By Andrew Mills and Joachim Seel, Berkeley Lab As solar generation increases, it is expected to progressively impact the bulk power system—changing prices for energy and other grid services. Solar generation is driven by sunshine and thus often highly correlated over the course of a day within a region. Without the deployment of storage or an increase in price-responsive load, growth in solar capacity is … [Read more...]
A marketplace for energy data will enable Europe’s grid expansion
The growth of the decentralisation of energy generation and storage combined with the digitalisation of the metrics of supply and demand is pointing towards a marketplace for energy data, explain Veronika Spurná and Helena Uhde at the EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform. Such a marketplace will monetise the data itself, in recognition of its vital role in enabling the intelligent distribution of energy and investment. There will also be a place … [Read more...]
Oil’s decline will weaken its political influence
2020 was another bad year for the oil and gas industry. The pandemic made it worse but it was not the cause: a decline has been going on for a long time. Energy firms in the S&P 500 (overwhelmingly oil and gas) make up 2.3% of the total value, down from 16% just over a decade ago, and 30% forty years ago. Clark Williams-Derry and Tom Sanzillo at IEEFA explain why, how and what the likely consequences are for oil firms. For many years it’s … [Read more...]
Germany’s Renewable Energy Act 2021: how to implement the fine policy detail of emissions reduction targets
After much haggling and debate, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG) 2021 was finally approved in December and came into force on 1 January 2021. Sila Akat and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool outline the most important changes imposed by the amendment. It gives an insight into how a nation is dealing with the finer details of increasingly ambitious emissions reduction targets. The authors cover the main issues and outcomes. How Germany is dealing … [Read more...]
Asia’s record Gas prices expose the need for faster market reform
After record lows in mid-2020, Asian spot prices for LNG rose tenfold to reach record highs in January 2021. This volatility is an obstacle to the development of the gas infrastructure that’s essential to the region where demand for gas is growing, explain Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil and Gergely Molnar at the IEA. There were multiple causes for the price spike, including the cold winter, limits to nuclear and coal generation, and outages at regional … [Read more...]
How to create four major regional Gas hubs in Russia
Kamil Sobczak at the Russian Gas Society has co-authored a report, “Opportunities and prospects for the development of gas hubs in Russia”, which he summarises here. It scopes out what is needed to create four major gas hubs in the Far East, North West, Central and Southern Russia. The plan will help develop and modernise Russia’s gas sector as well as increase exports. Transparency in prices and transaction volumes will be essential to create … [Read more...]
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan will reshape its growing Gas sector
Demand for natural gas in China is set to continue its rise, increasing by 7% to 9% annually to reach up to 500 bcm by 2025, explains Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe at the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. Domestic gas production has continued its significant growth too, driven by a surge in shale gas. Even then, gas imports – both pipeline and LNG - should increase to fulfil the rising supply/demand gap. This growing importance of gas in the energy … [Read more...]
Optimising Wind and Solar needs new ways of weather forecasting
Weather forecasters are used to – and very good at – predicting large-scale weather patterns and then inferring what the actual surface weather conditions will be, based on a database of past events. Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Reading explains how the creation of a database of site-specific wind and solar generation, as well as grid demand, can be used it the same way to more accurately predict the impact of the weather on these … [Read more...]
WEO 2020 means updated price predictions to 2040: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewables, Power
The combined effect of the global lockdown, more ambitious climate policies and the rise of renewables will have a significant effect on European power prices up to 2040, as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies. Carlos Perez-Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool uses their Power2Sim model to look at the data in the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook 2020 and make quantitative forecasts. The pandemic has caused structural distortions to the … [Read more...]
Europe could have subsidy-free Offshore Wind by 2023
A study has analysed offshore wind projects in 5 countries – the UK, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium – to show that wind farms due to be built after 2020 are converging towards a range of €50-70/MWh. It wasn’t long ago that such low prices were only predicted for 2050, say Iegor Riepin, Felix Müsgens (Brandenburg University of Technology), Malte Jansen and Iain Staffell (Imperial College London), writing for Carbon Brief. To make … [Read more...]
California learns even flexible Emissions Markets won’t guarantee price stability
In May, emissions allowance prices hit rock bottom in California. How can cap-and-trade work properly when prices are so volatile and difficult to predict? It makes life very difficult for businesses and investors, not to mention the state. Changes to the rules are being proposed to introduce more flexibility into the effective price floors, ceilings and the availability of allowances. But Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas … [Read more...]
Ukraine’s integration into the EU gas market is a positive lesson for the region
Ukraine is shaping its gas infrastructure and regulations to integrate into the EU market. On the infrastructure front, its interconnectors with neighbours, extensive pipeline network and storage facilities are making it an increasingly important European player, explains Aura Sabadus writing for the Atlantic Council. The gradual opening up to EU free market rules are evidenced by its gas prices following those of the EU. Ukraine's attractive … [Read more...]
EU ETS: The Market Stability Reserve should focus on carbon prices, not allowance volumes
The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) aims at providing carbon price stability for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). But serious questions are being asked about how much stability – if any – it provides, say Michael Pahle at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Simon Quemin at the LSE's Grantham Research Institute. They argue that the MSR rules are too complex, have difficulty accommodating changing EU and national policies, … [Read more...]
A Just Transition can address systemic inequality, not just clean energy jobs
For some, the concept of a Just Transition means more than re-skilling former coal workers. It’s an opportunity to reduce systemic inequality in their society. Energy costs represent a high portion of the spending of the poor, so any major overhaul of the energy system, like the Transition, can have a direct and positive impact on them. Writing for the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), Alice Napoleon, Donna Brutkoski and Nancy Seidman describe … [Read more...]
Bounceback or Recession? Modelling the impact on electricity prices to 2025
Carlos Perez Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool models three scenarios to understand the factors that are having the biggest impact on – and thereby make predictions for - electricity prices, revenues, energy source merit order, and emissions in the EU. Other parameters in the scope of their analysis include oil prices, gas prices, commodities markets, carbon taxes, and the EUA/emissions market. Clearly, collapsing prices are profoundly distorting … [Read more...]
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