Why have forecasts for new low-carbon energy consistently underestimated their cost reductions? The IEA has, famously, repeatedly had to raise its estimates for solarâs contribution every year since 2009, and now describes it as the âcheapest electricity in historyâ. Writing for Carbon Brief, Alexandra Poncia at Arup and Paul Drummond and Michael Grubb at University College London explain that standard models focus on âtechnology-pushâ policies, … [Read more...]
The energy transition needs some of the $12tn global Covid stimulus. But much less than you think
Governments worldwide have committed over $12tn to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, spent over the next 5 years. Current estimates say the energy transition needs $1.4tn/year globally between 2020 and 2024 to get us on the path to meet the 1.5oC Paris goal. Clearly, there is an opportunity here. Although support for healthcare systems and the overall economy are the stated priority of governments, much of that $12tn is still not committed. … [Read more...]
âGreenâ chemical plants that ramp up and down with wind, solar
One solution to variable renewables is to create customers that have no problem with ramping up and down production along with the power. In fact, when the wind and solar is producing too much power for the grid it can be bought very cheaply, making intermittent customers very happy. Jim Conca describes a new design for a Chlor-Alkali Chemical Plant that can âidleâ without critical components of the plant degrading â the main reason for a plant … [Read more...]
Methane emissions underestimated by 25-40%, says new study
The methane in our atmosphere comes from natural biogenic (plants, animals) and fossil sources. By telling the difference we can know how much we humans are responsible for. It matters because methane is a potent greenhouse gas, second only to CO2. Previous âbottom-upâ estimates came from multiplying the number of sources (livestock, natural gas operations, landfills) by their likely emissions. Robert McSweeney at Carbon Brief describes a new … [Read more...]
Peak Energy by 2030: Efficiency gains will make the Transition affordable
We canât afford the energy transition? Next time you hear that from someone, perhaps you can show them this. Sverre Alvik at DNV GL explains that, according to their latest Energy Transition Outlook, although annual global energy expenditure will have to increase from $4.6tn in 2017 to $5.5tn in 2050, its share of growing world GDP will almost halve from 3.6% to 1.9%. Thatâs because continuing energy efficiency gains are making sure that total … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trumpâs intention to further deregulate methane emissions. Thatâs because theyâve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEAâs WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this yearâs IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios wonât hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEAâs annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, itâs getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEAâs most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
Energy security v Transition in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey
Like most developing countries, the challenge of growing economies, increasing population and rapid urbanisation puts energy security above emissions reductions. So it is for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, says Duygu Sever in her report for IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. In this article she explains that all four countries nevertheless have high renewables deployment potential, and have already embraced wind and solar. To accelerate … [Read more...]
UN Climate Summit seeks NDCs, LTSs with deep sectoral changes
To pile on the pressure over climate negotiations, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening a special Climate Action Summit, starting today. Nations are being pressed to accelerate their ambitions and back them up with concrete and realistic plans. The summit will be focussed on six âaction areasâ: energy transition; industry transition; infrastructure, cities and local action; nature-based solutions; resilience and adaptation; … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEAâs WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
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