Here we provide a written summary of the panel discussion “Wind of Change or Change of Wind? The future of Baltic Sea offshore investments” held on 12th September 2022 in Brussels. It’s a full summary of the 90 minute discussion (including audience questions), but it begins conveniently with a summary of the highlights. The Baltic Sea has the potential to develop over 90 GW of offshore wind capacity. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has delivered … [Read more...]
As spot market electricity prices break all records, what is the prediction for winter?
Spot market prices for electricity have been breaking all records, as European leaders and their ministers intensify their discussions on how to deal with the crisis. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, starts by explaining how the markets work, noting that price rises are indeed being driven by fossil prices and not CO2 certificates. Göss looks at how prices have climbed in Germany, France, the Baltics and Spain, and how the … [Read more...]
Don’t cap gas prices for consumers. It won’t reduce demand. Instead, subsidies must reward cuts in gas use
European nations are considering capping the price of gas that consumers pay, a subsidy that governments will pay for, to ensure households don’t freeze this winter. Daniel Gros at CEPS warns that this strategy will remove the incentive for consumers to cut their gas use, keeping international market prices high. Instead, governments should incentivise a reduction in gas use. Gros has modelled two strategies. The first is to pay households for … [Read more...]
How to ramp up Hydrogen under the new REPowerEU targets
What needs to be done to develop hydrogen as a major fuel in Europe as the continent looks to diversify away from Russian oil and gas supplies? The war in Ukraine has led to the EU substantially raising its hydrogen ambitions. While the earlier “Fit for 55” target for 2030 was set at 5.6 Mt, the new REPowerEU strategy has increased the target to 20 Mt, to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas. That means, for example, the use of hydrogen in industrial … [Read more...]
Energy security concerns are building momentum for Nuclear
The IEA’s latest report on nuclear power recommends a doubling of capacity by 2050. It emphasises that, though many advanced economies are planning a decline, 32 nations have nuclear today and reactors are now under construction in 19 countries. It’s evidence of a momentum behind nuclear power that should be further stimulated by recent spikes in oil, gas and electricity prices, says the IEA. Russia and China remain nuclear advocates, which … [Read more...]
If Russia cuts off its gas supply can we achieve EU storage targets for winter?
Calvin Triems at Energy Brainpool summarises their analysis of whether and how Europe can achieve its storage targets for 2022. There are four scenarios: “Base Case”; “Nordstream@40%” where there’s no change to Russia’s mid-June gas flow cut to 40%; “Nordstream@40% + No Freeport” where the unexpected fire in early June at the U.S. Freeport LNG terminal remains unresolved for months; “Nordstream@0% + No Freeport” where Russia cuts off supply … [Read more...]
Will price caps on Russian oil work? Three experts debate
Whatever the G7 does, the objective is to cut revenues flowing into Russia, not oil flowing out. And whatever the sanctions, getting compliance from neutral and pro-Russian countries will need a strong positive incentive. Hence the idea of a price cap which would keep prices low. Here, three experts – Edward Fishman and Brian O’Toole at the Atlantic Council, and Mark Mozur at S&P Global Commodity Insights (with background by Atlantic … [Read more...]
Imposing a $50/barrel tariff on Russian oil is the best sanction
Is there a way to impose sanctions on Russia that cuts its revenues without causing fossil fuel prices to balloon? The current strategy has seen oil prices rise to $120/barrel by mid-June, so although volumes are down Russia has seen no reduction in revenues. In other words, it has not achieved its objective, says Edward Chow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, he argues for imposing a big import tariff – like … [Read more...]
If Russia cuts its gas supplies to Germany, what happens next?
Replacing Russian pipeline gas to Europe in the short term is much more difficult than finding alternative sources for coal and oil. It’s why the EU hasn’t banned Russian gas. But what if Russia cuts off the supply? Benjamin Wehrmann at Clean Energy Wire looks at what the consequences and options are for Germany. Though Germany aims to wean itself off Russian supplies almost entirely by 2024, a sudden cut would have serious consequences. Storage … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: modelling the consequences for the European electricity market to 2050
Alex Schmitt, Christoph Kellermann, Calvin Triems and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool have used their modelling tools to update their predictions of how the European electricity market will develop over the next 30 years, given a target of 99% emission-free generation in 2050. Projections are made on generation (mix and volumes) and price. The big change from their last predictions is the Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s determination to ramp … [Read more...]
EU’s latest sanctions on Russian Oil: what are they and will it work?
On June 3, the EU agreed an embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products. Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the details of the latest sanctions imposed in response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and assesses the possible consequences. The aim is to cut oil imports from Russia by 90 percent by February 2023. A critical part of the sanctions is a ban on providing shipping insurance to Russian … [Read more...]
Critical minerals: price spikes are affecting Wind, Solar, Batteries, EVs
A wide range of critical minerals are needed for the energy transition. Tae-Yoon Kim at the IEA summarises the reasons why we should expect this to be a year of price spikes due in the main to the Russia-Ukraine war and post-lockdown supply chain bottlenecks. So severe is the problem that the long record of declining costs in clean energy technologies like solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles is being reversed. Although these crises will … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine stalls EU Biofuels, but accelerates its medium/long-term targets
Rising food and fuel costs are pushing several EU countries to freeze or lower 2022-2023 low-carbon blending mandates for transportation fuels. That will likely mean a rise in emissions, but only in the short term, says Cornelius Claeys at Stratas Advisors. However, the same policymakers understand that ending imports of fossil fuels from a belligerent Russia is an opportunity to raise low-carbon targets for the medium and long term. So, right … [Read more...]
Record Renewables additions for 2021 and 2022 despite supply bottlenecks prove Solar & Wind’s resilience
Despite – or perhaps because of – global market and political turmoil, renewable power is set to break another record in 2022. That’s after 2021 also saw record new capacity from solar, wind and other renewables worldwide. It’s mainly driven by solar PV in China and Europe as governments around the world take advantage of renewables’ energy security and climate benefits, according to the IEA’s latest Renewable Energy Market Update. 295GW of new … [Read more...]
Seven ways for the U.S. and Europe to enhance energy security and advance climate goals
Ending reliance on Russian fossil exports will need the U.S. and Europe to work together, explain Joseph Majkut, Nikos Tsafos and Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas producer and is able to increase output. At the same time, it must meet global emissions targets. The way to do it is to increase fossil exports temporarily whilst improving its carbon reduction measures (e.g. … [Read more...]
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