The Winter Outlook Report from ENTSO-E, Europe’s electricity transmission system operators, shows that overall generation will be sufficient to cover demand this winter, even under severe conditions. However, the report notes that many countries will need imports to meet their demand. Risks due to generation shortages are identified for some countries, such as Belgium, and to a lesser extent Great Britain. The report also looks at the possibility of gas disruptions.
The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook analyses system adequacy country-by-country. Under severe conditions, several countries will need imports to fulfil their peak load throughout the winter: Albania, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, FYRO Macedonia, Poland, Republic of Serbia and Sweden. However, cross-border capacity is expected to be sufficient to accommodate these import requirements.
Due to the reduced generation available, Belgium will have to rely on imports the whole winter through. Under severe conditions, TSOs covering Germany, France, Austria, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium, have agreed on a series of measures to prevent Belgian generation shortages from creating operational risks in Belgium or in neighbouring countries. France and Belgium TSOs have put in place measures including contracted emergency load reduction measures and strategic reserves in order to mitigate the risks, among which possible congestion across interconnections.
Conversely, the report has identified situations where excessive generation may occur. Excessive generation can happen when demand is low, during week-ends for example, and high renewables in-feed (from wind at night, and PV in daytime) is combined with non-flexible traditional generation. TSOs will monitor for any such events, and have planned for coordinated measures to reduce excess generation where necessary. The primary cause of this situation arising is due to insufficient cross-border export capability.
Working with ENTSOG, ENTSO-E has looked at the impact for each EU country of potential gas disruptions due to gas delivery issues between Russia and Ukraine. This is the first time ENTSO-E has undertaken such detailed assessments – even if the risk of such disruption has been reduced with the signature of an agreement between the parties to secure supplies.
A solar eclipse will take place on 20 March 2015. The report describes the Europe-wide potential impact of such an event and the establishment of a task force to coordinate actions among European TSOs to mitigate risk for the power system due to the solar eclipse.