Currently, we measure non-CO2 emissions by converting their impact into the CO2 equivalent over a 100-year period. The problem is that other pollutants can have their worst impact well within 100 years, like methane (the first 20 years is when the impact of methane is worst). Though CO2 has caused the most warming, other short-lived pollutants have contributed nearly half of the total, particularly methane, black carbon from soot, and some … [Read more...]
Fulfilling U.S. wind and solar ambitions will use under 1% of its land (that’s less than the fossil fuel footprint)
Meeting the U.S.’s wind and solar ambitions in full would take up less than 1% of its land, less than the fossil fuel industry’s current footprint. Steve Clemmer at UCS goes into the details of NREL’s comprehensive study of land use for wind and solar. Of particular interest is the observation that setting a high bar for “responsible siting” of wind and solar projects - avoiding the use of sensitive, protected, urban areas, difficult terrain or … [Read more...]
Critical Minerals: will there be enough to meet the 2050 net-zero emissions target?
If the production and processing of critical minerals cannot keep up with the accelerating adoption of batteries, EVs, wind turbines and solar PV technologies, the pace and success of the global energy system transformation will be put at risk. In this explainer, Lilly Yejin Lee and James Glynn at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University address the big questions, drawing on the data underlying the IEA’s “The Role of Critical … [Read more...]
New AI model predicts 1.5C temperature rise is likely in 2030s even if emissions decline
A new artificial intelligence model is predicting that 2C warming is likely to occur and sooner than expected, even if current low-emissions strategies are successful, explains Josie Garthwaite at Stanford University. The Stanford-developed AI uses “neural network” learning from vast quantities of past data, predicting that the 1.5C threshold is likely to be crossed in the next 10 to 15 years. That’s regardless of how much greenhouse gas … [Read more...]
Germany is developing a strategy for Carbon Capture and Storage to meet its 2045 net zero target
Germany cannot become carbon neutral by 2045 without carbon capture, explains Simon Göss at carboneer. It’s why the German government is developing a Carbon Management Strategy for CO2 storage and utilisation. Projections reveal that around 30m tons of CO2 will have to be captured, transported, reused or disposed of by 2045. The focus will be on industrial processes and waste. Göss lays out the background to Germany’s strategy, including possible … [Read more...]
Green Hydrogen’s 6,000-fold scale-up by 2050 must far exceed Wind and Solar’s. Is it possible?
To scale “green” hydrogen to make its contribution to limiting warming to 1.5C, electrolyser capacity needs to grow 6,000-fold by 2050 from today’s levels of 600MW, according to the IEA’s Net-Zero emissions by 2050 scenario. Adrian Odenweller and Falko Ueckerdt at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, writing for Carbon Brief, summarise their study that concludes even if electrolyser capacity grows as quickly as wind and solar, it is … [Read more...]
Russia, fossil prices, energy security will boost Renewables to 38% of global power mix by 2027, says IEA
The IEA has raised its 2027 forecasts for total renewables additions in its main scenario to 2,383GW – around the total power capacity of China. That’s a 28% increase on the previous estimate and up 76% from two years ago, explains Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief who summarises the IEA’s latest forecasts. Globally, solar power will overtake gas by installed capacity in 2026 and coal in 2027. There are two main drivers for this acceleration. High … [Read more...]
Corporate greenwashing: will court cases and new rules close the gap between promises and reality?
Activists are taking firms to court over deceiving consumers with questionable climate pledges. Isabel Sutton at Clean Energy Wire summarises the issues. Greenwashing, and therefore misdirecting consumer behaviour, is clearly a barrier to achieving climate goals. The latest IPCC report says consumer behaviour and changes to our lifestyles can result in a 40%–70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. But unregulated advertising can say … [Read more...]
Copenhagen will miss its 2025 net-zero target: a case study of how pledges fail
Copenhagen is going to miss its 2025 net-zero target. The reason can be taken as a template for why we may soon see other failing pledges from governments and corporates. Kirstine Lund Christiansen at the University of Copenhagen and Inge-Merete Hougaard at Lund University explain that Copenhagen’s emissions overspill stems from an unrealistic dependence on technology when the promise was first made in 2012. As the target date got closer, other … [Read more...]
Veracity of corporate net-zero pledges and advertising is being challenged in court
Clean Energy Wire (CLEW) is putting the spotlight on corporate climate pledges, the advertising they use to win customers, and their claims of reducing their emissions. Here, Isabel Sutton at CLEW summarises the major landmark legal cases in multiple countries being brought against corporates by activists and other claimants. Companies under scrutiny include TotalEnergies, KLM, Drax, Shell, BP, Beiersdorf (personal care products), and more. … [Read more...]
Can China’s 14th 5-year-plan for Renewable Energy deliver an early emissions peak before 2030?
At the beginning of June China released its 14th five-year plan (FYP) for renewable energy for the five years 2021-2025. Hu Min at Innovative Green Development Program, writing for Carbon Brief, reviews the plan’s targets and actions, and its implications. Unchanged from the 13th FYP, 25% of China’s energy will come from non-fossil sources by 2030. But the 14th FYP says at least half of the increase in electricity demand will be covered by … [Read more...]
The Nordic Code: offsetting should be used to exceed, not meet, net-zero targets
Kenneth Möllersten and Lars Zetterberg at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and Hanna-Mari Ahonen at Perspectives Climate Research explain the main issues around the draft “Nordic Code of Best Practice for Voluntary Compensation of GHG”, published for consultation in June, which synthesises the most ambitious best practices for the voluntary use of carbon credits, including for offsetting. Focussing on non-state actors, the Nordic Code … [Read more...]
Interpreting the Paris Agreement: the 1.5C and 2C targets are not two different options
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti at Humboldt University of Berlin, writing for Carbon Brief, want to clear up confusion over the 1.5C and 2C pathways. Their concern is that some people are interpreting the Paris Agreement’s wording as two separate targets, one simply better than the other. But they should not be seen as two different options. The objective of “well below 2C” must be seen by modellers and policy-makers as a clear … [Read more...]
Net-zero targets delayed by fossil fuel investors suing governments
As nations try to phase out fossil fuels, companies are suing them for compensation. Rachel Thrasher at Boston University, Blake Simmons at Colorado State University and Kyla Tienhaara at Queen's University (Ontario) summarise their latest study of the scale of the payouts. The cases are based on treaties – the Energy Charter Treaty being the most significant - that allow investors to sue governments when policy changes overturn their … [Read more...]
Germany’s electrification ambitions: TSOs scenario for 91% Renewables by 2045
The German TSOs submitted in January scenarios for their grid to 2037, making projections for increasing electrification. In addition, and for the first time, they included an ambitious and long term scenario to 2045. By pure chance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s response – to consider a reduction in its serious dependence on Russian energy imports – should make eyes turn sharply towards that 2045 scenario. Simon Göss at cr.hub, … [Read more...]
