What is the best technology to balance the variable output of wind and solar? When there is little wind and sun the plant must produce power to compensate. When there’s too much wind and sun it must utilise that excess power. In other words, given the high capital cost of the new balancing technology it must do both profitably enough to cover the time sitting idle. A paper co-authored by Schalk Cloete looks at Gas Switching Reforming (GSR). The … [Read more...]
Biofuels “light-to-power” slump: because photosynthesis is no match for Solar PV
The success of energy crops depends on many things. But the first link in the chain is a weak one: natural photosynthesis, the conversion of light into energy by plants. The problem is the efficiency of photosynthesis is no match for that of a modern solar PV cell. And while solar technology keeps improving, mother nature – not a signatory to the Paris Agreement – has no plans to do so. Any progress must come from biotechnology which is slow … [Read more...]
No Energiewende without Wärmewende: making Germany’s Heating emissions climate neutral (…nearly)
In Germany, space and water heating in buildings accounts for almost a third of total final energy consumption. Because over 90% of its 22m buildings are fuelled by oil and gas, that makes the sector emissions very intensive. The government’s ambition is to have a "nearly climate neutral building stock" by 2050. But although those emissions have fallen by 44% since 1990, progress has largely stagnated since 2011. Freja Eriksen at Clean Energy … [Read more...]
U.S. EIA predicts Renewables will surpass Coal by 2021
Renewable electricity generation in the U.S. has risen so fast in the last 10 years that it’s expected to surpass coal by 2021, according to the latest report from the nation’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). This would have been “unthinkable” in 2010, says Dennis Wamsted at IEEFA. Back then, nationwide, utility-scale solar generated 1.29bn kWh and wind 94.6bn kWh. By 2021 solar will have risen almost a hundredfold to 122bn kWh and wind … [Read more...]
CCUS, nuclear, industrial heat, hydrogen, smart grids: “large unit” innovation needs more support
How do we accelerate innovation across all technologies? Simon Bennett at the IEA breaks down the task into “small unit” and “large unit” challenges. The first is easier and moves faster. Thanks to their small size and unit cost, heat pumps, EVs and solar panels benefit from mass production, mass deployment (100,000 to 100m units/year globally) and large customer markets with fierce competition. They can also easily leverage other fast-evolving … [Read more...]
High-efficiency “spacecraft” solar cells are coming down in price
Solar cells commonly used in spacecraft are highly efficient but too expensive to be used commercially down here on Earth. Two methods, HVPE (hydride vapour phase epitaxy) and the preferred MOVPE (metalorganic chemical vapour phase epitaxy), have been used to make these super-cells, reaching efficiencies of 29.1%. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) says its scientists have discovered a method, D-HVPE, that should achieve those … [Read more...]
The search for “thin film” solar PV: stable, efficient, non-toxic, abundant
Around 95% of the world’s solar modules are made with silicon. It’s stable against temperature and humidity fluctuations and we’ll never run out of it. But it’s quite inefficient at absorbing sunlight, and very brittle. So the silicon layers in PV have to be quite thick to capture sunlight and resist cracking, leading to heavy and bulky solar panels. The remaining 5% of solar modules are “thin film”, opening the way for game-changing lightweight … [Read more...]
2019-2024: competitive auctions will launch over 2/3rds of utility-scale renewables, says IEA
Government support for new utility-scale capacity is being replaced with competitive auctions, the surest sign that the commercial appetite for renewables - particularly solar PV and onshore wind - is growing strong. This article by the IEA pulls out the essential numbers from their annual Renewables 2019 report (their 5-year market analysis and forecast for renewable energy and technologies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors). The … [Read more...]
Distributed Solar: rooftop residential, commercial systems keep getting cheaper
In the U.S., PV module efficiency (median values) rose from 12.7% in 2002 to 18.4% in 2018, much of it in the last decade and a full percentage-point increase in the last year alone. The best modules are even more efficient, says John Rogers at the Union of Concerned Scientists. Improvements have come from manufacturing processes and cell architectures, and the increasing share of more-efficient mono-crystalline technologies: up from 40% in 2016 … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Better grid integration beats coal plant ramping to reduce wind, solar curtailment
Wind and solar curtailment is worst where these renewables are poorly integrated into the grid. The further their energy can reach the more regions they can service, thus minimising curtailment. If they don’t reach far, local coal plants must ramp down - but only if they’ve been retrofitted to be able to do so. It’s a problem faced by many countries: spend money on the retrofits or the integration? Writing for the Regulatory Assistance Project … [Read more...]
Creating a market to trade excess wind/solar between states (without outsourcing your emissions!)
How do you get neighbouring states, with different renewables mixes, and different emissions targets and penalties, to trade their surplus energy? It’s one of the biggest challenges to face the rapid growth of intermittent wind and solar. Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas describes how an “Energy Imbalance Market” (EIM) is operating across eight states in the west of the U.S. Bidding for your neighbour’s excess renewable energy is … [Read more...]
Offshore Wind: a new source of clean energy for Asia?
Offshore wind is seeing the same dramatic cost reductions as solar and onshore wind. Though still more expensive, it’s heading towards $60/MWh parity with them across Europe. The U.S., China and Taiwan are also experiencing impressive drops. It’s why global capacity nearly doubled in three years from 12GW in December 2015 to 23GW by the end of 2018. IEEFA’s briefing note “Offshore Wind Ready to Be Key Part of Energy Mix Globally – Top European … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
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