Avoiding curtailment made sense when solar generation was extremely expensive: don’t build solar beyond what you can store. However, that means solar must always wait for storage costs to decline and capacity grow. But with solar prices plummeting it can make economic sense to overbuild it, say Richard Perez, University at Albany, and Karl Rabago, Pace University. Oversized solar will deliver more energy in low light and reduce the need for … [Read more...]
U.S. Coal: firms go bankrupt as share of generation halves over 10 years
In the U.S. coal’s market share for power generation has halved in 10 years to 24%, from close to 50% in 2008. That year a record 1,172m tons was produced. But a combination of the rapid drop in solar and wind costs, continued competition from cheap gas, and ageing coal plants (most were built between 1965 and 1985) means that steep decline is set to continue, say Seth Feaster and Karl Cates of IEEFA U.S.. It’s why Cloud Peak Energy, the … [Read more...]
Solar intermittency: upbeat “annual” carbon reduction estimates miss the “hourly” reality
There is a maximum speed at which solar capacity can expand. You know you’ve passed it when insufficient storage means solar curtailment, or selling the daytime excess means curtailment of other clean energy generators. As solar grows, so too will this problem. Vincent Xia, at the Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, reports on a new Stanford study which says emissions predictions are not taking this into account, thus … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
UK: Despite progress, 100% low-carbon is still a long way off
The UK transition is often cited as a success story. Coal’s contribution has dropped from 40% to 6%. Wind, solar and hydroelectric now generates more electricity than nuclear. Demand for electricity has also fallen. The carbon intensity of Britain’s electricity has almost halved, from over 500g of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour in 2006 to under 270g in 2018. The National Grid now expects to be able to operate a zero-carbon electricity system by 2025. But … [Read more...]
Barriers to intermittent renewables and battery storage come tumbling down
The astonishing growth of the renewable energy sector shows little sign of slowing, as costs continue to plummet, along with the cost of energy storage, to remove many of the barriers to using intermittent renewable generating sources in a range of applications. Much of this is down to the fact that the cost of battery energy storage is one third lower than this time last year. … [Read more...]
China plans UHV transmission lines that span continents
China’s Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) project aims to create a worldwide network of UHV transmission lines that can deliver electricity between continents. If successful, generating electricity in the most remote areas – think deserts and the Arctic – becomes viable, as does China’s ability to sell electricity directly to Europe. First, two main technological challenges have to be overcome: energy loss along transmission lines spanning … [Read more...]
Renewable hydrogen “already cost competitive”, says new research
Jocelyn Timperley at Carbon Brief has interviewed the lead author, and the critics, of this new report titled “Economics of converting renewable power to hydrogen”. The research says renewable hydrogen is already proving competitive for niche, high-intensity users in Germany and Texas. Future technological improvements, combined with expected changes to subsidies and CCS requirements, can make it so for large-scale industrial users in the next 10 … [Read more...]
Investing in gas: the effect of carbon taxes, gas prices, and the growth of renewables
Schalk Cloete presents his latest article looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a specific power sector. After reviewing onshore wind, nuclear and solar, he now looks at gas. His analysis of coal is to come. The major variables are increasing CO2 prices, and natural gas pricing. He adds that the growth of wind and solar should benefit load-following gas power plants: they are plugging the intermittency gap when electricity … [Read more...]
Wind build-out: convergence of process and permitting rules needed to promote certainty for investors
Two weeks ago, Energy Post reported on permitting and legal barriers to the development of onshore wind capacity in Germany. In this follow-up analysis, Mike Scott identifies similar obstacles in key regions as well as some clear success stories. To complete the picture, he spoke with WindEurope and Vattenvall to get their views on the way forward for the industry and investors across the EU. … [Read more...]
Energy as a service: light, heat, mobility, information
Large scale electricity generators, unconcerned with end-use, want to sell you more electricity, argues Walt Patterson of the Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy, based at Chatham House. But the arrival of small-scale, localised and micro-grid suppliers could see the electricity generation business turned on its head. It opens the door to the selling of the service – light, heat, refrigeration, motive power, information – rather than … [Read more...]
Will Toyota’s new battery design solve the looming shortage of vital metals for renewables?
We all know the important part played by lithium in battery manufacture. But there is a longer list of metals - including copper, cobalt and neodymium – that must ramp up supply for the continued rapid growth of EVs, solar, wind and other renewables technologies. EVs alone will increase the consumption of copper nine-fold by 2027. Cobalt prices already doubled in 2017. Neodymium use will rise by 700% in the next few decades to satisfy our need … [Read more...]
IEA: Battery storage races to keep up with solar and wind’s demand-matching challenges
Yesterday’s article from the IEA posed the question: will solar’s inherent intermittency slow its rise as a major power supply. For variable renewables like solar and wind to grow to over 50% of global capacity additions by 2040, storage technology must keep up with this pace. For this to happen, “flexibility” – the ability of the power system to quickly adapt to changes in power supply and demand – needs to grow by some 80% in the next decade … [Read more...]
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese government’s plan to meet the Paris goals
China is leading the energy transition as the world’s largest producer, exporter and installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles. It has a clear lead too in renewable energy patents, ahead of the U.S. and twice that of the EU. But it is also still heavily dependent on coal, the air pollution in its cities is legendary, and the economy is expected to quadruple by 2050. Against this background, Kaare Sandholt, Chief … [Read more...]
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