Alex Schmitt, Christoph Kellermann, Calvin Triems and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool have used their modelling tools to update their predictions of how the European electricity market will develop over the next 30 years, given a target of 99% emission-free generation in 2050. Projections are made on generation (mix and volumes) and price. The big change from their last predictions is the Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s determination to ramp … [Read more...]
EU Heat Pumps: warnings against “one size fits all” policies
The EU is aiming for the installation of 50 million heat pumps by 2030, equating to annual growth of 16%, reaching one third of the total 150 million boiler installations in the bloc. Helen Farrell reviews these ambitious targets and the policies that are driving them, and turns to a report by RAP to identify the weaknesses in the plan and how it can be improved. The main danger is a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Different countries have … [Read more...]
Netherlands and China co-operate on Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage for heating and cooling
Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) accesses the stable temperature of groundwater to warm buildings in winter and cool them in summer. The solution uses much less power than conventional heating and cooling systems. As Daisy Chi at ECECP explains, ATES first took off in China in the 1960s but ran into problems with the required circulation of the groundwater. However, the technology has been developed and optimised in the Netherlands: of the … [Read more...]
Why sustainable Buildings are critical for a resilient, healthier society
Europe and its Member States are committing large sums to buildings renovations. The policy emphasis has been on insulation, energy savings and emissions reduction. The latest Healthy Homes Barometer 2022 by Velux draws attention to the health benefits of renovations that target damp, lack of daylight, excess noise or cold, and other indoor climate hazards. To get an idea of the scale of the problem, 34 million Europeans are unable to keep their … [Read more...]
What can replace Russian gas: modelling Germany’s options on renewables, coal, nuclear, LNG, lowering thermostats
A sudden cut in Russian gas imports means Germany will have to cope with the loss of TWhs. How? Tobias Federico at Energy Brainpool wants decision-makers to get the facts straight. He uses modelling tools to answer this question that is causing fierce debate. The first thing to note is that the loss of gas TWhs (of the order of 100TWh) will be most felt in the provision of heat over winter. Heating systems mostly depends on gas, so intermittent … [Read more...]
Smart households in a high Renewables world: flexible, efficient, cheaper
Smart controls can enable household heating and EVs to interact flexibly with increasingly decentralised electricity generation. As renewables continue to be added to the energy mix, it will increase efficiency, reduce load, and save money. Marco Reiser and Karoline Steinbacher at Guidehouse summarise the challenges and opportunities, before looking at the SINTEG pilot in Germany. The main hurdles are technological (standardisation, interfaces, … [Read more...]
Germany’s electrification ambitions: TSOs scenario for 91% Renewables by 2045
The German TSOs submitted in January scenarios for their grid to 2037, making projections for increasing electrification. In addition, and for the first time, they included an ambitious and long term scenario to 2045. By pure chance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s response – to consider a reduction in its serious dependence on Russian energy imports – should make eyes turn sharply towards that 2045 scenario. Simon Göss at cr.hub, … [Read more...]
If Buildings Renovation fails, the EU ETS pricing mechanism must change
If the EU “Renovation Wave” for buildings fails, the massive ramp up of clean electrification required to compensate will come into direct conflict with EU ETS pricing formulas, say Sebastian Osorio and Michael Pahle at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Oliver Ruhnau at the Hertie School in Berlin. If the cap in the original ETS is too tight relative to the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) targets, its carbon prices may rise … [Read more...]
District Heating Roundtable: Policy across RED, EED and EPBD “must take account of conditions in all Member States”
Sara Stefanini provides a written summary of our panel discussion held on 10th February: District Heating under the "Fit for 55" package: challenges and opportunities. Under the “Fit for 55” package, the EC proposed several regulatory changes that, combined, are meant to decarbonise district heating in Europe. But are these options workable for all? The participants raise questions over the support for district heating, whether the multiple … [Read more...]
District Heating: policies for cutting emissions need work says IEA
District Heating policies need urgent attention according to the IEA so here in Europe it's a good moment to examine what the "Fit for 55" package means for the sector's future development. On February 10 Energy Post is hosting an online roundtable alongside MEP Pernille Weiss, MEP Morten Petersen, and MEP Grzegorz Tobiszowski - all (senior) members of the ITRE committee - to take in the viewpoints of key Member States and stakeholders (COGEN … [Read more...]
New York City to stop new buildings connecting to the Gas network
New York City is the U.S.’s largest metropolis, over twice the size of second spot Los Angeles, and is still growing. It has just passed a bill that effectively stops new buildings from hooking up to the gas network. The significance is not simply because of NYC’s global prominence, but because it gets very cold in winter with average temperatures just above freezing point. The move is a major win for the electrification of buildings. The … [Read more...]
Intelligent, flexible Sector Coupling in cities can double the potential for Wind and Solar
This week the European Commission tabled the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) which should accelerate the decarbonisation of buildings. Buildings and cities play a key role in the energy transition. And the target high shares of variable renewable power supply will be much more easily achieved if the sectors using them display demand flexibility. In essence, that means using or storing the excess wind and solar generation … [Read more...]
When Electrification is cheaper than maintaining Gas infrastructure
The gas sector continuously faces major expenses to maintain and replace aging distribution systems. Non-Pipeline Alternatives (NPAs) are solutions that avoid the scale of these infrastructure costs by judiciously spending money on cutting future gas use instead. Given gas’s limited long-term future in a net-zero world, this makes sense. It’s not just about efficiency wins, explains Max Dupuy at RAP who summarises their research. Gas utilities … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: strategies and case studies for reaching net-zero by 2050
Technological solutions on their own are unlikely to deliver emissions reductions at the speed and scale required to reach net zero by 2050. Daniel Crow, Insa Handschuch, Gabriel Saive and Leonie Staas at the IEA look at a suite of policy-driven citizen “behaviour changes” that should be used to bridge the gap. The impact will be greatest in advanced economies where energy intensity is highest. Meanwhile, in emerging economies the good habits put … [Read more...]
Central and Eastern Europe’s buildings renovation plans fall far short of 55% emissions cuts
There are big decarbonisation gains to be had in a renovation wave in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) precisely because their building stock is very energy-inefficient, explains Christophe Jost at CEE Bankwatch. But Bankwatch's report on eight national plans - Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – reveals weaknesses in scale, funding, strategy and policy. Many are planning to comply with only the former 40% … [Read more...]
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