The IEA is warning that biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel producers are heading for a feedstock supply crunch over the next five years. Rising prices are the signal to seek out new supplies and solutions, which should – and are - driving the development of government programmes and industry innovation. Here, the IEA lays out their projections for 2022-2027, covering all the main feedstocks: sugars, maize, soy oil, rapeseed oil, palm … [Read more...]
Making Hydrogen will consume 2% of total global renewable capacity growth by 2027
25 countries plus the EU have announced big ambitions for renewable hydrogen production. But how much renewable energy will be needed to make the H2 over the next five years? Nations are not keen to expend new clean energy generation on (expensive today) hydrogen production when their grids are still not emissions-free. According to the IEA, for 2022-2027, their main case forecasts around 50GW of renewable capacity will be dedicated to hydrogen … [Read more...]
30+ nations now subsidise Heat Pumps because lifetime cost is cheaper than fossil boilers
The global growth in heat pumps can deliver almost 40% of all possible emissions cuts from heating by 2030 (with most of the rest coming from efficiency, mainly insulation), says the IEA. This is according to their “Announced Pledges Scenario” (APS) which assumes that governments carry out all of the climate commitments they have made. Keeping buildings warm produces one-tenth of global energy-related CO2 emissions. So the APS’s heat pump growth … [Read more...]
How to tax renewable energy firms for windfall profits from high wholesale electricity prices
Should windfall taxes be imposed on renewable energy firms that have benefitted from the current high electricity prices caused by the increases in oil, gas and coal prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? If so, how, and how much? The IEA has conducted a study of the EU to try to uncover who has (and hasn’t) made extraordinary profits, and how much. Up front they say this is difficult to do as the majority of installed renewable … [Read more...]
Russia, fossil prices, energy security will boost Renewables to 38% of global power mix by 2027, says IEA
The IEA has raised its 2027 forecasts for total renewables additions in its main scenario to 2,383GW – around the total power capacity of China. That’s a 28% increase on the previous estimate and up 76% from two years ago, explains Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief who summarises the IEA’s latest forecasts. Globally, solar power will overtake gas by installed capacity in 2026 and coal in 2027. There are two main drivers for this acceleration. High … [Read more...]
IEA says peak coal is a few years away, but China’s demand for energy suggests not
Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business questions the IEA’s optimism revealed in its latest World Energy Outlook 2022 that predicted coal will peak in the next few years. In 2021, global coal consumption increased 5% and global electricity generation from coal reached an all-time high. China is the main driver - last year over half of all coal-fired electricity generation came from China - and its energy demand keeps rising. Between 2000 and … [Read more...]
Russia’s war is accelerating the clean energy transition, says IEA
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 is predicting that fossil fuels will peak in the next five years, “thanks to” Russia’s war and the resultant energy crisis. National climate promises are being turned into policies that improve energy security, which mostly means reducing dependence on gas. That means global energy demand growth to 2030 will “almost entirely” be met by renewables. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief takes an in-depth look at the … [Read more...]
Cutting energy usage with Behaviour Change: Covid and Russia’s war show it can happen fast
Technology alone won’t meet our net zero targets. For the foreseeable future there will always be carbon-intensive assets and hard-to-abate sectors. Only “behaviour change” by citizens worldwide can bridge the gap that technology cannot. And the reduced energy use that it delivers will also lower the targets that the rapid growth of clean energy supply are now chasing. Here the IEA lays out the challenges in its Behavioural Changes tracking … [Read more...]
China: decades of support for innovation is now delivering results
The evolution of China’s clean energy sector used to be based on a technology catch-up approach, which meant secondary innovation based on imported technologies. Daisy Chi at ECECP looks at the IEA’s recent report, “Tracking Clean Energy Innovation: Focus on China”, to conclude that the nation is now a major force in clean energy innovation. Decades of innovation-focussed policies, strong funding support, institutional reforms, big targets and … [Read more...]
Record Renewables additions for 2021 and 2022 despite supply bottlenecks prove Solar & Wind’s resilience
Despite – or perhaps because of – global market and political turmoil, renewable power is set to break another record in 2022. That’s after 2021 also saw record new capacity from solar, wind and other renewables worldwide. It’s mainly driven by solar PV in China and Europe as governments around the world take advantage of renewables’ energy security and climate benefits, according to the IEA’s latest Renewable Energy Market Update. 295GW of new … [Read more...]
Lower driving speeds + more: behaviour change can make up for 2.7m barrels/day loss of Russian oil imports
Russia normally exports 5m barrels of oil a day. Sanctions may now see Ukraine-supporting nations refuse to buy 3m of them. Can those nations cut their consumption by the same amount, immediately, and stop shortages and further price rises? Yes, says Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business. Following the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the IEA has released a report “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use”, with ten ideas for immediate actions in advanced … [Read more...]
Will turning down Europe’s thermostats ease the Gas supply crisis?
To counter the extremely high gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis the IEA has proposed turning thermostats down in households to use less gas. The IEA estimated lowering the heating by just 1°C would reduce gas demand by around 10 bn cubic metres a year, or 7% of Europe’s annual imports from Russia. Aurore Julien at the University of East London looks at quantifiable past attempts around the world to get citizens to cut their energy … [Read more...]
Russia-Ukraine and Europe’s energy strategy: a snapshot of a fast-moving crisis
Every day brings news of how Europe’s energy policy is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s a big topic and fast moving. Helen Farrell gives a summary of the situation so far. She lists some of the major U-turns at both EU and national levels, the IEA’s ten-point recommendations, the feasibility and repercussions of cutting Russian fossil imports, the prospects for clean energy (solar, wind, nuclear, storage) and our net zero targets. … [Read more...]
IEA WEO 2021 message to COP26: 40% of clean energy goals will cut costs
The IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook was published on Wednesday. This year’s WEO-2021 is released earlier than usual to inform COP26 and, for the first time, is available for free to ensure the widest possible audience. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief offers his summary of the 386-page report, quoting relevant numbers and charts. He first points to the new scenario, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE), as the IEA’s recognition that this is what … [Read more...]
Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications
Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub review five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). They start by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This … [Read more...]
