At the beginning of June China released its 14th five-year plan (FYP) for renewable energy for the five years 2021-2025. Hu Min at Innovative Green Development Program, writing for Carbon Brief, reviews the planâs targets and actions, and its implications. Unchanged from the 13th FYP, 25% of Chinaâs energy will come from non-fossil sources by 2030. But the 14th FYP says at least half of the increase in electricity demand will be covered by … [Read more...]
The Nordic Code: offsetting should be used to exceed, not meet, net-zero targets
Kenneth Möllersten and Lars Zetterberg at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and Hanna-Mari Ahonen at Perspectives Climate Research explain the main issues around the draft âNordic Code of Best Practice for Voluntary Compensation of GHGâ, published for consultation in June, which synthesises the most ambitious best practices for the voluntary use of carbon credits, including for offsetting. Focussing on non-state actors, the Nordic Code … [Read more...]
Interpreting the Paris Agreement: the 1.5C and 2C targets are not two different options
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti at Humboldt University of Berlin, writing for Carbon Brief, want to clear up confusion over the 1.5C and 2C pathways. Their concern is that some people are interpreting the Paris Agreementâs wording as two separate targets, one simply better than the other. But they should not be seen as two different options. The objective of âwell below 2Câ must be seen by modellers and policy-makers as a clear … [Read more...]
Net-zero targets delayed by fossil fuel investors suing governments
As nations try to phase out fossil fuels, companies are suing them for compensation. Rachel Thrasher at Boston University, Blake Simmons at Colorado State University and Kyla Tienhaara at Queen's University (Ontario) summarise their latest study of the scale of the payouts. The cases are based on treaties â the Energy Charter Treaty being the most significant - that allow investors to sue governments when policy changes overturn their … [Read more...]
Germanyâs electrification ambitions: TSOs scenario for 91% Renewables by 2045
The German TSOs submitted in January scenarios for their grid to 2037, making projections for increasing electrification. In addition, and for the first time, they included an ambitious and long term scenario to 2045. By pure chance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Germanyâs response â to consider a reduction in its serious dependence on Russian energy imports â should make eyes turn sharply towards that 2045 scenario. Simon Göss at cr.hub, … [Read more...]
Lifting 3.6bn people out of poverty would raise global emissions by 18%
One criticism of the energy transition is that efforts made by the rich world will be negated by the rise in wealth and consumption in the developing world. A new study puts figures on that expected increase in emissions. Eradicating all âextreme povertyâ â by raising hundreds of millions above the US$1.90 per day threshold â would drive up global carbon emissions by less than 1%. Lifting 3.6 billion people over the poverty line of US$5.50 per … [Read more...]
Whatâs your average lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth, to achieve net-zero by 2050?
To reach net zero by 2050, babies born today must have CO2 footprints ten times smaller over their lifetimes than their parents and grandparents. In rich countries itâll be fifteen times, while in emerging economies like India and China itâll be around four times smaller. Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen and Hyeji Kim at the IEA summarise how they have calculated the average allowable lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth. Taking the two extremes, the … [Read more...]
EU Taxonomy: labelling Gas âgreenâ is a gift to Putin
Many of todayâs clean energy technologies were given their first boost in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, explains William Todts at T&E. He now hopes the current confrontation between NATO and Russia over Ukraine will shake up and deepen Europeâs commitment to the energy transition. But entirely the wrong signal was sent over the New Year, says Todts. He describes the European Commissionâs inclusion of gas in the EU Taxonomy for sustainable … [Read more...]
Net-Zero world: calculating the cost of stranded assets, including wrong-skilled âhuman capitalâ
Most calculations of the costs of stranded assets abandoned and replaced by the net-zero economy have been missing the biggest element: human capital. Itâs not sufficient just to total up the assets and supporting infrastructure for coal, gas, old-style buildings, machines, vehicles, etc., says Dan Chester at Lancaster University and co-author of the paper âStranded Human and Produced Capital in a Net-Zero Transitionâ. Worker output is not only … [Read more...]
The U.S. now needs a Carbon Tax to transition from Gas to Renewables
Gas emissions must be halved (and coal eliminated) by 2030 to meet President Bidenâs goal of a carbon free power sector by 2035. The problem is that gas additions are half the price of new wind and solar installations. Though the clean energy champions are still getting cheaper, so are gas additions. Nikos Tsafos at the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the policy options over the next decade for the U.S. The stark fact is … [Read more...]
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