The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Though the price shocks hurt, Renewables installed between 2021-23 saved Europe €100bn
According to the IEA, without the solar and wind capacity additions made in 2021-23 Europe’s energy costs would have been €100bn higher in those three years, as prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unexpected drop in output from nuclear and hydro. That money saved is another reason why the ramp up of renewables is so important, explains Joe Myers writing for the World Economic Forum who summarises the IEA data. Natural gas … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Russia’s war has exposed France and Germany’s energy policy differences. Can it also bring them together?
France and Germany combined account for 45% of EU GDP and 40% of energy consumption. No wonder they are the most influential EU members. But the Russia-induced energy crisis has forced both Paris and Berlin to expose and admit the differences in their national energy strategies, and that has made a search for a unified voice for Europe’s ambitious climate targets much harder to achieve, explain Camille Lafrance and Benjamin Wehrmann at CLEW. … [Read more...]
Russia’s oil export revenue rebounded in March–April. Why aren’t the EU, U.S. and partners enforcing the price cap?
The Price Cap Coalition (PCC) - composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the UK, and the U.S. – are failing to either enforce or lower the cap on Russian oil exports as promised, says a report summarised here from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Had it done so, Russian revenues could have been slashed by €22bn (37%) since December by lowering the price cap for crude oil to $30/barrel and revising the caps for oil … [Read more...]
Can the U.S. export its Nuclear plants to Europe, starting with Poland?
The exclusion of Russia from Europe’s energy future opens a door for the U.S. to export its nuclear plants, explain Matt Bowen and Sagatom Saha at the Center on Global Energy Policy. That’s why, in April, the U.S. announced financing of up to $4bn to deploy U.S. small modular reactors (SMRs) in Poland. A successful deployment there could lead to the same in Romania, Slovakia, Estonia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine, all of which have coal plants … [Read more...]
Lookahead to 2024 27-nation EU Parliamentary elections: will ambitious climate policies win or lose votes?
In June next year Europeans from 27 nations will elect a new EU Parliament that will shape the bloc’s energy and climate policy in the years leading to the 2030 climate target deadline. It’s not clear whether rising prices, energy security and heatwaves will steer votes towards parties pushing for more rapid decarbonisation, or whether the cost and disruption of transition will do the exact opposite. At the last election in 2019 climate concerns … [Read more...]
Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year
The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
Germany: does the LNG infrastructure build-up deliver energy security or go too far?
A report out this month from the German government says it wants a significant “safety buffer” of new LNG import capacity, to ensure that the country - and neighbouring landlocked states - will receive sufficient supply of natural gas in the coming years. It says an overcapacity is needed in case of failures due to accidents, sabotage or other external factors not under German or EU control. Events have shown that unilateral dependencies in … [Read more...]
EU: data shows Russia–Ukraine war has not increased Coal and emissions. It’s quite the opposite
The Russian gas crisis has not resulted in the return of coal and high emissions in Europe, says Lauri Myllyvirta at CREA. He presents the figures that show quite the opposite. Coal returned, as expected, with the post-Covid rebound, but peaked in September 2022 below its pre-Covid level, and has been falling since along with emissions. Meanwhile, high gas prices caused by Russia’s cut-off has kept gas demand low and, more importantly, driven the … [Read more...]
Russia–Ukraine war: household energy costs worldwide have nearly doubled, with the poorest hit hardest
A new study measures the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on household energy costs worldwide. It’s nearly doubled, explain Klaus Hubacek, Jin Yan and Yuru Guan at the University of Groningen and Yuli Shan at the University of Birmingham. Their study sums the costs of direct energy like heating, cooling, lighting and mobility, as well as the indirect costs through the energy used to produce goods and services. That doubling translates into an … [Read more...]
Will Europe now commit to long term imports of large quantities of LNG?
The EU and European nations need a more secure LNG supply strategy than just buying on the spot market where there is little control of prices and quantities. With Russian gas off the agenda for the foreseeable future, it’s LNG that’s filled the gap. But spot prices have been extremely high, and may return to the same heights. And though China’s Covid-caused drop in LNG consumption helped enable Europe to buy enough for now, that won’t be the … [Read more...]
Gas: a history of Energy Security in the EU. And what’s next post-Russia?
The security of supply of gas has been the hottest topic of the last 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. James Kneebone at the Florence School of Regulation (FSR) has written an explainer that lays out the EU’s history of dealing with energy security, going back to the 1990s. Because the EU has a single market for natural gas and widely shared value chains (pipelines, LNG terminals, storage, etc.), impacts are felt across the bloc. But that … [Read more...]
Electricity Market Design: how can reforms accelerate the transition and help cut energy prices?
*** REGISTER NOW *** for our online panel discussion on Friday 24th March 09:30-10:45 CET, “Electricity Market Design: how can reforms accelerate the transition and help cut energy prices?” Our panellists are Catharina Sikow-Magny, Director, DG ENER; Wanda Buk, Vice-President for Regulatory Affairs, PGE; Leonardo Meeus, Director of the Florence School of Regulation; JĂ©rĂ´me Le Page, Director for European Electricity Markets, EFET; Michaela … [Read more...]
Europe needs a Regional Green Bank to fulfil its Green Deal and match the U.S.
Three years in, the European Green Deal remains unfulfilled as a long-term vision for decarbonising Europe by 2050, says Esmeralda Colombo at EIEE. To inject new momentum, in this week’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, EC President Ursula von der Leyen sketched out a Green Deal Industrial Plan to subsidise the cleantech industry and compete with the rest of the world, notably the US, and the EU Sovereignty Fund to equalise the … [Read more...]
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