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The history of evidence of CO2-driven climate change starts in the mid-1800s

May 23, 2023 by Marc Hudson

Marc Hudson at the University of Sussex gives us a fascinating review of the history of climate change science. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, experimental evidence that CO2 traps heat dates back to the mid-1800s. The first predictions of global warming caused by humans came in 1895. The big change in perception took place in 1953. Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass (an academic whose career also … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: anthropomorphic, CO2, emissions, fossils, industry, IPCC, Plass, warming

IPCC AR6 report reveals a bigger impact at lower temperatures than previously predicted: health, crops, species loss +more

April 14, 2023 by Charlotte Edmond

Published in March, the IPPC’s AR6 Synthesis Report on Climate Change updates its predictions of the effects of temperature rises. It starkly concludes that those temperature rises will have a bigger impact at lower temperatures than previously predicted. Charlotte Edmond, writing for the World Economic Forum, picks out five charts from the report to illustrate the point: the range of likely temperature rises; global map of change in temperature, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Environment Tagged With: AR6, Climate, crops, decarbonisation, emissions, Food, health, heat, humidity, IPCC, moisture, Paris2015, precipitation, report, soil, species, synthesis, temperature

IPCC’s latest AR6 synthesis report lacks urgency and realism. Its own numbers say so

April 11, 2023 by Kevin Anderson

Kevin Anderson at the University of Manchester explains his deep disappointment in the recently released and influential IPCC AR6 synthesis report. Even the mainstream media criticised the lack of urgency in the language. Anderson’s objections go further. He says the report’s own figures show net-zero must be reached by 2040, not the “early 2050s” as stated. Anderson goes on to criticise the modelling used as the standard, saying it is formulated … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: AR6, emissions, equity, IAM, IPCC, JustTransition, modelling, report, synthesis

New AI model predicts 1.5C temperature rise is likely in 2030s even if emissions decline

February 24, 2023 by Josie Garthwaite

A new artificial intelligence model is predicting that 2C warming is likely to occur and sooner than expected, even if current low-emissions strategies are successful, explains Josie Garthwaite at Stanford University. The Stanford-developed AI uses “neural network” learning from vast quantities of past data, predicting that the 1.5C threshold is likely to be crossed in the next 10 to 15 years. That’s regardless of how much greenhouse gas … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: AI, COP27, decarbonisation, emissions, IPCC, netzero, Paris2015, warming, weather

What does the “global carbon budget” mean? Have we got 9 years left?

November 24, 2022 by Piers Forster, Debbie Rosen, Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj

Piers Forster and Debbie Rosen at the University of Leeds and Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, writing for Carbon Brief, look at the carbon budget estimates of the Global Carbon Project and the IPCC, the methodology and the inevitable uncertainties. They compare it to their own latest report from the CONSTRAIN research project. Where the GCP and the IPCC estimate nine years left of carbon emissions at current emission … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: aerosols, CDR, emissions, GCP, IPCC, methane, methodology, policies, pollution, science, uncertainty

Global Wind Speeds: are they falling due to climate change?

October 14, 2022 by Jim Robbins

Last year, Europe experienced a “wind drought”, with wind speeds falling 15% in many regions, sometimes more. Deeper research shows speeds dropped gradually between 1978 and 2010, though rose again in the last decade. It’s difficult for the science to create a clear picture and predict long term trends. But the IPCC forecasts slowing winds for the coming decades, saying average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10% by 2100. Jim Robbins at … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Renewables Tagged With: Climate, electricity, EU, IPCC, power, research, speeds, temperature, US, wind

Methane emissions reach unexpected new highs. Is climate change causing a runaway effect?

July 11, 2022 by Simon Redfern

Simon Redfern at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore summarises his co-authored study that says methane emissions are four times more sensitive to climate change than that estimated in the latest IPCC report, which was only published in February 2022. The study follows the observation that, despite the pandemic stalling the world economy, methane emissions have reached new highs. Not because methane emissions have risen but because … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Environment, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: agriculture, emissions, gas, hydroxyl, IPCC, landfills, methane, removal, wildfires

All estimates of the ‘cost’ of climate action should include the savings and benefits

March 29, 2022 by Alexandre Köberle, Toon Vandyck, Céline Guivarch and Joeri Rogelj

Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC's Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Energy Outlooks Tagged With: agriculture, biodiversity, Climate, health, inequality, infrastructure, IPCC, modelling, productivity, scenarios, transition, wellbeing

IPCC Report on Adaptation: a rapidly closing policy window for climate change action

March 7, 2022 by Alexandre Magnan

We do not know how successful we will be at cutting emissions. So “adaptation” is how we change our behaviour, economies, infrastructure and planning to cope with the consequences of climate change. The IPCC’s 6th and latest report looks at the scientific evidence of climate risk and the adaptation solutions being pursued around the world. Alexandre Magnan at IDDRI summarises the findings. It says that by 2100 climate risk will increase two- to … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: adaptation, AR6, behaviour, infrastructure, IPCC, policy, warming

Why was Nuclear side-lined at COP26?

November 16, 2021 by James Conca

James Conca is extremely disappointed that nuclear did not get a serious hearing by negotiators at COP26. Meanwhile in the "Green Zone" (for the general public), the World Nuclear Association had all of its members' applications to establish exhibits rejected. Why? If public opposition is a main obstacle, the nuclear industry should be given an opportunity to argue its case, explain how it is one of the safest energy sources available, and … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Nuclear Tagged With: China, COP26, France, Fukushima, IPCC, Kerry, Macron, Nuclear, safety, US

Climate change, “wind droughts” and the implications for Wind energy

November 15, 2021 by Hannah Bloomfield

What effect will changing trends in regional wind speeds have on the future of wind energy? Very large, considering that a small change in wind speed has a big effect on the power output of a turbine (it’s related to the cube of the wind speed). Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Bristol first looks at the “wind drought” experienced in Europe this year which saw SSE in the UK report a 32% drop in power from its renewable assets. Meanwhile, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Renewables Tagged With: drought, EU, Europe, IPCC, modelling, scenarios, speeds, UK, wind

How multi-scenario ‘emulator’ models are improving climate change projections

October 1, 2021 by Chris Smith

State-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the flow of energy, moisture and chemicals through the atmosphere, ocean and land surface in unprecedented detail. But the data processing is so demanding that each scenario takes considerable time and expense to run, needing powerful supercomputers and teams of scientists and programmers to produce the models and analyse the results. “Emulators” are much simpler models that can run on a … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: AR6, atmosphere, emulators, ESM, IPCC, modelling, predictions, scenarios, temperature

Eradicate global poverty, meet climate goals, by avoiding rich-world energy consumption patterns

September 10, 2021 by Jarmo Kikstra and Narasimha Rao

There is concern that eradicating poverty in the global south means their growing wealth and energy consumption will make our climate targets too hard to meet. Here, Jarmo Kikstra and Narasimha Rao, writing for Carbon Brief, explain that the energy needed to eradicate poverty is compatible with climate goals, provided that policymakers focus on delivering decent living standards, and not copying the affluence and habits of rich countries. Most … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: Africa, Asia, forecasts, GDP, growth, HDI, healthcare, housing, IPCC, LatinAmerica, nutrition, poverty, scenarios, transport

Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications

July 20, 2021 by Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt

Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss and Hendrik Schuldt at cr.hub review five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). They start by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Carbon Capture, Energy Tagged With: BECCS, CCS, CCUS, CDR, CO2, coal, FitFor55, gas, IEA, IPCC, McKinsey, NGFS, scenarios

18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree

May 21, 2021 by Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal

A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors – these account … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Energy Outlooks, Policies Tagged With: behaviour, bioenergy, biomass, CCS, CCUS, CDR, China, emissions, EU, EVs, hydrogen, IEA, India, IPCC, power, renewables, US

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Most read this week

  • Financing Renewable Hydrogen globally: ramp up to 2030 only needs $150bn/year by Dolf Gielen | posted on May 26, 2023
  • Five charts on the Energy Transition: the 2020s is the decade of maximum disruption. By 2030 the endgame will be clear by Sam Butler-Sloss | posted on May 25, 2023
  • Making Hydrogen direct from seawater using double-membrane electrolysis by David Krause | posted on May 24, 2023
  • 10 Carbon Capture methods compared: costs, scalability, permanence, cleanness by Ella Adlen | posted on November 11, 2019
  • Understanding the new EU ETS (Part 2): Buildings, Road Transport, Fuels. And how the revenues will be spent by Simon Göss | posted on February 6, 2023
  • Micro-nuclear reactors: up to 20MW, portable, safer by Christina Nunez | posted on April 22, 2021
  • Oil & Gas can meet 2030 net-zero target for only $600bn, quickly recouped. But it’s still not happening, warns IEA by IEA | posted on May 22, 2023
  • Gravity Batteries: any nation can do it at scale using rocks by Simon Read | posted on July 27, 2022
  • The history of evidence of CO2-driven climate change starts in the mid-1800s by Marc Hudson | posted on May 23, 2023
  • The 10 big problems with simply replacing fossil cars with electric by Schalk Cloete | posted on December 6, 2021
  • EU Energy Outlook to 2060: how will power prices and revenues develop for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more by Alex Schmitt | posted on December 6, 2022
  • What’s best for Hydrogen transport: ammonia, liquid hydrogen, LOHC or pipelines? by Herib Blanco | posted on May 5, 2022
  • Enhanced Weathering: crushed rocks spread on farmland can capture billions of tons of CO2/year by Benjamin Houlton | posted on July 21, 2020
  • Hydrogen production in 2050: how much water will 74EJ need? by Herib Blanco | posted on July 22, 2021
  • U.S. EPA: new rules proposed for cutting Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plant emissions by Cy McGeady | posted on May 30, 2023
  • Why hydrogen fuel cell cars are not competitive — from a hydrogen fuel cell expert by Zachary Shahan | posted on June 17, 2016
  • Modelling green Ammonia and Methanol in 2050. It will be expensive by Schalk Cloete | posted on September 9, 2022
  • EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework: new rules to turn greenwashing into genuine removals by Simon Göss | posted on May 16, 2023
  • China should comfortably meet its 2030 Renewables target. But its emissions? by Simon Göss | posted on February 21, 2022
  • Germany: will the end of feed-in tariffs mean the end of citizens-as-energy-producers by Isabel Sutton | posted on June 3, 2021

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      Recent Posts

      Perovskite: abundant, cheap, printable solar cells demonstrated, ready to generate power

      U.S. EPA: new rules proposed for cutting Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plant emissions

      Financing Renewable Hydrogen globally: ramp up to 2030 only needs $150bn/year

      Five charts on the Energy Transition: the 2020s is the decade of maximum disruption. By 2030 the endgame will be clear

      Making Hydrogen direct from seawater using double-membrane electrolysis

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