Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging âfugitiveâ leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
The history of evidence of CO2-driven climate change starts in the mid-1800s
Marc Hudson at the University of Sussex gives us a fascinating review of the history of climate change science. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, experimental evidence that CO2 traps heat dates back to the mid-1800s. The first predictions of global warming caused by humans came in 1895. The big change in perception took place in 1953. Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass (an academic whose career also … [Read more...]
IPCC AR6 report reveals a bigger impact at lower temperatures than previously predicted: health, crops, species loss +more
Published in March, the IPPCâs AR6 Synthesis Report on Climate Change updates its predictions of the effects of temperature rises. It starkly concludes that those temperature rises will have a bigger impact at lower temperatures than previously predicted. Charlotte Edmond, writing for the World Economic Forum, picks out five charts from the report to illustrate the point: the range of likely temperature rises; global map of change in temperature, … [Read more...]
IPCCâs latest AR6 synthesis report lacks urgency and realism. Its own numbers say so
Kevin Anderson at the University of Manchester explains his deep disappointment in the recently released and influential IPCC AR6 synthesis report. Even the mainstream media criticised the lack of urgency in the language. Andersonâs objections go further. He says the reportâs own figures show net-zero must be reached by 2040, not the âearly 2050sâ as stated. Anderson goes on to criticise the modelling used as the standard, saying it is formulated … [Read more...]
New AI model predicts 1.5C temperature rise is likely in 2030s even if emissions decline
A new artificial intelligence model is predicting that 2C warming is likely to occur and sooner than expected, even if current low-emissions strategies are successful, explains Josie Garthwaite at Stanford University. The Stanford-developed AI uses âneural networkâ learning from vast quantities of past data, predicting that the 1.5C threshold is likely to be crossed in the next 10 to 15 years. Thatâs regardless of how much greenhouse gas … [Read more...]
What does the âglobal carbon budgetâ mean? Have we got 9 years left?
Piers Forster and Debbie Rosen at the University of Leeds and Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, writing for Carbon Brief, look at the carbon budget estimates of the Global Carbon Project and the IPCC, the methodology and the inevitable uncertainties. They compare it to their own latest report from the CONSTRAIN research project. Where the GCP and the IPCC estimate nine years left of carbon emissions at current emission … [Read more...]
Global Wind Speeds: are they falling due to climate change?
Last year, Europe experienced a âwind droughtâ, with wind speeds falling 15% in many regions, sometimes more. Deeper research shows speeds dropped gradually between 1978 and 2010, though rose again in the last decade. Itâs difficult for the science to create a clear picture and predict long term trends. But the IPCC forecasts slowing winds for the coming decades, saying average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10% by 2100. Jim Robbins at … [Read more...]
Methane emissions reach unexpected new highs. Is climate change causing a runaway effect?
Simon Redfern at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore summarises his co-authored study that says methane emissions are four times more sensitive to climate change than that estimated in the latest IPCC report, which was only published in February 2022. The study follows the observation that, despite the pandemic stalling the world economy, methane emissions have reached new highs. Not because methane emissions have risen but because … [Read more...]
All estimates of the âcostâ of climate action should include the savings and benefits
Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC's Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur lâEnvironnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more...]
IPCC Report on Adaptation: a rapidly closing policy window for climate change action
We do not know how successful we will be at cutting emissions. So âadaptationâ is how we change our behaviour, economies, infrastructure and planning to cope with the consequences of climate change. The IPCCâs 6th and latest report looks at the scientific evidence of climate risk and the adaptation solutions being pursued around the world. Alexandre Magnan at IDDRI summarises the findings. It says that by 2100 climate risk will increase two- to … [Read more...]
Why was Nuclear side-lined at COP26?
James Conca is extremely disappointed that nuclear did not get a serious hearing by negotiators at COP26. Meanwhile in the "Green Zone" (for the general public), the World Nuclear Association had all of its members' applications to establish exhibits rejected. Why? If public opposition is a main obstacle, the nuclear industry should be given an opportunity to argue its case, explain how it is one of the safest energy sources available, and … [Read more...]
Climate change, âwind droughtsâ and the implications for Wind energy
What effect will changing trends in regional wind speeds have on the future of wind energy? Very large, considering that a small change in wind speed has a big effect on the power output of a turbine (itâs related to the cube of the wind speed). Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Bristol first looks at the âwind droughtâ experienced in Europe this year which saw SSE in the UK report a 32% drop in power from its renewable assets. Meanwhile, … [Read more...]
How multi-scenario âemulatorâ models are improving climate change projections
State-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the flow of energy, moisture and chemicals through the atmosphere, ocean and land surface in unprecedented detail. But the data processing is so demanding that each scenario takes considerable time and expense to run, needing powerful supercomputers and teams of scientists and programmers to produce the models and analyse the results. âEmulatorsâ are much simpler models that can run on a … [Read more...]
Eradicate global poverty, meet climate goals, by avoiding rich-world energy consumption patterns
There is concern that eradicating poverty in the global south means their growing wealth and energy consumption will make our climate targets too hard to meet. Here, Jarmo Kikstra and Narasimha Rao, writing for Carbon Brief, explain that the energy needed to eradicate poverty is compatible with climate goals, provided that policymakers focus on delivering decent living standards, and not copying the affluence and habits of rich countries. Most … [Read more...]
Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications
Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub review five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). They start by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This … [Read more...]
