Like most developing countries, the challenge of growing economies, increasing population and rapid urbanisation puts energy security above emissions reductions. So it is for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, says Duygu Sever in her report for IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. In this article she explains that all four countries nevertheless have high renewables deployment potential, and have already embraced wind and solar. To accelerate … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
IEA: Big energy firms cannot ignore the Transition
Alessandro Blasi and Alberto Toril of the IEA look at how oil and gas majors are still investing very little - of the order of a single percentage point - in clean energy projects. What they are doing in response to new anti-fossil climate policies is increasing investment in short cycle projects that generate cash and returns quickly, minimising risk. This is a questionable strategy, given the fundamental shift away from thermal power and fossil … [Read more...]
UN climate summit: which nations are leading, which failing
Ahead of the UN climate summit in New York on September 23rd, where countries are expected to set themselves more ambitious targets and roadmaps than they did in Paris in 2015, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics looks at the emissions league table. There are some surprises at the top: Ethiopia, Morocco and India, though he points out being at the top can still be a long way from doing enough to meet the 1.5℃ goal. At the bottom are Australia, the … [Read more...]
Can other technologies replicate Solar PV price reductions?
Catherine Wolfram at the Haas School of Business reviews the new book “How Solar Energy Became Cheap” by Greg Nemet. It traces Solar PV’s history from Bell Labs in 1954 through to the present. The phenomenal price drops mean today’s cost/kWh is 1,000 times lower than in the 1970s. The analysis is split into four epochs when output was dominated by US, Japanese, then German and finally Chinese production. How much were improvements thanks to sheer … [Read more...]
New EU green investment rules to make conservative German savers bite
Germany’s past renewables successes have been underpinned by government and public funds and guarantees. Its future will depend more and more on private investment, which means citizens and small investors must opt to put their money into green investments and take on risk. The good news is that surveys show citizens are very willing. The bad news is that few are actually doing it. Is it because the banks aren’t promoting sustainable investments, … [Read more...]
2018 investment in renewables 12% down on 2017
At $272.9bn, 2018 investment in renewables capacity was 12% down on the previous year. Despite this, renewables’ investment was three times the total for coal and gas-fired generation capacity combined in 2018. Over the last decade, $2.6tn was invested in renewables (half going to solar), quadrupling capacity to 1,650GW. Consequently, renewables’ share of electricity generation reached 12.9%, up from 11.6% in 2017. This avoided an estimated 2bn … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Wind power predictions doubled by factoring in far-future design improvements
Existing studies estimate all Europe’s potential total maximum annual generation from wind is between 16 and 21 petawatt hours (PWh), already over five times Europe’s existing electricity total from all sources (3.6PWh). A new study doubles that figure to 34.3PWh. The study claims to improve on the accuracy of two factors used in making these predictions, explains Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief. Firstly, it uses what it believes are realistic … [Read more...]
Gas v Electric new buildings: U.S. standards agency backs gas with out-of-date data, says RMI
Official reports matter. That’s why the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is taking to task the U.S.’s National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) which published a paper stating that all-electric systems are more carbon intensive and more costly than gas-fired systems in new buildings. The NIST paper assumed a high reliance on coal as the primary source for electricity generation in their Maryland case study. Those stats are out of date, … [Read more...]
Carbon-emitting gas, not renewables, is replacing U.S. nuclear
Ohio, USA, subsidises renewables. Now the Ohio State Legislature is fighting over a bill that will re-shape and extend that support to all clean energy, including nuclear. That’s how it should be, says Jim Conca. He reviews a report by regional transmission organisation PJM that says keeping nuclear plants open is far cheaper. Moreover, it’s far better for emissions. That’s because whenever a nuclear plant is shut down in the U.S. it is replaced … [Read more...]
$400bn in global fossil fuel consumption subsidies, twice that for renewables
At over $400bn in 2018, global fossil fuel consumption subsidies are more than double those for renewables. That makes sense while governments worldwide use energy subsidies to help poor consumers, and clean energy still makes up a smaller proportion of the global energy mix. But it makes the transition harder: cheaper fossil energy means more is consumed, and it’ll take longer for clean energy to compete it away. The IEA’s WEO Energy Analysts … [Read more...]
EU to help China fulfil its global climate obligations, and in return…
Last month’s launch of the EU China Energy Cooperation Platform (ECECP) should serve as great encouragement for EU energy firms looking to participate in the developing Chinese energy system. Up until now it’s been possible but challenging as firms have not been competing on a level-playing field. But that is set to change as a whole raft of factors mean the time is ripe for meaningful cooperation between the world’s two leading energy … [Read more...]
Energy Efficiency should target inefficient use, not all use
Energy efficiency should not just be a matter of reducing energy consumption. As renewables grow pricing and profits should encourage renewable consumption. After all, renewables aren’t a problem. And greater renewables consumption means less fossil fuels. Yet consumer pricing models with a low fixed price + high variable rate are designed to discourage all consumption, warns James Bushnell of the Energy Institute at Haas. He says we must … [Read more...]
Overbuild solar: it’s getting so cheap curtailment won’t matter
Avoiding curtailment made sense when solar generation was extremely expensive: don’t build solar beyond what you can store. However, that means solar must always wait for storage costs to decline and capacity grow. But with solar prices plummeting it can make economic sense to overbuild it, say Richard Perez, University at Albany, and Karl Rabago, Pace University. Oversized solar will deliver more energy in low light and reduce the need for … [Read more...]
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