Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Clean Energy Innovation: investment continued to rise despite a turbulent 2022
In a turbulent year, financially and geopolitically, investment in energy innovation still rose. Public spending on energy R&D grew by 10% in 2022 (estimated at $44bn), with 80% devoted to clean energy. Listed energy-related companies saw a similar rise. And early-stage venture capital investment reached a new high of $6.7bn. But risks remain, explains Simon Bennett at the IEA who summarises the innovation chapter in their latest “World … [Read more...]
IEA report: global manufacturing capacity is expanding rapidly for solar, wind, batteries, electrolysers, heat pumps
The IEA summarises its special briefing, “The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing.” It’s a global update on recent progress in key regions, focussing on five technologies – solar PV, wind, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – critical to the energy transition. It should be read to keep decision makers informed of investment trends and the impact of industrial strategies. Overall, manufacturing capacity for these technologies is expanding … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas can meet 2030 net-zero target for only $600bn, quickly recouped. But it’s still not happening, warns IEA
The IEA summarises its 33-page report “Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions”. The IEA says the oil and gas sector needs £600bn up front to meet its 2030 target of a 60% reduction in emissions. That’s only 15% of the sector’s record 2022 energy-crisis windfall income. A small price increase and savings should recoup that money “quickly”, says the IEA. The IEA not only maps a way to limit the global average temperature rise … [Read more...]
Global “explosive” growth means 1 in 3 new cars will be electric by 2030. But SUV emissions could wipe out those gains
More than a third of all new vehicles sold globally in 2030 will be electric, according to the IEA. That’s a doubling of its prediction made only two years ago. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the report. The IEA describes the growth as “explosive”: from just 1% of global car sales in 2017, to 14% last year, and now 18% expected by the end of 2023. China has consistently dominated those sales while new policies in the U.S. and EU are … [Read more...]
Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year
The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
IEA’s global “CO2 Emissions in 2022” report: by sector, fuel, region, heating +more
The IEA has published “CO2 Emissions in 2022”, giving estimates of CO2 emissions from all energy sources and industrial processes globally. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt. Emissions from various sources (sector, fuel, region, heating, etc.) are broken down, with reasons for why the change happened. The report is part of the IEA’s first global stocktake of the … [Read more...]
IEA’s new CCUS projects database: a tool for driving much needed progress
The IEA has made available for the first time its CCUS projects database. The number of countries with plans to develop CCUS now stands at 45, with seven more countries - in central and southern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia – joining the list in 2022. The database covers CO2 capture, transport, storage, and utilisation projects worldwide commissioned since the 1970s, and have an announced capacity of more than 100,000 tonnes/year … [Read more...]
Hydrogen’s innovation pipeline: signals strong ahead of World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, May 9-11, 2023
The IEA and the European Patents Office have, for the first time, reported on patents filed worldwide to get a measure of the innovations we’re seeing in the hydrogen sector, summarised here by Ian Shine. Overall, Europe and Japan are leading. Although the U.S. is a close third, with 20% of the total, their filings have declined compared to the previous decade. The fastest growth is in China (15.2%) and South Korea (12.2%). There has been a … [Read more...]
Critical Minerals: will there be enough to meet the 2050 net-zero emissions target?
If the production and processing of critical minerals cannot keep up with the accelerating adoption of batteries, EVs, wind turbines and solar PV technologies, the pace and success of the global energy system transformation will be put at risk. In this explainer, Lilly Yejin Lee and James Glynn at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University address the big questions, drawing on the data underlying the IEA’s “The Role of Critical … [Read more...]
Embodied Carbon Emissions: understanding the different methodologies being used around the world
The measurement of the embodied carbon emissions of goods tells us what greenhouse gas emissions are generated during the production and transportation of those goods. This achieves two main things. Firstly, it allows producers to understand where their emissions are coming from, and so reduce them. Secondly, it opens the door to putting a price on those emissions, thus incentivising producers to reduce them. But, as Max Gruenig at E3G explains, … [Read more...]
Biofuel is approaching a feedstock crunch. How bad? And what must be done?
The IEA is warning that biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel producers are heading for a feedstock supply crunch over the next five years. Rising prices are the signal to seek out new supplies and solutions, which should – and are - driving the development of government programmes and industry innovation. Here, the IEA lays out their projections for 2022-2027, covering all the main feedstocks: sugars, maize, soy oil, rapeseed oil, palm … [Read more...]
Making Hydrogen will consume 2% of total global renewable capacity growth by 2027
25 countries plus the EU have announced big ambitions for renewable hydrogen production. But how much renewable energy will be needed to make the H2 over the next five years? Nations are not keen to expend new clean energy generation on (expensive today) hydrogen production when their grids are still not emissions-free. According to the IEA, for 2022-2027, their main case forecasts around 50GW of renewable capacity will be dedicated to hydrogen … [Read more...]
30+ nations now subsidise Heat Pumps because lifetime cost is cheaper than fossil boilers
The global growth in heat pumps can deliver almost 40% of all possible emissions cuts from heating by 2030 (with most of the rest coming from efficiency, mainly insulation), says the IEA. This is according to their “Announced Pledges Scenario” (APS) which assumes that governments carry out all of the climate commitments they have made. Keeping buildings warm produces one-tenth of global energy-related CO2 emissions. So the APS’s heat pump growth … [Read more...]
How to tax renewable energy firms for windfall profits from high wholesale electricity prices
Should windfall taxes be imposed on renewable energy firms that have benefitted from the current high electricity prices caused by the increases in oil, gas and coal prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? If so, how, and how much? The IEA has conducted a study of the EU to try to uncover who has (and hasn’t) made extraordinary profits, and how much. Up front they say this is difficult to do as the majority of installed renewable … [Read more...]
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