Atlantic Council Global Energy Center experts and associates offer their template for drastically reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. It’s broken down into immediate, short (one to three years) and long term (beyond three years) actions. It’s wide-ranging and comprehensive. Some actions are already in play, including maximising gas storage, ready for next winter. Some are the ramping up of existing plans (clean energy, … [Read more...]
Germany’s electrification ambitions: TSOs scenario for 91% Renewables by 2045
The German TSOs submitted in January scenarios for their grid to 2037, making projections for increasing electrification. In addition, and for the first time, they included an ambitious and long term scenario to 2045. By pure chance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s response – to consider a reduction in its serious dependence on Russian energy imports – should make eyes turn sharply towards that 2045 scenario. Simon Göss at cr.hub, … [Read more...]
A massive expansion of domestic Renewable energy stops wars, not just climate change
Hans-Josef Fell at Energy Watch Group says bluntly that a massive expansion of domestic renewable energy generation over the last decade would not only have saved the planet from a future climate catastrophe, it would be stopping wars today. Firstly, 70% of Russia's state revenues come from oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear energy deals. State revenues fund its military. Secondly, an EU dependent on imports from any geopolitical adversary will … [Read more...]
Turkey: when electricity price ceilings amplify the pain of gas spikes and currency falls
Turkey’s rules for an electricity price ceiling may be well intentioned, but they are creating a price ladder that is causing those prices to rise too fast and too much, say Fuat OÄźuz at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazit University and ÇaÄźrı Peker at the Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey. When market participants are allowed to sell and buy electricity at distorted prices the effects of external shocks are amplified artificially. The main shocks … [Read more...]
Yamal-Europe gas pipeline shows how EU competition rules backfire during a shortage
Europe’s gas deficit has concentrated minds on the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline which runs from Russia to Germany via Belarus and Poland, built in the 1990s. Andrei Belyi at the University of Eastern Finland explains how the rules for booking capacity worked well during times when gas was in plentiful supply, but now works against Europe’s gas security since the shortages emerged in September. The rules are designed to maximise competition between … [Read more...]
COP26: a strategy for tackling “imported deforestation”
Palm oil, beef, cocoa, coffee, soy, and other agricultural products are responsible for deforestation in the producing countries. Of the 10m hectares of tropical forest lost each year, two-thirds can be unambiguously attributed to agricultural expansion and international trade is responsible for about half of this. The EC is due in December to unveil a legislative proposal to address the issue. Alain Karsenty and Nicolas Picard, writing for IFRI, … [Read more...]
Gas crunch: market and policy causes, and lessons learned
Andrei Belyi at the University of Eastern Finland says there are three main causes behind the huge rise in European gas prices. Everyone already understands that the reversal of the previous gas glut that gave us such low prices has been caused by a decline in European gas production, LNG imports and Russian gas deliveries. Added to that is the utilities’ reliance on spot contracts rather than termed contracts – great when prices were low – that … [Read more...]
What is your nation’s “deforestation footprint”? When imports cut down trees somewhere else
Behaviour change is now inextricably linked to the transition and must be part of the world’s emissions reduction strategy, and there are many different types of relevant behaviour and ways to measure the impacts. One is to look at deforestation, caused by chopping down trees to meet our consumer needs. To grasp whose behaviour has to change we need to appreciate to what extent deforestation in places like Brazil, Canada, Liberia, Vietnam etc., … [Read more...]
The Netherlands: a Blue Hydrogen economy now will ease a transition to Green
Barthold Schroot at EBN makes the case for blue hydrogen for the Netherlands now, to minimise emissions and make life easier for green hydrogen later. The country is a big consumer of natural gas that, realistically, cannot be quickly replaced with renewables. So what’s the best alternative to burning that gas and can be introduced the soonest? Green hydrogen production (emissions-free) will take time to reach scale as it needs to piggy-back off … [Read more...]
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan will reshape its growing Gas sector
Demand for natural gas in China is set to continue its rise, increasing by 7% to 9% annually to reach up to 500 bcm by 2025, explains Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe at the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. Domestic gas production has continued its significant growth too, driven by a surge in shale gas. Even then, gas imports – both pipeline and LNG - should increase to fulfil the rising supply/demand gap. This growing importance of gas in the energy … [Read more...]
Imported U.S. LNG: what’s its true climate footprint?
Importing LNG from the U.S., to replace coal, makes sense for Europe only if the total emissions including those throughout the chain of production are lower than the alternatives. Julian Wettengel at CLEW looks at reports that say the total methane emissions from the world’s largest oil and gas field – the Permian Basin in West Texas – are particularly high and may push it over that threshold. Flaring, venting and leakage are the main cause. … [Read more...]
UK’s net-zero ambition: counting all emissions, not just in-country
The UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has advised its government to go zero-carbon by 2050. But, say Joe Blakey and Marc Hudson of the University of Manchester, counting all emissions means counting the carbon footprint of imports too. Including these (and excluding emissions from exports) the UK’s footprint is 70% higher than the figure used by the CCC. The same is likely true for all high income economies. And the cost of successful … [Read more...]