Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
IEA clean energy progress report: Only 7 technologies/sectors on track, 38 not
Of the 45 energy technologies and sectors assessed in the IEA’s latest Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) report, only 7 are on track with the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). It’s their latest and most comprehensive assessment of clean energy transitions. “On track” includes energy storage, EVs and solar PV. But buildings, car, flaring and methane emissions are still rising. This year’s TCEP puts much greater emphasis on … [Read more...]
IEA: Global energy investment stabilises at $1.8tn after 3 years of decline
Three consecutive years of declining global energy investment has ended. But it’s not risen, just stabilised at $1.8tn, according to the IEA’s latest report World Energy Investment 2019. To meet the Paris targets investment in efficiency needs to rise substantially, and double by 2030 for renewables: they have stalled for both. To meet soaring global energy demand oil and gas investments need to rise too. That demand is seeing cheap coal still … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture: Can CO2-EOR really provide carbon-negative oil?
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) injects CO2 into oil reservoirs, increasing the pressure and forcing the oil out. 20% of global oil production uses EOR. But if that CO2 doesn’t stay underground it hasn’t been captured. If it was itself extracted from natural underground CO2, there is no benefit – or worse. Ideally, it should come from already captured CO2. But most oil wells are nowhere near a CCUS (carbon capture, usage and storage) facility: in the … [Read more...]
IEA: Renewables growth worldwide is stalling
It’s bad enough that 2018 net capacity additions did not exceed 2017’s after two decades of strong growth. It is far more troubling that nobody saw it coming, says the IEA, who have laid out the data and main cause: stop-go policies. 2018's 180 GW is only 60% of what needs to be added each year to meet climate goals. China, the EU, India and Japan all fell back. Only emerging economies, developing countries and the US (slightly) saw growth. … [Read more...]
1.5°C: IEA’s scenarios will fail, need urgent review says letter from experts, business leaders
The letter’s signatories – experts, business leaders, politicians and more - call on the IEA to make the 1.5°C target the central scenario in its highly influential annual World Energy Outlook. At present, its “New Policies Scenario” puts us on track for between 2.7°C and 3.3°C. That's a problem, because too many energy decision-makers cite it as an acceptable guide, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even the “Sustainable Development … [Read more...]
We need to trace the real fossil fuel users, not just the “end consumers”
Climate-consciousness is rising among ordinary citizens. But most fossil fuels are consumed by large technological systems (electricity networks, urban transport systems, built environments, industrial and agricultural systems), not by individuals. Simon Pirani says we need to trace that consumption to its true source, and thereby put the pressure directly on them to transition. It’s not simple: even the IEA admits it loses track of who is … [Read more...]
“Energy Charter Treaty review should end protection for fossil fuels”
In her previous article Sarah Keay-Bright said the outdated Energy Charter Treaty protects old world fossil fuel investments over the wide range of new green investments now being made. The treaty is being reviewed by its signatories this year. In a concluding article, she and Steivan Defilla warn that the terms of reference for the ECT review don’t even mention the need to align the treaty with the Paris Agreement. They say the revised ECT must … [Read more...]
IEEFA: IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario is not enough
The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) – if it’s followed - sees the world limiting the temperature rise to below 2°C. Even if we stick to the plan the SDS gives us only a 50% chance of success. Tim Buckley at IEEFA says those odds are not good enough. Worse, the SDS depends on carbon capture and storage (CCS) achieving commercialisation at scale by 2030. The author explains why he thinks that’s unrealistic, and calls for the IEA to … [Read more...]
Analysis: BP’s outlook for fossil fuels could be undermined by slowing energy demand
BP’s latest projections, released last week, once again concede that their previous reports have been overestimating fossil fuel consumption and underestimating renewables. Yet BP still predicts total energy demand will grow indefinitely thanks to overall global growth, and fossil fuels will always be needed. But Simon Evans at Carbon Brief shows how these projections contrast starkly with McKinsey’s, who find that the efficiency of renewables … [Read more...]
IEA: Battery storage races to keep up with solar and wind’s demand-matching challenges
Yesterday’s article from the IEA posed the question: will solar’s inherent intermittency slow its rise as a major power supply. For variable renewables like solar and wind to grow to over 50% of global capacity additions by 2040, storage technology must keep up with this pace. For this to happen, “flexibility” – the ability of the power system to quickly adapt to changes in power supply and demand – needs to grow by some 80% in the next decade … [Read more...]
IEA: solar’s exponential growth could make it less competitive, not more
Solar’s current growth trajectory means a doubling of annual deployment every three years. But despite further expected reductions in some cost areas (e.g. cheaper tech and economies of scale), the IEA’s new VALCOE (value-adjusted levelised costs of electricity) metric calculates that solar’s relative competitiveness per unit added will actually decline as its inherent demand-matching issues scale up with the growth. Brent Wanner, WEO Energy … [Read more...]
Digitalisation is changing the energy landscape
The energy sector is already using data in sophisticated ways to meet a wide range of challenges, from fault prediction in grid networks to the delivery of personalised energy to households. As more data becomes “big data” and smart devices proliferate along the value chain, Matt Brown and Ravi Mahendra of Pöyry Management Consulting make their predictions for more digitalisation in the coming year. … [Read more...]
The compelling case for carbon capture and storage
By 2040 60% of primary energy will still come from fossil fuels, says the IEA. That means Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) must be part of the technology mix to hold back climate change. Yet today there are only 18 CCS facilities in operation, with 25 in the pipeline. We’ll need at least 2,000 by 2040. Brad Page, CEO of the Global CCS Institute, lays out the reasons why we have no time to lose. The World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos … [Read more...]
IEA: Future is electric and increasingly renewable
"The IEA is no longer the conservative bastion of oil it once was" writes Fereidoon Sioshansi. Distilling all 650 pages of their latest Outlook, he summarises how the pressing need to address climate change means the dwindling supremacy of oil is giving way to a growing role for electricity that will, amongst other things, cater for 1 billion EVs by 2040. Courtesy EEnergy Informer … [Read more...]
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