The European Green Deal was not designed to cope with the extraordinary series of overlapping crises the world has been facing. Though the EU has ultimately been reinforced through crises, that may not continue, explain Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega and Diana-Paula Gherasim at IFRI who summarise their study “How Can the Green Deal Adapt to a Brutal World?” Costs are rising and investment is not keeping pace. Dependence on China and the burst of … [Read more...]
Two years on, how is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving energy security and decarbonisation?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Deadly loophole: third countries are refining Russian oil and exporting it to EU and G7 perfectly legally
There is a loophole in the sanctions imposed by EU/G7 countries that prohibit the importation of Russian crude oil and oil products. Third countries not imposing sanctions can import Russian crude, refine it into oil products and legally export them to price cap coalition countries (PCC). An analysis by CREA reveals that €8.5bn of PCC imports of oil products in the 13 months to the end of 2023 were made from Russian crude. Also, in 2023, there … [Read more...]
Can the EU and US end their dependence on Russia’s nuclear energy industry?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in the EU and the US quickly imposing sanctions on imports of Russian oil and gas. But sanctions on Russia’s nuclear exports have been far lighter because alternatives are hard to find. Ihor Moshenets at the Central European University takes a deep dive into the current situation. He takes a close look at the EU and the US’s actual level of dependence, as well as moves by both to develop and enlarge their own … [Read more...]
Europe is updating its price cap sanctions on Russian oil. How to make them work?
The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
Carbon Pricing: almost 25% of emissions now covered globally, but coverage and prices must rise further
Despite early scepticism, carbon pricing is making its mark globally. Today almost a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are covered by a carbon price, compared to just 7% ten years ago. 73 national and sub-national jurisdictions have carbon pricing, explain Joseph Pryor and Venkat Ramana Putti at The World Bank, writing for the Florence School of Regulation and quoting from the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2023 … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Though the price shocks hurt, Renewables installed between 2021-23 saved Europe €100bn
According to the IEA, without the solar and wind capacity additions made in 2021-23 Europe’s energy costs would have been €100bn higher in those three years, as prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unexpected drop in output from nuclear and hydro. That money saved is another reason why the ramp up of renewables is so important, explains Joe Myers writing for the World Economic Forum who summarises the IEA data. Natural gas … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Russia’s war has exposed France and Germany’s energy policy differences. Can it also bring them together?
France and Germany combined account for 45% of EU GDP and 40% of energy consumption. No wonder they are the most influential EU members. But the Russia-induced energy crisis has forced both Paris and Berlin to expose and admit the differences in their national energy strategies, and that has made a search for a unified voice for Europe’s ambitious climate targets much harder to achieve, explain Camille Lafrance and Benjamin Wehrmann at CLEW. … [Read more...]
Russia’s oil export revenue rebounded in March–April. Why aren’t the EU, U.S. and partners enforcing the price cap?
The Price Cap Coalition (PCC) - composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the UK, and the U.S. – are failing to either enforce or lower the cap on Russian oil exports as promised, says a report summarised here from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Had it done so, Russian revenues could have been slashed by €22bn (37%) since December by lowering the price cap for crude oil to $30/barrel and revising the caps for oil … [Read more...]
Can the U.S. export its Nuclear plants to Europe, starting with Poland?
The exclusion of Russia from Europe’s energy future opens a door for the U.S. to export its nuclear plants, explain Matt Bowen and Sagatom Saha at the Center on Global Energy Policy. That’s why, in April, the U.S. announced financing of up to $4bn to deploy U.S. small modular reactors (SMRs) in Poland. A successful deployment there could lead to the same in Romania, Slovakia, Estonia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine, all of which have coal plants … [Read more...]
Lookahead to 2024 27-nation EU Parliamentary elections: will ambitious climate policies win or lose votes?
In June next year Europeans from 27 nations will elect a new EU Parliament that will shape the bloc’s energy and climate policy in the years leading to the 2030 climate target deadline. It’s not clear whether rising prices, energy security and heatwaves will steer votes towards parties pushing for more rapid decarbonisation, or whether the cost and disruption of transition will do the exact opposite. At the last election in 2019 climate concerns … [Read more...]
Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year
The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
Germany: does the LNG infrastructure build-up deliver energy security or go too far?
A report out this month from the German government says it wants a significant “safety buffer” of new LNG import capacity, to ensure that the country - and neighbouring landlocked states - will receive sufficient supply of natural gas in the coming years. It says an overcapacity is needed in case of failures due to accidents, sabotage or other external factors not under German or EU control. Events have shown that unilateral dependencies in … [Read more...]
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