The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
Coal exit saves money when public health, land degradation costs added – analysis
Coal is cheap. In countries historically reliant on it, as well as emerging economies still building plants, switching to cleaner energy just doesn’t seem to add up. That’s when you’re only looking at your national energy system costs. But the externality costs of air pollution, public health and a degraded local environment are rarely factored in to the equation. When they are, explains Sebastian Rauner writing for Carbon Brief, abandoning coal … [Read more...]
Bounceback or Recession? Modelling the impact on electricity prices to 2025
Carlos Perez Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool models three scenarios to understand the factors that are having the biggest impact on – and thereby make predictions for - electricity prices, revenues, energy source merit order, and emissions in the EU. Other parameters in the scope of their analysis include oil prices, gas prices, commodities markets, carbon taxes, and the EUA/emissions market. Clearly, collapsing prices are profoundly distorting … [Read more...]
Stimulus opportunity: Hand all carbon taxes to households
Governments worldwide now have the opportunity to radically rethink how household consumption can be stimulated, and where that money can come from. And every serious politician knows a radical change in fiscal policy is a rare opportunity to shape perceptions and values. This could be that moment for carbon taxes. Gerard Wynn at IEEFA first notes the success they have had in reducing emissions in the EU. With a rise in the CO2 price on the … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: Covid-19 lockdown kicks open the door to a net-zero pathway
Working from home and minimal travel are “no brainer” ways to drastically reduce emissions. They’ve never been tried on a nationwide scale anywhere. Now they are, everywhere. Everyone is doing their best to make it work. Next, food waste should also be in decline, hopefully. Even if panic stockpiling happens, people’s mindsets are being changed as they try to use everything they’ve bought. The act of re-thinking what and how much we eat, in every … [Read more...]
IEA: Three ways governments can keep Renewables growth on track
Before the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was set to be another record year for renewables installations. That is now looking very unlikely. Heymi Bahar at the IEA identifies three main challenges facing the growth of renewables due to the global economic consequences of the pandemic: Supply chain disruptions, anywhere, will surely lead to delays in completing projects everywhere; Compounding those delays, major renewables incentives expire at the … [Read more...]
Will China build more Coal to stimulate the economy?
Could China ramp up coal generation – of the order of hundreds of GW by 2030 - as part of its efforts to stimulate its economy and recover from the coronavirus slump? The thinking is that building a coal plant converts faster into economic growth than the equivalent spent on renewables. In the previous decade, building coal plants was an effective part of China’s economic growth plan that secured its place as the world’s second largest economy. … [Read more...]
Covid-19 and the EU car industry: any support should lock in EV targets
The coronavirus slump has come suddenly and hit hard. The deep thinking has already begun on the economics needed to turn around that slump without damaging our rising emissions ambitions. Julia Poliscanova at Transport & Environment looks at the car industry. Some have called for the new CO2 standards coming in 2020 to be postponed (though, notably, VW and BMW still support them). She explains that total car sales were already declining in … [Read more...]
Biogas and Biomethane’s untapped potential across the world
The IEA’s World Energy Outlooks have no doubt that electrification alone cannot meet our climate goals. That’s why natural gas continues to play a major role. But biogas and biomethane have the potential to replace 20% of that gas, says the IEA’s special report “Outlook for biogas and biomethane: Prospects for organic growth”. At present only a fraction of that is being utilised. Here the IEA summarises their comprehensive report. Costs are the … [Read more...]
New EU Industrial Strategy focuses on emissions, but is it enough?
This month the European Commission released its new EU Industrial Strategy to set the direction of travel for the EU economy in the context of the European Green Deal. Energy-intensive industries - like steel, cement, aluminium, paper and chemicals - account for roughly 17% of EU emissions and have struggled to reduce them in recent years. But Johanna Lehne at E3G doubts the strategy is enough to meet the ambition of becoming the first … [Read more...]
Construction emissions: “mass wood” prototypes halve CO2, rapid modular deployment, 18 stories
Building and construction emissions account for two-thirds of the global total, with one tenth coming from the construction phase alone. David Chandler at MIT reviews their research, in collaboration with a range of specialist companies, into wooden buildings. Their construction emissions should be as low as half that of concrete or steel. The key is the development of large scale, cross-laminated “mass wood”. Factory built modules can be … [Read more...]
How underground CCS works: low leakage risk, 2%
It’s not just the high upfront costs and the absence of a profitable business model that’s stalling the take-off of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). There are fears that CO2 stored underground will leak over the thousands of years it needs to be sequestered. The companies that put it there will be long gone. If you aren’t around to take the blame and pay the penalty, why bother doing it properly? Stephanie Flude at Oxford University and Juan … [Read more...]
EU Green Deal: meeting targets by lowering non-EU neighbour emissions too
The EU‘s Green Deal and its increasingly ambitious transition policies cannot be limited to its member states, writes Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega at the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. For its emissions targets to be met in a meaningful way the EU needs to ensure its neighbours to the east and in North Africa follow. The danger is that carbon intensive industries simply shift to those neighbours, and their products get imported back in. … [Read more...]
Are national fossil fuel car bans compatible with EU laws, intra-trade, movement?
A growing number of EU nations are announcing laws to phase out the sale of new fossil fuel cars within the next 20 years. But are the proposed bans compatible with EU laws, or even workable given cross border trade and movement rights? If you are Dutch, why not buy your new petrol car in Belgium, then drive it back to the Netherlands? How do you enforce CO2 targets with foreign haulage fleets transiting through your nation? Eoin Bannon at … [Read more...]
Two new designs, GSR and MA-ATR, to make “blue” Hydrogen cheaper
What’s the best way to make clean hydrogen? Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) is the most common and cheapest way of producing hydrogen, but it also produces CO2 emissions. Capturing that CO2 is complex and costly. Schalk Cloete presents research on two new designs for “blue” hydrogen (blue = derived from natural gas/coal with carbon capture/CCS). He describes in detail Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) and Membrane-Assisted Autothermal Reforming … [Read more...]
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