The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 is predicting that fossil fuels will peak in the next five years, “thanks to” Russia’s war and the resultant energy crisis. National climate promises are being turned into policies that improve energy security, which mostly means reducing dependence on gas. That means global energy demand growth to 2030 will “almost entirely” be met by renewables. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief takes an in-depth look at the … [Read more...]
Interpreting the Paris Agreement: the 1.5C and 2C targets are not two different options
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti at Humboldt University of Berlin, writing for Carbon Brief, want to clear up confusion over the 1.5C and 2C pathways. Their concern is that some people are interpreting the Paris Agreement’s wording as two separate targets, one simply better than the other. But they should not be seen as two different options. The objective of “well below 2C” must be seen by modellers and policy-makers as a clear … [Read more...]
Latest U.S. modelling shows Battery Storage can support an 80% Renewables grid by 2050
NREL’s latest Storage Futures Study concludes that battery storage should be able to support an 80% renewables grid mix in the U.S. by 2050. Madeline Geocaris at NREL explains how they modelled hundreds of future scenarios to accurately represent the value of diurnal (<12 hours) battery energy storage. The high-storage scenarios made different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas. 15 storage … [Read more...]
All estimates of the ‘cost’ of climate action should include the savings and benefits
Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC's Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more...]
Germany’s electrification ambitions: TSOs scenario for 91% Renewables by 2045
The German TSOs submitted in January scenarios for their grid to 2037, making projections for increasing electrification. In addition, and for the first time, they included an ambitious and long term scenario to 2045. By pure chance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s response – to consider a reduction in its serious dependence on Russian energy imports – should make eyes turn sharply towards that 2045 scenario. Simon Göss at cr.hub, … [Read more...]
Lifting 3.6bn people out of poverty would raise global emissions by 18%
One criticism of the energy transition is that efforts made by the rich world will be negated by the rise in wealth and consumption in the developing world. A new study puts figures on that expected increase in emissions. Eradicating all “extreme poverty” – by raising hundreds of millions above the US$1.90 per day threshold – would drive up global carbon emissions by less than 1%. Lifting 3.6 billion people over the poverty line of US$5.50 per … [Read more...]
Open-source modelling for the energy transition and climate change
Modelling tools are becoming increasingly important to policy makers for creating transition pathways. More detail is required as the pace of change accelerates. Yet complexity is increasing as new technologies and solutions come online. And those models are needed at the local level, not just the national and global. It’s why the EU is funding, through Horizon 2020, a range of projects to not only make those tools a success, but make them freely … [Read more...]
Our Hydrogen future: 27 authors imagine the world in 2030-2050
Here’s something very different for our readers today, and an opportunity for you to register for our Webinar and Q&A on Wednesday Feb 16th at 09:00 CET (register here). It’s to mark the book launch of “Touching Hydrogen Future”, where 27 energy experts from around the world have written a chapter each. They are fictional accounts of what our world could like in the near future. The countries covered are the Netherlands (2029), Denmark … [Read more...]
Politicians need net-zero scenarios that include socio-economic obstacles and solutions
Standard net-zero scenario modelling carefully analyses the possible impacts of technological solutions and their obstacles. What they’re missing is the detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of these scenarios on the lives of citizens. That means jobs, incomes, energy bills, air quality, and regional economic performance. In other words, the politics on the ground. Misunderstood, and perfectly sensible pathways will come up against … [Read more...]
Climate change, “wind droughts” and the implications for Wind energy
What effect will changing trends in regional wind speeds have on the future of wind energy? Very large, considering that a small change in wind speed has a big effect on the power output of a turbine (it’s related to the cube of the wind speed). Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Bristol first looks at the “wind drought” experienced in Europe this year which saw SSE in the UK report a 32% drop in power from its renewable assets. Meanwhile, … [Read more...]
Corporations, Cities, Financial Institutions: can private collective action plug the global emissions gap?
Non-state actors - corporations, cities, and financial institutions – are making their own impact on emissions reductions. We don’t just have to rely on governments, explain James Newcomb, Jun Ukita Shepard and Laurens Speelman at RMI. Case studies of harnessing private collective action already exist, and they are significant. Take Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). In the U.S., corporates ramped up annual renewables procurements from 0.1 GW to … [Read more...]
IEA WEO 2021 message to COP26: 40% of clean energy goals will cut costs
The IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook was published on Wednesday. This year’s WEO-2021 is released earlier than usual to inform COP26 and, for the first time, is available for free to ensure the widest possible audience. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief offers his summary of the 386-page report, quoting relevant numbers and charts. He first points to the new scenario, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE), as the IEA’s recognition that this is what … [Read more...]
How multi-scenario ‘emulator’ models are improving climate change projections
State-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the flow of energy, moisture and chemicals through the atmosphere, ocean and land surface in unprecedented detail. But the data processing is so demanding that each scenario takes considerable time and expense to run, needing powerful supercomputers and teams of scientists and programmers to produce the models and analyse the results. “Emulators” are much simpler models that can run on a … [Read more...]
How much Hydrogen will the German Gas Network have?
What will be the scale and design of Germany’s hydrogen roll-out? Different scenarios are coming to wildly different conclusions. Simon Göss at cr.hub, writing for Energy Brainpool, looks at several, including the dena-TM95 scenario of the German transmission system operators for gas (FNB Gas) where gas consumption rises, and the NECP-KSP 87.5 scenario of the German Ministry for Economic Affairs where gas consumption falls. The possible hydrogen … [Read more...]
Eradicate global poverty, meet climate goals, by avoiding rich-world energy consumption patterns
There is concern that eradicating poverty in the global south means their growing wealth and energy consumption will make our climate targets too hard to meet. Here, Jarmo Kikstra and Narasimha Rao, writing for Carbon Brief, explain that the energy needed to eradicate poverty is compatible with climate goals, provided that policymakers focus on delivering decent living standards, and not copying the affluence and habits of rich countries. Most … [Read more...]
