Michael Taylor at IRENA has summarised its latest studies that show how the cost of renewables are set to continue declining dramatically through to 2030. We all know how those costs declined in the last ten years. Going forward, the weighted average cost of electricity in the G20 countries from offshore wind could fall by almost 50% by 2030 from 2019 levels, onshore wind by around 45%, utility-scale solar PV by up to 55% and concentrated solar … [Read more...]
WEO 2020 means updated price predictions to 2040: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewables, Power
The combined effect of the global lockdown, more ambitious climate policies and the rise of renewables will have a significant effect on European power prices up to 2040, as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies. Carlos Perez-Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool uses their Power2Sim model to look at the data in the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook 2020 and make quantitative forecasts. The pandemic has caused structural distortions to the … [Read more...]
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2020 at a glance
This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This year’s WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated “Stated Policies Scenario” (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new “Delayed Recovery Scenario” (DRS: due to Covid), an updated “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS: what’s needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new “Net Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
Europe has enough Gas infrastructure. Why build more?
In early November a first vote is expected in the European Parliament on the Recovery & Resilience Facility’s €672.5bn budget. Esther Bollendorff at CAN Europe runs through the arguments against providing any funding for new gas infrastructure. She presents evidence to show that the EU is already oversupplied with gas import capacity, and all new fossil gas transmission projects have been rejected by the market since 2017. Solar and wind … [Read more...]
ELCC: how to measure grid stability as renewables are added
We cannot just swap 24/7 fossil fuel power plants for intermittent renewables. To prevent electricity shortfalls the capacity of a solar or wind plant must exceed that of the fossil fuel plant it replaces. But by how much? That’s the question that the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) metric is designed to answer. It’s not a new concept, but is now becoming very important. Mark Specht at the Union of Concerned Scientists explains the … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
Why promote Rooftop Solar when the Grid is so much cheaper?
Is rooftop solar in the U.S. getting more support than it deserves? One main argument from its advocates is that it will cut grid transmission and distribution costs that total hundreds of millions. Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas crunches some numbers to try to uncover the true “avoided costs”. He shows that any savings won’t come even close to making up for the higher cost of rooftop electricity. It’s no match for the grid’s … [Read more...]
Will Germany’s “EEG” energy law amendments make renewable targets harder to meet?
Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz/EEG), now 20 years old, is under discussion as a new amendment is supposed to come into force on January 1st 2021. Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool takes a detailed look at the highlights, including the new and higher targets, the financial role of municipalities, clean electricity subsidies, and solar and wind tender volumes. He explains there has been serious criticism of the … [Read more...]
Floating Solar on existing Hydro reservoirs: potential for 10,600 TWh/year
The idea is simple. Float solar panels on the reservoirs of hydroelectric dams. The new solar can piggy back on the existing grid connections. They complement each other by being strong when the other is weak: solar for the dry season, hydro for the wet. The hydro can provide pumped storage for the excess solar. Finally, the reservoir is readily available space. A team at the U.S.'s National Renewable Energy Laboratory have calculated the … [Read more...]
Perovskites: the next generation of solar cells and lighting?
Enthusiasm about the discoveries being made about perovskite materials is spreading, explains Sam Stranks at the University of Cambridge. Perovskite solar cells hit 25.2% efficiency in 2019, not far off crystalline silicon cells at 26.7%. Research is suggesting that figure could rise higher still. Perovskite can be “tuned” to absorb particular frequencies of light, allowing different layers of perovskites to absorb different and therefore more … [Read more...]
No more “offsetting”: Google commits to 24/7 locally sourced carbon-free electricity by 2030
By “offsetting” fossil electricity consumed at one data centre through buying green power from somewhere else, Google has been 100% renewable since 2017. But offsetting always has its flaws. In this case, 40% of Google’s actual power still comes from fossil fuels. Google’s new plan, to be 100% green 24/7 straight off the local grid, is designed to solve that. It will also send market signals to increase clean capacity locally, not just where you … [Read more...]
Grid scale Battery costs are declining faster than Wind and Solar
Gas as a transition fuel for grids may be around for a lot less time than we thought. We already know that large batteries, if they are cheap enough, can replace gas plants to provide peaking power to grids reliant on intermittent wind and solar. Bruce Robertson at IEEFA says the numbers are showing battery costs declining even more rapidly than wind and solar. Precisely because of that increased competitiveness Australia’s AGL Energy is starting … [Read more...]
Will Saudi Arabia build the world’s largest green hydrogen and ammonia plant?
The Gulf is already a major producer and consumer of hydrogen, mainly for fertilisers and specialty chemicals. Like most hydrogen produced globally, it is the ‘grey’ kind made from hydrocarbons. But the region’s low renewable power costs and abundance of land give it the key components for the industrial scale production of green hydrogen. So in July, the Saudi model city of Neom (Neom means “new future”) and ACWA Power signed a joint venture … [Read more...]
Who will be the Hydrogen superpower? The EU or China
Implicit in the EU’s plans, announced in July, to be the world’s Hydrogen leader is that this technology will have others competing for the top spot too. When EU nations ramped up their solar PV sector in the 2000s they couldn’t survive the arrival and rapid expansion of Chinese production. Will EU Hydrogen meet the same fate? Sören Amelang at CLEW speaks to a wide range of experts to try to answer this vital question from all the relevant … [Read more...]
The new era of electricity needs modern ways to charge customers
Today’s technologies – wind, solar, storage - have widely differing cost and operating characteristics to fossil fuels. So the way customers are made to cover those costs – assigning different rates to different customer classes – should change. Jim Lazar and Mark LeBel at RAP explain why and how, referencing their comprehensive manual “Electric Cost Allocation for a New Era”. They describe how the full range of technologies now establishing … [Read more...]
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