Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss at cr.hub reviews five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). He starts by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This article is about the … [Read more...]
18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree
A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors – these account … [Read more...]
The IEA explains its new “Net-Zero Emissions by 2050” roadmap
Today the IEA publishes its new special report, “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”, its deepest dive so far into what’s needed for a successful global transition. It analyses the options as well as the socio-economic, behavioural and environmental impacts they will have globally. Here, Laura Cozzi (Chief Energy Modeller) and Timur GĂĽl (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division) at the IEA summarise the key principles … [Read more...]
The standard models overestimate the cost of the low carbon transition
Why have forecasts for new low-carbon energy consistently underestimated their cost reductions? The IEA has, famously, repeatedly had to raise its estimates for solar’s contribution every year since 2009, and now describes it as the “cheapest electricity in history”. Writing for Carbon Brief, Alexandra Poncia at Arup and Paul Drummond and Michael Grubb at University College London explain that standard models focus on “technology-push” policies, … [Read more...]
IEA’s “accelerated case” becoming the norm? Global Wind + Solar to overtake Gas and Coal by 2024
The IEA’s 2019 “accelerated case” for renewables is turning into this year’s “main case”. It predicts that Wind and Solar capacity combined will overtake both Gas and Coal globally by 2024. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the IEA’s Renewables 2020 report. Within five years, renewables will constitute 1/3 of all electricity generation, equivalent to the combined demand of China and the EU. Virtually all global growth in electricity … [Read more...]
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2020 at a glance
This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This year’s WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated “Stated Policies Scenario” (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new “Delayed Recovery Scenario” (DRS: due to Covid), an updated “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS: what’s needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new “Net Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
Are 1.5°C scenarios supplanting “Business As Usual” as the new benchmark?
The world energy outlooks published annually by the IEA, BP and DNV GL look very different this year. 1.5°C scenarios are being taken much more seriously. Could it be because of the trauma of Covid-19, or the extraordinary – though still insufficient – success of renewables coupled with the rising ambition of climate-aware governments and their policies? Either way, they are helping to shift the debate away from the mainstream “business as usual” … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas’s future: diversify into clean electricity, new fuels, says IEA
The oil and gas industry is not doing nearly enough to meet Transition targets, says the IEA. Only 1% is invested in non-core activities. That needs to rise to 15% within 10 years. The IEA’s article summarises their comprehensive report “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions”, released this month. It explains how the industry’s existing skills and “deep pockets” make them ideally placed to invest in low-carbon fuels (Hydrogen, … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios won’t hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, it’s getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEA’s most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
IEA: Big energy firms cannot ignore the Transition
Alessandro Blasi and Alberto Toril of the IEA look at how oil and gas majors are still investing very little - of the order of a single percentage point - in clean energy projects. What they are doing in response to new anti-fossil climate policies is increasing investment in short cycle projects that generate cash and returns quickly, minimising risk. This is a questionable strategy, given the fundamental shift away from thermal power and fossil … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
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