BP’s latest Outlook predicts – for the first time - that oil saw its peak in 2019. In each of BP’s Outlooks, published annually since 2011, they have revised their predictions for the global energy landscape to 2050 as new data comes in. The growth of clean energy and the changing shape of climate policies have seen each successive forecast increase the share of renewables at the expense of fossil fuels. This year even gas has seen its prospects … [Read more...]
“Vertical well” Pumped-Storage Hydro: small, cheaper, 1-to-100MW range
In the U.S., pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) already provides 95% of all utility-scale energy storage. So any innovations that cut costs or extend PSH usability should be well received. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners Obermeyer Hydro, Microtunneling Inc. and Small Hydro Consulting are demonstrating the advantages of a small pump installed in a vertical “well” rather than an underground powerhouse, one of the most … [Read more...]
Floating Solar: can it help ASEAN reverse coal’s continued rise?
Floating solar farms may be gaining traction in Asia. Capacity is still small: by 2019 the big players Japan and China had a combined floating photovoltaic (FPV) installed capacity of 1.3GW. But the ASEAN countries that had virtually nothing before 2019 now have over 51MW and have planned in another 858MW. A report by Sara Jane Ahmed and Elrika Hamdi at IEEFA explains why FPV is looking better and cheaper at balancing out peaks and troughs than … [Read more...]
BP’s world energy review: 2019 saw clean electricity match coal
Simon Evans at Carbon Brief summarises BP’s 69th edition of its influential annual statistical review of world energy, looking at 2019. Overall, total energy demand rose, though slower than usual. Renewables were the largest source of new energy, but were closely followed by oil and gas. Coal use dropped again, the fourth drop in six years, thanks to historic declines in the EU and the US. But continued growth in SE Asia, China and India leaves … [Read more...]
IEA projections 2020: energy demand plunges but Renewables still grow at Gas, Coal’s expense
The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
China’s 2019 electricity generation reviewed as its next 5-year plan is drafted
Simon Göss breaks down the totals and additions for electricity generation in China. In 2019 the total reached 7,325 TWh (more than twice Europe’s) after adding 330 TWh (more than half Germany’s total). Of that 330 TWh, 120 TWh came from thermal (90%+ coal). But the numbers were dominated by renewables (hydro, wind, solar) which added almost 160 TWh. Though that’s the third year of declining renewables additions, wind and solar curtailment is … [Read more...]
Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage: grid-scale, cheap materials, known tech, compact, install anywhere
We need to store the huge quantities of excess electricity generated by variable renewables. But what’s the best way? Currently, over 99% of large-scale electricity storage uses pumped hydro dams. But geography severely limits where you can build one. And the growth of grid-scale batteries is limited by raw material costs and short lifecycles. Antoine Koen and Pau Farres Antunez at Cambridge University review an important alternative, Pumped … [Read more...]
Pumped Storage Hydropower 2.0: steel dams, underground, or 1-10MW modular
Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) is one of the most cost-effective utility-scale options for grid energy storage. The U.S. has plants across the country, totalling over 20GW of capacity. Now the Dept of Energy (DoE) is backing four teams developing blue sky (water?!) ideas that should make the next generation of PSH even cheaper. In this article the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) tracks their progress so far. They include dams made of … [Read more...]
2019-2024: competitive auctions will launch over 2/3rds of utility-scale renewables, says IEA
Government support for new utility-scale capacity is being replaced with competitive auctions, the surest sign that the commercial appetite for renewables - particularly solar PV and onshore wind - is growing strong. This article by the IEA pulls out the essential numbers from their annual Renewables 2019 report (their 5-year market analysis and forecast for renewable energy and technologies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors). The … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
Can Vanadium Flow Batteries beat Li-ion for utility-scale storage?
It’s taken 40 years for lithium-ion battery technology to evolve into its current state, powering everything from the smallest electronic devices to Tesla’s 100MW battery farm in southern Australia. But utility-scale Li-ion batteries are rare. 99% of grid storage today is pumped hydro, a solution that will always be limited by geographical and environmental constraints. For utility-scale chemical batteries to take off they need a new technology, … [Read more...]
Cheaper than coal: IRENA’s comprehensive report on cost declines, all renewables categories
The International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) latest report Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018 details the global weighted-average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for all commercially available renewable technologies. It states that renewables are already the lowest-cost source of new power generation in many parts of the world today. By as soon as 2020, onshore wind and solar PV will join hydropower in consistently offering a … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. It’s what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
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