Sarah Keay-Bright plots an affordable pathway for low income nations to reduce the cost of bus electrification and scale up private investment. The first step is to put a true figure on the total cost of ownership (TCO) for electric buses versus existing conventional fossil fuel ones. Externalities such as air pollution are often left out. Subsidies, fuel and vehicle taxes also play a role. Every country is different, because of matters that … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
IEA: Big energy firms cannot ignore the Transition
Alessandro Blasi and Alberto Toril of the IEA look at how oil and gas majors are still investing very little - of the order of a single percentage point - in clean energy projects. What they are doing in response to new anti-fossil climate policies is increasing investment in short cycle projects that generate cash and returns quickly, minimising risk. This is a questionable strategy, given the fundamental shift away from thermal power and fossil … [Read more...]
UN climate summit: which nations are leading, which failing
Ahead of the UN climate summit in New York on September 23rd, where countries are expected to set themselves more ambitious targets and roadmaps than they did in Paris in 2015, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics looks at the emissions league table. There are some surprises at the top: Ethiopia, Morocco and India, though he points out being at the top can still be a long way from doing enough to meet the 1.5â goal. At the bottom are Australia, the … [Read more...]
Lightweight Gasoline Cars: a necessary 30-year stop gap?
We should all be driving electric vehicles. But we have to wait for renewable electric grid capacity to support them all, charging points everywhere, and enough new batteries to be manufactured and put in all the new, affordable BEVs. And weâre running out of time. An interim solution has come from a study by MIT and Ford. David Chandler, writing for MIT, explains the study, which says that an interim solution â for certain regions - is … [Read more...]
2018 investment in renewables 12% down on 2017
At $272.9bn, 2018 investment in renewables capacity was 12% down on the previous year. Despite this, renewablesâ investment was three times the total for coal and gas-fired generation capacity combined in 2018. Over the last decade, $2.6tn was invested in renewables (half going to solar), quadrupling capacity to 1,650GW. Consequently, renewablesâ share of electricity generation reached 12.9%, up from 11.6% in 2017. This avoided an estimated 2bn … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEAâs WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
âHard-to-abateâ sectors need Hydrogen. But only 4% is âgreenâ
40% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from âhard-to-abateâ industry sectors like industrial processing and transport. Electrification wonât be enough. They also need hydrogen, argue Patrick Molloy and Leeann Baronett at Rocky Mountain Institute. Hydrogen production is already well established and growing. But itâs mainly for the chemical industry, which never meant it to be âgreenâ: sure enough, only 4% of current hydrogen production is … [Read more...]
Peak coal on the horizon: a country-by-country review
Though the global coal fleet still increased by 17GW in the first half of 2019, net of retirements, the pipeline is definitely shrinking. Two thirds of proposed projects never even get started. Notably, in China existing coal plants have been running, on average, only 50% of the time since 2015, evidence of a large excess of capacity. But is it enough? The IPCCâs pathway to 1.5C requires unabated coal power generation to fall by 55-70% by 2030 … [Read more...]
Why coordinated Dutch-German climate action is critical for Europe
Both the Netherlands and Germany are about to propose major new national climate measures. If the proposals become law, they will enforce some of the most stringent national targets for GHG reductions in the world. Itâs why, on 22 August, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will host a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her âclimate cabinetâ. Coordinated Dutch-German climate action can make these neighbouring countries role models for … [Read more...]
NDC reporting: making the Paris Agreement Transparency Framework work
For the system of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be effective, every countryâs reporting processes need to be appropriate to their economic level, honest and accurate. That means the Paris Agreementâs Transparency Framework, including the Common Reporting Tables (CRT) for greenhouse gas inventories, and Common Tabular Formats (CTF) to track progress on their NDCs, needs to be finalised and agreed upon, and fast, says the IDDRIâs … [Read more...]
China’s coal needs Carbon Capture. Can U.S. knowledge help?
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a crucial role. We still live in a world where coal (mainly in developing countries) and gas (almost everywhere) continues to power growing economies. But the pipeline of new large-scale CCS facilities is nowhere close to what we need: around a hundred new units every year between 2020 and 2040, according to the Global CCS Institute. A report by the IFRI Centre for Energy … [Read more...]
Developing world urbanisation: a great opportunity for smartgrids, buildings efficiency
Rapid urbanisation in the developing world means millions of new buildings are going up. Now is the time to make sure they are energy efficient from the start, avoiding the major ârich worldâ headache of retrofitting. Given most of the developing world exists in hotter climates, cooling â unchecked - could account for as much as 40% of final electricity demand in some countries by 2050. To keep a cap on that, efficient buildings and air … [Read more...]
A cheap Carbon Capture breakthrough? MOF molecular cages that trap CO2
Carbon Capture is the Transitionâs great unknown. Big targets have been set but nobody knows how weâre going to meet them. It's clear we need utility-scale breakthroughs, and fast. And cheap. We take a look at one example of cutting edge research that could deliver both. Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energyâs SLAC Laboratory and Stanford University have taken the first images of CO2 molecules captured within a highly porous nanoparticle … [Read more...]
GDP – Gross Environmental Damage = actual wealth creation
We all know that GDP measures everything thatâs been paid for, both the good and the bad. There have already been studies that try to account for the âbadâ GDP that costs us in the long run and so adds less value than stated. Catherine Wolfram, at the Haas School of Business, takes a thoughtful look at Gross Environmental Damage which separates out the kind of GDP that weâre going to have to spend money cleaning up in the future. The GED concept … [Read more...]
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