The IEA is forecasting that renewables will cover only half the projected increase in global electricity demand in 2021 and 2022. Despite renewables’ impressive growth, coal and gas will be needed to cover the rest. That means emissions will rise to record levels. That will be the reverse of the IEA’s (and many others’) “Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050” pathway, where three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 come from the … [Read more...]
China’s energy system: record renewables expansion, but coal still dominates
Lara Dombrowski and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool give the latest headline figures for China’s energy system. In 2020 electricity generation in China went up by 298 TWh – an increase equal to 60% of Germany’s total. That year, renewables capacity increased more than ever before. That made China responsible for nearly 50% of global renewable capacity additions. But China has higher CO2 emissions than all the OECD countries combined. And continued … [Read more...]
The EU’s “Fit for 55” package: a primer on the EU ETS and other main policy levers
On July 14 the European Commission will present the much awaited “Fit for 55” legislative package. Lara Dombrowski and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool have written a very useful primer on what’s at stake for the EU ETS, along with a summary of the other main policy levers that will be decided upon. The authors describe the EU ETS as the central instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It caps emissions for 10,000 power sector, industrial … [Read more...]
18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree
A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors – these account … [Read more...]
Do government renewable energy auctions squeeze the PPA market?
Spanish government renewable energy auctions in January produced record-breaking low strike prices for both wind and solar. For solar the average price was €24.47/MWh (the lowest was €14.98/MWh), guaranteed for 12 years through contracts-for-difference (CfDs). As such auctions continue around Europe, Michael ClauĂźner at Energy Brainpool asks what impact these prices will have on future power prices in general and on solar power purchase agreement … [Read more...]
Can the U.S. switch on a Nuclear Fusion plant by 2035?
Momentum is building in the U.S. for the switching on of a nuclear fusion pilot plant by 2035. A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine lays out for the first time the required technical, economic, and regulatory standards. It comes soon after the prospects for fusion were boosted in January by a government bill that funds fusion activities. Peter Dunn at MIT reviews the report and speaks to the experts. The main … [Read more...]
“The Role of Gas” in Europe and China: EVENT VIDEO on security of supply, gas to power, competitive markets & renewable gases
We present the videos of the second of our three, 4-session workshops on the opportunities for European energy solutions providers to take part in China's energy transition. In this workshop, held in February, we looked at gas. Demand in China is expected to keep growing. That’s because China doesn’t just need to replace coal, it simply needs more energy. Europe’s gas sector has decades of relevant experience, technology, policy, planning and … [Read more...]
We’re making much more progress decarbonising Electricity than Transport. Why?
In the OECD, since 2000, electricity sector emissions have fallen by 8% while transport emissions have actually increased by 5%. The best performers like the UK recorded drops in both: 40% and 6% respectively. In the U.S. it’s 25% and 0%. Catherine Wolfram at the Haas School of Business asks why transport is still going in the wrong direction, given the power sector’s progress. She posits three theories. Rich nations are outsourcing … [Read more...]
Accelerating renewables in Central and South East Europe
What is the potential for renewables in Central and South East Europe? Luis Janeiro, Seán Collins and Ricardo Gorini at IRENA summarise their clean energy pathway for CESEC (the Central and South Eastern Europe energy connectivity initiative). The region has very good resource conditions to scale up renewables. Spectacular cost reductions in wind and solar over the last few years can provide a cheaper source of new electricity than the least-cost … [Read more...]
WEO 2020 means updated price predictions to 2040: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewables, Power
The combined effect of the global lockdown, more ambitious climate policies and the rise of renewables will have a significant effect on European power prices up to 2040, as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies. Carlos Perez-Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool uses their Power2Sim model to look at the data in the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook 2020 and make quantitative forecasts. The pandemic has caused structural distortions to the … [Read more...]
ELCC: how to measure grid stability as renewables are added
We cannot just swap 24/7 fossil fuel power plants for intermittent renewables. To prevent electricity shortfalls the capacity of a solar or wind plant must exceed that of the fossil fuel plant it replaces. But by how much? That’s the question that the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) metric is designed to answer. It’s not a new concept, but is now becoming very important. Mark Specht at the Union of Concerned Scientists explains the … [Read more...]
No more “offsetting”: Google commits to 24/7 locally sourced carbon-free electricity by 2030
By “offsetting” fossil electricity consumed at one data centre through buying green power from somewhere else, Google has been 100% renewable since 2017. But offsetting always has its flaws. In this case, 40% of Google’s actual power still comes from fossil fuels. Google’s new plan, to be 100% green 24/7 straight off the local grid, is designed to solve that. It will also send market signals to increase clean capacity locally, not just where you … [Read more...]
Green Ammonia Market: a New Era for Energy and Power Industry
Green ammonia uses renewable energy instead of natural gas or coal for producing hydrogen; hence, is an effective way to reduce greenhouse emissions. The electrochemical Haber-Bosch process produces ammonia without any greenhouse emissions. Green ammonia refers to ammonia, which has been produced through a process that is 100% renewable and carbon-free. Reducing the carbon dioxide emissions during the production process is essential to achieve … [Read more...]
Negative electricity prices: lockdown’s demand slump exposes inflexibility of German power
The lockdown has unexpectedly allowed us to model certain aspects of the energy sector’s possible future. One is the oversupply of variable renewables into the grid. In Germany, a slump in demand plus an exceptionally sunny and windy few months sent wholesale electricity prices negative and to record lows. Fossil generators calculated that paying buyers to take electricity was cheaper than performing a shut-down re-start sequence, so they did … [Read more...]
Investing for tomorrow, because Energy subsidies will decline 25% by 2050 – analysis
IRENA has modelled energy subsidies to 2030 and 2050 for their pathway to meet the Paris targets. Here, Michael Taylor summarises their findings. Firstly, they estimate today’s global direct energy sector subsidies to be $634bn/year (2017 figures). The vast majority, $447bn, went to fossil fuels. (By the way, he points out that none of these figures include the externality costs - pollution, healthcare, environment - which equate to trillions and … [Read more...]
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