The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
Germany: does the LNG infrastructure build-up deliver energy security or go too far?
A report out this month from the German government says it wants a significant “safety buffer” of new LNG import capacity, to ensure that the country - and neighbouring landlocked states - will receive sufficient supply of natural gas in the coming years. It says an overcapacity is needed in case of failures due to accidents, sabotage or other external factors not under German or EU control. Events have shown that unilateral dependencies in … [Read more...]
EU: data shows Russia–Ukraine war has not increased Coal and emissions. It’s quite the opposite
The Russian gas crisis has not resulted in the return of coal and high emissions in Europe, says Lauri Myllyvirta at CREA. He presents the figures that show quite the opposite. Coal returned, as expected, with the post-Covid rebound, but peaked in September 2022 below its pre-Covid level, and has been falling since along with emissions. Meanwhile, high gas prices caused by Russia’s cut-off has kept gas demand low and, more importantly, driven the … [Read more...]
Russia–Ukraine war: household energy costs worldwide have nearly doubled, with the poorest hit hardest
A new study measures the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on household energy costs worldwide. It’s nearly doubled, explain Klaus Hubacek, Jin Yan and Yuru Guan at the University of Groningen and Yuli Shan at the University of Birmingham. Their study sums the costs of direct energy like heating, cooling, lighting and mobility, as well as the indirect costs through the energy used to produce goods and services. That doubling translates into an … [Read more...]
Will Europe now commit to long term imports of large quantities of LNG?
The EU and European nations need a more secure LNG supply strategy than just buying on the spot market where there is little control of prices and quantities. With Russian gas off the agenda for the foreseeable future, it’s LNG that’s filled the gap. But spot prices have been extremely high, and may return to the same heights. And though China’s Covid-caused drop in LNG consumption helped enable Europe to buy enough for now, that won’t be the … [Read more...]
Gas: a history of Energy Security in the EU. And what’s next post-Russia?
The security of supply of gas has been the hottest topic of the last 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. James Kneebone at the Florence School of Regulation (FSR) has written an explainer that lays out the EU’s history of dealing with energy security, going back to the 1990s. Because the EU has a single market for natural gas and widely shared value chains (pipelines, LNG terminals, storage, etc.), impacts are felt across the bloc. But that … [Read more...]
Electricity Market Design: how can reforms accelerate the transition and help cut energy prices?
*** REGISTER NOW *** for our online panel discussion on Friday 24th March 09:30-10:45 CET, “Electricity Market Design: how can reforms accelerate the transition and help cut energy prices?” Our panellists are Catharina Sikow-Magny, Director, DG ENER; Wanda Buk, Vice-President for Regulatory Affairs, PGE; Leonardo Meeus, Director of the Florence School of Regulation; Jérôme Le Page, Director for European Electricity Markets, EFET; Michaela … [Read more...]
Europe needs a Regional Green Bank to fulfil its Green Deal and match the U.S.
Three years in, the European Green Deal remains unfulfilled as a long-term vision for decarbonising Europe by 2050, says Esmeralda Colombo at EIEE. To inject new momentum, in this week’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, EC President Ursula von der Leyen sketched out a Green Deal Industrial Plan to subsidise the cleantech industry and compete with the rest of the world, notably the US, and the EU Sovereignty Fund to equalise the … [Read more...]
How to tax renewable energy firms for windfall profits from high wholesale electricity prices
Should windfall taxes be imposed on renewable energy firms that have benefitted from the current high electricity prices caused by the increases in oil, gas and coal prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? If so, how, and how much? The IEA has conducted a study of the EU to try to uncover who has (and hasn’t) made extraordinary profits, and how much. Up front they say this is difficult to do as the majority of installed renewable … [Read more...]
Russia, fossil prices, energy security will boost Renewables to 38% of global power mix by 2027, says IEA
The IEA has raised its 2027 forecasts for total renewables additions in its main scenario to 2,383GW – around the total power capacity of China. That’s a 28% increase on the previous estimate and up 76% from two years ago, explains Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief who summarises the IEA’s latest forecasts. Globally, solar power will overtake gas by installed capacity in 2026 and coal in 2027. There are two main drivers for this acceleration. High … [Read more...]
How Europe is countering Russia’s weaponisation of energy – CEDE 2022 event summary
Simon Göss provides a written summary of our two panel discussions held in Brussels on Thursday December 8th 2022. Panel 1 was titled “The Availability and Affordability of Gas and Energy in CEE and EU”, Panel 2 “The War in Ukraine: Security of Critical Energy Infrastructure”. The issues covered include EU policy interventions for countering the Russian weaponisation of energy, cooperation with Ukraine, how far is Europe prepared, spill-over … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: how will power prices and revenues develop for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Alex Schmitt and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool present a summary of their “EU Energy Outlook 2060”. Its scenarios map out how the European (EU 27, UK, Switzerland and Norway) energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. Current geopolitical tensions are added to climate mitigation and an outdated power plant fleet as the main drivers of change at the EU and national levels. The in-depth modelling is trying to answer the … [Read more...]
EU gas post-Russia: out-of-date regulations are preventing new gas flows from west to east, not infrastructure
### REGISTER NOW ### for our vitally important 2-panel event “The Energy Crisis and Russian Aggression Against Ukraine – Key Challenges for the Central European Energy Sector”, on Thursday December 8, 13:00 – 17:00 CET (Address: Rue Belliard 40, 1040 Brussels). High-profile confirmed speakers include Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy, EC; Leszek Jesień, Chairman of the Board, CEEP; Jerzy Buzek, MEP and former president of the … [Read more...]
What was Europe’s dependence on gas prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
### REGISTER NOW ### for our vitally important 2-panel event “The Energy Crisis and Russian Aggression Against Ukraine – Key Challenges for the Central European Energy Sector”, on Thursday December 8, 13:00 – 17:00 CET (Address: Rue Belliard 40, 1040 Brussels). High-profile confirmed speakers include Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy, EC; Leszek Jesień, Chairman of the Board, CEEP; Jerzy Buzek, MEP and former president of the … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine: Critical Infrastructure Protection from sabotage is an unprecedented challenge the EU must face now
### REGISTER NOW ### for our vitally important 2-panel event “The Energy Crisis and Russian Aggression Against Ukraine - Key Challenges for the Central European Energy Sector”, on Thursday December 8, 13:00 – 17:00 CET (Address: Rue Belliard 40, 1040 Brussels). High-profile confirmed speakers include Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy, EC; Leszek Jesień, Chairman of the Board, CEEP; Jerzy Buzek, MEP and former president of the … [Read more...]
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