State-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the flow of energy, moisture and chemicals through the atmosphere, ocean and land surface in unprecedented detail. But the data processing is so demanding that each scenario takes considerable time and expense to run, needing powerful supercomputers and teams of scientists and programmers to produce the models and analyse the results. âEmulatorsâ are much simpler models that can run on a … [Read more...]
Eradicate global poverty, meet climate goals, by avoiding rich-world energy consumption patterns
There is concern that eradicating poverty in the global south means their growing wealth and energy consumption will make our climate targets too hard to meet. Here, Jarmo Kikstra and Narasimha Rao, writing for Carbon Brief, explain that the energy needed to eradicate poverty is compatible with climate goals, provided that policymakers focus on delivering decent living standards, and not copying the affluence and habits of rich countries. Most … [Read more...]
Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications
Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub review five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). They start by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This … [Read more...]
18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree
A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors â these account … [Read more...]
The IEA explains its new âNet-Zero Emissions by 2050â roadmap
Today the IEA publishes its new special report, âNet Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sectorâ, its deepest dive so far into whatâs needed for a successful global transition. It analyses the options as well as the socio-economic, behavioural and environmental impacts they will have globally. Here, Laura Cozzi (Chief Energy Modeller) and Timur GĂŒl (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division) at the IEA summarise the key principles … [Read more...]
How the global âcarbon budgetâ is calculated, and predictions improved
What is the worldâs remaining âcarbon budgetâ? Or, how much more CO2 can the Earth take before we know weâll miss our 1.5oC (and 2oC) goals for 2050. Making those calculations is not easy and IPCC benchmark estimates inevitably include levels of uncertainty in the final answer. Kasia Tokarska at the ETH Zurich Institute and Damon Matthews at Concordia University summarise their research that narrows down that uncertainty, making life a little … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios wonât hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEAâs annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, itâs getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEAâs most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
Global âsectoralâ treaties, legally binding corporate targets can turn around emissions rise
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change started with a top-down legally binding Kyoto Protocol and ended up with a bottom-up âself-determinedâ voluntary Paris Agreement, says Chandra Bhushan. As a result, nobody has the tools to drive global collective action to combat climate change. The author says thatâs why emissions are at record levels. He recommends international âsectoralâ treaties to achieve real transition in energy, … [Read more...]
New tool to show whether companies’ climate strategy matches their public ambitions
By now weâre used to stats that show what would happen if everyone in the world had the same carbon footprint as a European, or an American, someone in China, or indeed anywhere. According to the consultancy right. based on science, they have now created a way of modelling the same projections, except for specific companies. The model also number-crunches a company's climate strategy to work out whether they are going to help or hinder the race … [Read more...]
Why we canât reverse climate change with negative emissions technologies
The United Nationâs panel on climate change said that technologies to remove CO2 will be necessary to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5oC. But these techniques are largely unproven, and the technical, economic and environmental barriers of negative emissions technologies (NETs) are very real, states Howard J. Herzog, Senior Research Engineer at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a leading expert in CO2 capture and storage. … [Read more...]
Europeans ‘not very worried about climate change’
The latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report is a wake-up call for the need to act quickly on greenhouse gas emissions. But research from the European Social Survey suggests European attitudes towards climate change could be hard to shift, says Ed Grover, senior communications officer at City, University of London. Courtesy of City, University of London. … [Read more...]
8 things you need to know about the IPCC 1.5ËC report
In its landmark report released today on global warming, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to stop global temperatures from rising by over 1.5ËC â but it is possible. The report makes it clear to governments and businesses that limiting warming to 1.5ËC is imperative, says Kelly Levin of World Resources Institute: âNow itâs time for them to step up to the challenge.â … [Read more...]
Dutch courtâs climate ruling may force other states to cut emissions â or else
States have a duty of care towards their citizens that the absence of a global climate treaty does not take away, argues Professor Arthur Petersen from University College London. A recent court ruling in the Netherlands sets a precedent for national judges to directly use climate science to find governments liable for inadequate action on climate change, he says. The ruling's biggest impact may be outside the Netherlands. … [Read more...]
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