Huangluolun Zhou, Elena Dahlem and Alex Schmitt at Energy Brainpool present their updated “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, modelling how the European energy system will undergo major changes in the coming decades while continuing to guarantee a secure supply and meet its climate targets. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for solar PV and wind? The two main scenarios are “Central” and “GoHydrogen” for the EU 27 … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
Cost vs Resilience: Europe’s sourcing strategy will shape the regional Hydrogen economy
The upcoming EU Hydrogen Bank pilot auction and trilogue discussions are focussing minds on the future of hydrogen. Jonas Lotze and Massimo Moser at TransnetBW and Janina Erb, Roman Flatau, Felix Greven and Max Labmayr at d-fine present the results of their modelling of two hydrogen sourcing scenarios: "Global Market" (GM) where the import of hydrogen into Europe is unrestricted, and "Energy Resilient Europe" (ERE) where almost all hydrogen is … [Read more...]
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now building more Renewables, less Coal
Energy has always made up the majority of investments and construction deals signed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Until very recently these investments were dominated by fossil fuel projects. But in the first half of this year, over 40% of BRI energy projects announced were wind and solar, with 22% each for gas and oil, and zero for coal projects. The reasons include China’s stated commitment to clean energy, avoiding the risk … [Read more...]
How much protection from carbon-intensive imports will CBAM give to EU industries?
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is not a business-as-usual instrument that allows sectors to delay decarbonisation. It applies a levy on imported goods equal to the internal EU ETS-related carbon price, so that both EU-produced goods and those imported into the EU face similar carbon cost pressures. But sectors must use the CBAM phase-in period to decarbonise. Pablo Ruiz and Barbara Kölbl at Rabobank look at how different … [Read more...]
When 0.2% Methane leakage can make Gas dirtier than Coal
Around the world gas is replacing coal to reduce emissions. But even small amounts of methane leakage in the gas life-cycle can make emissions on par with or even worse than coal, explain Shannon Hughes and Deborah Gordon at RMI. They present their calculator that shows if West Virginia state's gas methane leakage rate is just 1.4% their emissions equal the coal it replaces. Texas Permian LNG exported to China only needs a leakage rate of 0.2% to … [Read more...]
Fossil producer UAE to host COP28: what are Gulf states doing to decarbonise?
COP28 in November is being hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major oil and gas producer. The COP President will be Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, one of the world’s biggest oil companies. It’s attracted heavy criticism from many quarters. Robin Mills at the Center on Global Energy Policy reviews the contradictions inherent in a leading fossil producing nation hosting the world’s most important decarbonisation forum. The Gulf states … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
First-of-a-kind U.S. utility pilots community Geothermal to cut emissions and bills
For the first time in the U.S. a utility is piloting a community geothermal project to heat and cool 40 buildings and cut customers’ bills. Success will lead to scale up and replication, explains Adele Peters writing for the World Economic Forum. The case for community geothermal is very strong. Though geothermal’s up-front costs of installing pipes deep underground are high, running costs are low. The pilot, in Framingham (Massachusetts), will … [Read more...]
Germany to ramp up the decarbonisation of Buildings Heating from Jan 1st 2024. How?
Decarbonising heating is a major challenge for any country. Germany’s Building Energy Act (GEG) means that from 2024 every newly installed heating system, in new or existing buildings, must operate with a minimum of 65% renewable energy. Concerns over the costs to customers (installing new and expensive systems, or paying a penalty for fossil heating) has led to intense debates, hence the new law includes a range of subsidies, bonuses, discounted … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture rates of 60% sound impressive. But rising carbon prices could still make you commercially unviable
Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Will U.S. become the Global Gas Market’s source of flexibility and security of supply?
The U.S. will take the lead in offering flexibility and security of supply to the global gas market, and at prices linked to its wholesale gas market, the most liquid in the world, argue Kong Chyong and Ira Joseph at the Center on Global Energy Policy. It’s because the U.S. leads in the three key sources of gas trade flexibility, critical to meeting unexpected supply and demand gaps: natural gas storage systems, spare capacity in production and … [Read more...]
Nearly half of national climate pledges (NDCs) intend to keep extracting fossil fuels
“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are a nation’s published plans to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Natalie Jones at the IISD, writing for Carbon Brief, summarises her co-authored study that reviews the fossil fuel production element of those NDCs. Nations are obliged to update their NDCs every five years, to give more detail. That added detail is a cause for concern in the latest round of NDCs: there is an … [Read more...]
Power to the people: citizen-centred Just Transitions challenge energy system centralisation
EU Member States need to phase-out coal and transform their carbon-intensive industries to make Europe climate-neutral. However, these should not be the only goals: transparency and justice must also accompany this path, argue Diana SĂĽsser at IEECP, Serafeim Michas at TEESlab and Ricardo Antonio GarcĂa Mira at the University of A Coruna. As Member States implement their territorial just transition plans, they must ensure they benefit affected … [Read more...]
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