Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
Can Vanadium Flow Batteries beat Li-ion for utility-scale storage?
It’s taken 40 years for lithium-ion battery technology to evolve into its current state, powering everything from the smallest electronic devices to Tesla’s 100MW battery farm in southern Australia. But utility-scale Li-ion batteries are rare. 99% of grid storage today is pumped hydro, a solution that will always be limited by geographical and environmental constraints. For utility-scale chemical batteries to take off they need a new technology, … [Read more...]
Why coordinated Dutch-German climate action is critical for Europe
Both the Netherlands and Germany are about to propose major new national climate measures. If the proposals become law, they will enforce some of the most stringent national targets for GHG reductions in the world. It’s why, on 22 August, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will host a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her ‘climate cabinet’. Coordinated Dutch-German climate action can make these neighbouring countries role models for … [Read more...]
Utility-scale batteries can undercut peaking gas and coal
A report by IEEFA looks at trends in the U.S. to install utility scale batteries. The report’s author, Dennis Wamsted, gives examples of how it is replacing the peaking and seasonal generation being provided by gas and coal. Emissions aside, the numbers are starting to add up. In Hawaii the combination of solar generation and storage is expected to undercut the price for fossil fuel generation. In Texas, Vistra Energy’s batteries are soaking up … [Read more...]
Overbuild solar: it’s getting so cheap curtailment won’t matter
Avoiding curtailment made sense when solar generation was extremely expensive: don’t build solar beyond what you can store. However, that means solar must always wait for storage costs to decline and capacity grow. But with solar prices plummeting it can make economic sense to overbuild it, say Richard Perez, University at Albany, and Karl Rabago, Pace University. Oversized solar will deliver more energy in low light and reduce the need for … [Read more...]
The European Battery Alliance is moving up a gear
Europe needs batteries, primarily for clean mobility and grid stabilisation. But EU lithium-ion cell manufacturing is less than 3% of the global share, and mainly for high-end niche markets, not the automotive sector. If Europe doesn’t act fast, catching up with Asia will become impossible, writes Carole Mathieu of the IFRI’s Centre for Energy, reflecting the views of the European Battery Alliance (EBA). It’s a strategic imperative, given the … [Read more...]
Electric Cars: only big subsidies lift market share off the 1.5% floor
You only need to compare the US to Norway to see how the main driver for EV sales is coming from government subsidies. Total Norwegian EV incentives cut the cost of running a typical 60 kWh battery pack from over $200/kWh to negative $336/kWh. US incentives bring it down to negative $23/kWh. The consequences are clear: generous Norway sees EVs take 31% of the market share in cars. In the US it’s 1.4%. That makes EVs a luxury item in the US (like … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
From rooftop solar to carbon divestment, California leads the transition
California doesn’t wait for Washington. As America’s most populous state by far, it is behaving like a separate nation when it comes to climate policies. Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies at IEEFA Australasia, says it has become a global leader in renewable energy. Renewables provided 34% of its total energy needs in 2018, and the business community sees economic success in further progress. The author runs through the highlights, … [Read more...]
New “Gas for Climate” scenarios: can green gas and hydrogen save gas pipelines?
Gas has a key role to play in decarbonising the energy sector. Until a comprehensive clean energy network can accommodate variable renewables using storage, baseload power will be needed. Natural gas is a lower carbon option than coal, so there is a strong case for it to be the first-choice bridging fuel towards a net-zero energy economy. However, exactly how much gas, what type of gas and how existing infrastructure can store energy in the form … [Read more...]
Onsite solar and storage powers off-grid telecom towers
There are more than 3m telecom towers globally, and powering them is a $100bn market. It's a particularly important growth sector in developing countries. They are already using mobiles to leapfrog the laying of costly landlines, but because they lack grids that stretch to remote communities they need to power towers that are off the grid. Dr Thomas Hillig says as solar and storage costs continue to drop they are replacing diesel gensets as the … [Read more...]
Clean air transport: batteries or biojet or both – but let’s get on with it
In his last article for Energy Post, Mike Scott looked at how airlines are under increasing pressure to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions rather than offsetting them as they do now. How can it be done? There is no one-size-fits-all solution for the varied size of aircraft and flight distances but that should be no excuse. Battery innovation offers solutions for some cases whilst biojet (aviation biofuel) can fill many of the remaining gaps. … [Read more...]
Utilities are starting to invest in big batteries instead of building new power plants
There has been a dramatic drop in battery costs in recent years. Jeremiah Johnson and Joseph F. DeCarolis, of North Carolina State University, say if this continues grid-scale batteries could supplant the usual solutions to peak electricity demand: gas power plants and transmission lines. Inevitably, this will depend on the future price of gas, and the changing policy environment. But one thing is for sure: utilities don’t want to invest in peak … [Read more...]
IEA: Battery storage races to keep up with solar and wind’s demand-matching challenges
Yesterday’s article from the IEA posed the question: will solar’s inherent intermittency slow its rise as a major power supply. For variable renewables like solar and wind to grow to over 50% of global capacity additions by 2040, storage technology must keep up with this pace. For this to happen, “flexibility” – the ability of the power system to quickly adapt to changes in power supply and demand – needs to grow by some 80% in the next decade … [Read more...]
Electric buses: China leads through policy ambition but Europe could overtake
News comes of another renewables record for China. Shenzhen based manufacturer BYD has launched the world’s largest pure electric double decker bus fleet, to be delivered to the city of Xi’an. To illustrate China’s drive to dominate this market, they have already won the international tender to deliver 37 of a total of 68 new electric double decker buses to London, where the red double decker is an icon. That’s more than the remaining 31 that … [Read more...]
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