The anxiety expressed by young people today about Climate Change is reasonable, but they offer no thought-out solution. We should examine the available scientific options in a form accessible to those without specialised knowledge and starting from what natural science has to say about energy and where to find it. (In this article precision is set aside to allow the science underlying the orders of magnitude to be clear and simple.) … [Read more...]
Solar intermittency: upbeat “annual” carbon reduction estimates miss the “hourly” reality
There is a maximum speed at which solar capacity can expand. You know you’ve passed it when insufficient storage means solar curtailment, or selling the daytime excess means curtailment of other clean energy generators. As solar grows, so too will this problem. Vincent Xia, at the Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, reports on a new Stanford study which says emissions predictions are not taking this into account, thus … [Read more...]
Barriers to intermittent renewables and battery storage come tumbling down
The astonishing growth of the renewable energy sector shows little sign of slowing, as costs continue to plummet, along with the cost of energy storage, to remove many of the barriers to using intermittent renewable generating sources in a range of applications. Much of this is down to the fact that the cost of battery energy storage is one third lower than this time last year. … [Read more...]
Why does coal survive? A detailed real-world cashflow analysis
Everyone knows coal plants are bad for the environment. So why do countries still use them? Coal’s attractiveness comes from the relatively low up front capital investment required to start generating energy. On top of that, the rapid rise of variable renewables (solar, wind) need something to rise with it to fill the generation gap when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. In his final instalment - after his similarly detailed … [Read more...]
IEA: Battery storage races to keep up with solar and wind’s demand-matching challenges
Yesterday’s article from the IEA posed the question: will solar’s inherent intermittency slow its rise as a major power supply. For variable renewables like solar and wind to grow to over 50% of global capacity additions by 2040, storage technology must keep up with this pace. For this to happen, “flexibility” – the ability of the power system to quickly adapt to changes in power supply and demand – needs to grow by some 80% in the next decade … [Read more...]
IEA: solar’s exponential growth could make it less competitive, not more
Solar’s current growth trajectory means a doubling of annual deployment every three years. But despite further expected reductions in some cost areas (e.g. cheaper tech and economies of scale), the IEA’s new VALCOE (value-adjusted levelised costs of electricity) metric calculates that solar’s relative competitiveness per unit added will actually decline as its inherent demand-matching issues scale up with the growth. Brent Wanner, WEO Energy … [Read more...]
How much subsidy does solar need, and for how long?
Schalk Cloete presents his latest paper looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a power sector. After reviewing onshore wind and nuclear, he now looks at solar. His analysis of coal and gas are to come. Intermittency, market share, maintenance, integration costs and other factors are modelled in detail to help predict solar’s future. *This article is brought to you via our new author platform. If you have an article you … [Read more...]
The risks related to onshore wind power investment
Bans on subsidies (in some countries) and reduced costs have hit total investment in onshore wind. Meanwhile, market share continues to grow across the EU28. Wind energy now accounts for almost 20% of installed capacity for power generation which makes researcher Schalk Cloete's sobering analysis of risks for onshore wind well worth reading. Following up on his previous article, he examines current assumptions and argues that the discount rate … [Read more...]
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