To reach net zero by 2050, babies born today must have CO2 footprints ten times smaller over their lifetimes than their parents and grandparents. In rich countries itâll be fifteen times, while in emerging economies like India and China itâll be around four times smaller. Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen and Hyeji Kim at the IEA summarise how they have calculated the average allowable lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth. Taking the two extremes, the … [Read more...]
E-fuels for cars are expensive, and pollute the air as much as petrol
MEPs and governments are currently deciding on an EC proposal for all new cars sold from 2035 to be 100% zero-emissions. Here, T&E present test results that show e-fuels should not be allowed to replace petrol. T&E are concerned that e-fuels are being promoted as a way to prolong the life of ICE vehicles. But their tests show that e-fuels produce just as much NOx, three times more carbon monoxide, and twice as much ammonia. Though e-fuels … [Read more...]
COP26 accepted the science like never before. It should make a difference
Leading scientists, writing for Carbon Brief, explain how COP26 gave far greater recognition to science than any of the previous COPs. The scientific evidence from the latest IPCC reports was explicitly acknowledged in the Glasgow Climate Pact. That is a significant advance, say the authors. Decision-making guided by science can focus quantitively on carbon budgets, temperatures, climate change, the causes, and therefore the emissions-reductions … [Read more...]
How much Carbon Capture will Germany need? Both nature-based and technological
Yet more studies have been published that show Germany needs carbon removal to meet its emissions targets. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub add two, from the German Energy Agency and the Ariadne report (funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research), to those that already exist to shine more light on a carbon capture pathway. The main observation is that nature-based solutions (LULUCF: land use, land use change and forestry) … [Read more...]
Methane Removal: an overlooked climate solution that could cut temperatures by 1°C?
If you think CO2 removal isnât getting enough attention, methane removal is getting virtually none. There are attempts to reduce methane emissions directly from fossil fuel production. But Rob Jordan at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment describes studies and models that conclude we should be looking at large and wide scale reduction and capture of methane. A 40% reduction in global methane emissions by 2050 could reduce peak … [Read more...]
Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications
Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub review five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). They start by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This … [Read more...]
EU: Slow-moving CO2 targets for cars put EV battery boom at risk
Europeâs battery manufacturers are positioning themselves to be global leaders. Their project pipeline will be enough to power a new European car fleet that is 75% battery-electric by 2030. Thatâs 38 European gigafactories by 2030 (fully funded, part-funded and proposed), âŹ39.5 billion worth in investments, creating 44,000 direct factory jobs. But existing CO2 emissions cut targets imposed on car manufacturers â a leading driver of demand for … [Read more...]
What if Carbon Capture fails? Modelling the consequences and solutions
Most policy scenarios being used by governments include carbon capture as a vital tool to reduce emissions. Though itâs far from proven at scale, models assume that between 2030 and 2050 carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will get its act together and deliver on its part in the net-zero puzzle. Assuming that will happen, burning fossil fuels can continue for longer. But Neil Grant and Ajay Gambhir at Imperial College London, writing for Carbon Brief, … [Read more...]
CCS: Identifying the best underground locations for storing CO2 can take 10 years, so letâs start now
Underground geological formations have more space to store CO2 than weâll ever need, by orders of magnitude. But the process of assessing the best locations can take up to ten years, so that work needs to start now, say Raimund Malischek and Samantha McCulloch at the IEA. The main constraints are technical (which porous rock formations absorb CO2 most easily, etc.), while the displacement of land use and public acceptance must also be considered. … [Read more...]
EEMPA solvent and CO2 mineralisation can take us one step closer to our carbon capture goals
If the models are correct that global carbon emissions will keep rising until at least 2040 then carbon capture and storage (CCS) is essential. And most of the vast amounts of CO2 we must capture wonât be âutilisedâ as itâs more than we can possibly use. So storage is an essential part of the equation, explains Jim Conca. He scopes out the problem before looking at two innovations that can bring costs down and bring the technology one step closer … [Read more...]
Updated NDCs: World committing to 0.5% emissions cuts by 2030. It should be 45%
The latest national climate pledges, submitted over the new year, show that the world is nowhere near meeting our emissions reductions goals. Analysis of the 48 updated ânationally determined contributionsâ (NDCs) submitted so far (everyone must submit by the end of this year), covering nations responsible for 29% of global emissions, shows we will have 0.5% lower emissions in 2030 compared to 2010. Thatâs way off the target 45% reduction needed. … [Read more...]
How the global âcarbon budgetâ is calculated, and predictions improved
What is the worldâs remaining âcarbon budgetâ? Or, how much more CO2 can the Earth take before we know weâll miss our 1.5oC (and 2oC) goals for 2050. Making those calculations is not easy and IPCC benchmark estimates inevitably include levels of uncertainty in the final answer. Kasia Tokarska at the ETH Zurich Institute and Damon Matthews at Concordia University summarise their research that narrows down that uncertainty, making life a little … [Read more...]
U.S. supports carbon capture R&D and commercialisation
Many are hoping that the new U.S. administration becomes a climate leader. Nowhere is leadership needed more than in the field of carbon capture. Most net zero pathways give it an essential and major role, yet the possible solutions are still in their infancy. Anne Canavati at the Atlantic Council looks at the new bills being passed in Washington that appear to be the beginnings of a serious push to develop and commercialise Carbon Dioxide … [Read more...]
CCUS âgasphilicâ process could double the conversion rate of CO2 into useful fuels
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is proving very expensive. So rather than simply store the CO2 underground itâs better to turn it into something that you can sell. Hence, much work is being directed at turning CO2 into transportation fuels or chemical feedstocks by focussing on the science of reactive materials: the other chemicals in the soup, using different catalysts, and even designing the right nanostructures to maximise the results. MITâs … [Read more...]
A pathway for profitable CCS in California
A study from the energy departments of Stanford University, from where Kara Glenwright writes, lays out a pathway for California to capture and store up to 60 Mt (million tonnes) of CO2 a year. 76 site locations have been identified where work could start immediately to store 20 Mt/yr profitably under the existing low carbon rules. But first a raft of clarifications on the laws is needed, showing that the success of CCS doesnât just depend on the … [Read more...]