We need to cut global methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75% by 2030 to be on target to limit warming to 1.5°C. That equates to 90 Mt of the current total of 120 Mt of annual fossil fuel methane emissions. The IEA says 80 Mt can be avoided through the deployment of known and existing technologies, often at low – or even negative – cost. And the 75% cut needs $170bn in spending to 2030, a very achievable sum given it represents less than 5% of … [Read more...]
EU Carbon Prices halved in a year. But they should rise again
European carbon allowances (EUAs) are trading at around €60/t. One year ago, it was at an all-time high of €100/t. Hæge Fjellheim at Veyt explains why, and why prices should recover. Economically, the drop is due to two main factors: lower gas prices and shrinking energy demand from industry. Politically, additional supply of EUAs came from the EU’s REPowerEU plan to accelerate the energy transition and break dependency on Russian gas by partly … [Read more...]
Two years on, how is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving energy security and decarbonisation?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Gulf States are investing in Carbon Capture to maintain Hydrocarbon business
The Gulf region wants to maintain their substantial revenues from hydrocarbons in a decarbonising world. One way to do that is to invest in carbon capture, to make cleaner and more marketable fossil fuel products. Megren Almutairi and Karen Young at CGEP look at their current plans and future prospects. Right now, about 10% of CO2 captured globally is in the industrial facilities of the Gulf States. Their national oil companies boast some of the … [Read more...]
Will EU decarbonisation policies shift the Fertiliser industry into making Ammonia for energy (but outside the EU)?
The EU’s fertiliser industry must face up to the region’s ambitious decarbonisation rules, making its carbon-intensive processes much more costly. But a door of opportunity is also being opened: the industry already produces ammonia which is increasingly being seen as an alternative clean fuel, explains Hyung-Ja de Zeeuw at Rabobank. The problem for EU nations is that it will be cheaper for the industry to relocate and make that ammonia somewhere … [Read more...]
Is global energy security being used as an excuse to build more U.S. LNG export capacity?
Europe’s energy security is being used as an excuse in the U.S. to build more LNG terminals than are actually needed, argues Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz at IEEFA. European gas demand is expected to keep falling. Even with U.S. projects that are currently under construction, its LNG export capacity in 2030 will be 76% higher than Europe’s forecast demand. The U.S. should seriously re-evaluate its strategy or risk overinvestment, says … [Read more...]
Biogas from dairy farms: what incentives can make it commercially viable?
Anaerobic digesters are used to turn cow manure into useable methane fuel. But the raw cost of that gas is ten times the market price. On the plus side, emissions are being avoided. So how do you create the incentives that are fair and make it commercially viable? In California, dairy biogas has risen from almost non-existence five years ago to delivering half of all natural gas used for transportation in the state. Aaron Smith at the Energy … [Read more...]
EU’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions drop to levels last seen in the 1960s
The EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (including power generation, industry and transport) dropped 8% in 2023 year-on-year, reaching levels last seen in the early 1960s, reveals an analysis by CREA. More than half of that decline came from an impressive 25% year-on-year reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation. The cleaner electricity mix is thanks to the continuous rise of wind and solar as well as a rebound in hydropower and nuclear. … [Read more...]
Germany: Carbon Prices could phase-out Coal by 2030 without a new law
The upward trend in the carbon price since 2015 has already seen coal generation decline significantly. Last year, total generation was a little over 100 TWh; it was 263 TWh in 2003. Sebastian Ligewie at Energy Brainpool looks at the prices of hard coal, lignite and the EUAs (EU emission allowances). It’s around €37 per MWh for hard coal and €8 for lignite. But emissions costs of around €63 per MWh for hard coal and €84 for lignite are added to … [Read more...]
Five major outcomes from COP28 (and next year’s is in Azerbaijan, another oil and gas producer)
Mark Maslin, Priti Parikh and Simon Chin-Yee at UCL lay out the five major outcomes from the latest COP28 climate summit in the UAE, a major oil and gas producer. Though in the run up there was great hope for a new climate agreement on the phasing out of all fossil fuels, that never happened. Phase out turned into a “transition away from.” The authors note that the first ever mention of fossil fuels in an international climate agreement was only … [Read more...]
Most investors still aren’t factoring in climate risks. Oil and Gas firms face virtually no additional borrowing costs
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent due to climate change. At the same time, global decarbonisation is changing the economics of the energy sector. Yet credit ratings agencies aren’t consistently factoring in the risk of climate-related change into borrowing costs, explains Matt Burke at the University of Oxford. For example, oil and gas firms are facing virtually no additional borrowing costs. It’s a similar story for governments … [Read more...]
Heat Pump + Gas Boiler hybrids can reduce bills and emissions faster than a 100% heat pump roll out
The reduction in buildings emissions is well off track, not least in the residential sector. Something governments and millions of households are well aware of. The problem with replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump is the up-front cost and disruption. Installing the heat pump alone can cost several thousands more than replacing a gas boiler. On top of that, you should properly insulate your home and replace the radiators. Jovana Radulovic at … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: power prices and revenues predicted for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Huangluolun Zhou, Elena Dahlem and Alex Schmitt at Energy Brainpool present their updated “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, modelling how the European energy system will undergo major changes in the coming decades while continuing to guarantee a secure supply and meet its climate targets. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for solar PV and wind? The two main scenarios are “Central” and “GoHydrogen” for the EU 27 … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
Cost vs Resilience: Europe’s sourcing strategy will shape the regional Hydrogen economy
The upcoming EU Hydrogen Bank pilot auction and trilogue discussions are focussing minds on the future of hydrogen. Jonas Lotze and Massimo Moser at TransnetBW and Janina Erb, Roman Flatau, Felix Greven and Max Labmayr at d-fine present the results of their modelling of two hydrogen sourcing scenarios: "Global Market" (GM) where the import of hydrogen into Europe is unrestricted, and "Energy Resilient Europe" (ERE) where almost all hydrogen is … [Read more...]
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