Avoiding curtailment made sense when solar generation was extremely expensive: don’t build solar beyond what you can store. However, that means solar must always wait for storage costs to decline and capacity grow. But with solar prices plummeting it can make economic sense to overbuild it, say Richard Perez, University at Albany, and Karl Rabago, Pace University. Oversized solar will deliver more energy in low light and reduce the need for … [Read more...]
IEA clean energy progress report: Only 7 technologies/sectors on track, 38 not
Of the 45 energy technologies and sectors assessed in the IEA’s latest Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) report, only 7 are on track with the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). It’s their latest and most comprehensive assessment of clean energy transitions. “On track” includes energy storage, EVs and solar PV. But buildings, car, flaring and methane emissions are still rising. This year’s TCEP puts much greater emphasis on … [Read more...]
U.S. Coal: firms go bankrupt as share of generation halves over 10 years
In the U.S. coal’s market share for power generation has halved in 10 years to 24%, from close to 50% in 2008. That year a record 1,172m tons was produced. But a combination of the rapid drop in solar and wind costs, continued competition from cheap gas, and ageing coal plants (most were built between 1965 and 1985) means that steep decline is set to continue, say Seth Feaster and Karl Cates of IEEFA U.S.. It’s why Cloud Peak Energy, the … [Read more...]
Solar intermittency: upbeat “annual” carbon reduction estimates miss the “hourly” reality
There is a maximum speed at which solar capacity can expand. You know you’ve passed it when insufficient storage means solar curtailment, or selling the daytime excess means curtailment of other clean energy generators. As solar grows, so too will this problem. Vincent Xia, at the Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, reports on a new Stanford study which says emissions predictions are not taking this into account, thus … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
Community Scale Solar plugs the gap between “rooftop” and utilities
Rooftop residential and utility solar exist at two ends of the scale. Is there a sweet spot between those two that can capture the advantages of small-scale (no transmission loss, grid resilience through distribution) and large (economies of scale, easy to invest in)? Yes, reports Laurie Stone of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and it’s being called Community-Scale Solar. More than a sweet spot, it can reach communities underserved by rooftop solar … [Read more...]
From rooftop solar to carbon divestment, California leads the transition
California doesn’t wait for Washington. As America’s most populous state by far, it is behaving like a separate nation when it comes to climate policies. Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies at IEEFA Australasia, says it has become a global leader in renewable energy. Renewables provided 34% of its total energy needs in 2018, and the business community sees economic success in further progress. The author runs through the highlights, … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
UK: Despite progress, 100% low-carbon is still a long way off
The UK transition is often cited as a success story. Coal’s contribution has dropped from 40% to 6%. Wind, solar and hydroelectric now generates more electricity than nuclear. Demand for electricity has also fallen. The carbon intensity of Britain’s electricity has almost halved, from over 500g of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour in 2006 to under 270g in 2018. The National Grid now expects to be able to operate a zero-carbon electricity system by 2025. But … [Read more...]
Barriers to intermittent renewables and battery storage come tumbling down
The astonishing growth of the renewable energy sector shows little sign of slowing, as costs continue to plummet, along with the cost of energy storage, to remove many of the barriers to using intermittent renewable generating sources in a range of applications. Much of this is down to the fact that the cost of battery energy storage is one third lower than this time last year. … [Read more...]
The rapid growth of solar integration into grids: learn from Germany
With the rapid electrification of Europe’s energy system, the network operators are facing a challenge. The integration of more and varied electricity generation is putting a strain on the growth of grids. Erik Rakhou and Chris Collins contrast the struggles the Netherlands is experiencing with the smoother ride navigated by Germany where in the 12 years to 2015 solar PV capacity rose around 100-fold from 0.44 GW to 39.7 GW. Greater investment, … [Read more...]
China plans UHV transmission lines that span continents
China’s Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) project aims to create a worldwide network of UHV transmission lines that can deliver electricity between continents. If successful, generating electricity in the most remote areas – think deserts and the Arctic – becomes viable, as does China’s ability to sell electricity directly to Europe. First, two main technological challenges have to be overcome: energy loss along transmission lines spanning … [Read more...]
Solar consumption and manufacturing: can Europe re-take the lead?
As a solar consumer Europe already plans to re-establish itself as a leader. European solar’s share of total consumption, 5% in 2018, is set to be 36% by 2050. There are three main drivers for progress: increasingly ambitious national targets, the rise of low-cost solar helped by the increase in CO2 costs, and digitalisation. But what about manufacturing? Practically all Europe’s solar cells are bought in cheaply from China and the Far East. … [Read more...]
Onsite solar and storage powers off-grid telecom towers
There are more than 3m telecom towers globally, and powering them is a $100bn market. It's a particularly important growth sector in developing countries. They are already using mobiles to leapfrog the laying of costly landlines, but because they lack grids that stretch to remote communities they need to power towers that are off the grid. Dr Thomas Hillig says as solar and storage costs continue to drop they are replacing diesel gensets as the … [Read more...]
Investing in gas: the effect of carbon taxes, gas prices, and the growth of renewables
Schalk Cloete presents his latest article looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a specific power sector. After reviewing onshore wind, nuclear and solar, he now looks at gas. His analysis of coal is to come. The major variables are increasing CO2 prices, and natural gas pricing. He adds that the growth of wind and solar should benefit load-following gas power plants: they are plugging the intermittency gap when electricity … [Read more...]
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