejin Lee and James Glynn at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University address the big questions, drawing on the data underlying the IEA’s “The Role of Critical … [Read more...]