Energy Post

Daily reports on the European and Global energy transition

Oil & Gas can meet 2030 net-zero target for only $600bn, quickly recouped. But it’s still not happening, warns IEA

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The IEA summarises its 33-page report “Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions”. The IEA says the oil and gas sector needs ÂŁ600bn up front to meet its 2030 target of a 60% reduction in emissions. That’s only 15% of the sector’s record 2022 energy-crisis windfall income. A small price increase and savings should recoup that money “quickly”, says the IEA. The IEA not only maps a way to limit the global average temperature rise … [Read more...]

Global “explosive” growth means 1 in 3 new cars will be electric by 2030. But SUV emissions could wipe out those gains

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More than a third of all new vehicles sold globally in 2030 will be electric, according to the IEA. That’s a doubling of its prediction made only two years ago. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the report. The IEA describes the growth as “explosive”: from just 1% of global car sales in 2017, to 14% last year, and now 18% expected by the end of 2023. China has consistently dominated those sales while new policies in the U.S. and EU are … [Read more...]

EU: data shows Russia–Ukraine war has not increased Coal and emissions. It’s quite the opposite

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The Russian gas crisis has not resulted in the return of coal and high emissions in Europe, says Lauri Myllyvirta at CREA. He presents the figures that show quite the opposite. Coal returned, as expected, with the post-Covid rebound, but peaked in September 2022 below its pre-Covid level, and has been falling since along with emissions. Meanwhile, high gas prices caused by Russia’s cut-off has kept gas demand low and, more importantly, driven the … [Read more...]

Heating Households and Buildings: Heat Pumps will be up to three times cheaper than Green Hydrogen

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A new study concludes that heating from 100% green-hydrogen would be up to three times more expensive than one based on 100% electrification of buildings with heat pumps. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the findings, who says it’s yet more evidence to push back against the voices of politicians and fossil-fuel companies wanting to see hydrogen in the household and buildings heating mix (for example, the UK is planning a “hydrogen … [Read more...]

Green Hydrogen’s 6,000-fold scale-up by 2050 must far exceed Wind and Solar’s. Is it possible?

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To scale “green” hydrogen to make its contribution to limiting warming to 1.5C, electrolyser capacity needs to grow 6,000-fold by 2050 from today’s levels of 600MW, according to the IEA’s Net-Zero emissions by 2050 scenario. Adrian Odenweller and Falko Ueckerdt at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, writing for Carbon Brief, summarise their study that concludes even if electrolyser capacity grows as quickly as wind and solar, it is … [Read more...]

Virtual Power Plants: efficiently networked households won’t need new expensive generation

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Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are the next new innovation that can change the landscape of the global energy transition in our favour, cheaply and fast, explain Liza Martin and Kevin Brehm at RMI. Essentially, they link and aggregate hundreds of thousands of households and businesses to manage their electrical devices. Their thermostats, EVs, appliances, batteries, and rooftop solar arrays are coordinated to ensure loads, charging and discharging … [Read more...]

How to sell Heat Pumps to the public in Europe

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In EU households, 62.8% of energy consumption is for space heating, and another 15.1% for water heating, mostly powered by fossil fuels. Heating and cooling is responsible for 52% of final energy demand in Europe. So, with REPowerEU, the EU has once again strengthened support for heat pumps to achieve energy independence and climate goals. Heat pump sales in Europe grew by an unprecedented 34% in 2021, thanks to a total 2.18m heat pump units … [Read more...]

Event Summary: Building GW-scale Offshore Wind in the Baltic Sea

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Here we provide a written summary of the panel discussion “Wind of Change or Change of Wind? The future of Baltic Sea offshore investments” held on 12th September 2022 in Brussels. It’s a full summary of the 90 minute discussion (including audience questions), but it begins conveniently with a summary of the highlights. The Baltic Sea has the potential to develop over 90 GW of offshore wind capacity. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has delivered … [Read more...]

Modelling green Ammonia and Methanol in 2050. It will be expensive

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Schalk Cloete starts by explaining that it is unrealistic to expect clean electrification to carry the main burden of energy supply. Even a fast roll out will be constrained by a range of infrastructure and cost limitations. Hence our continued dependence on fuels, with their high energy density and ease of transport. Those fuels will have to be made clean, so he summarises his co-authored papers that model the cost of green and blue ammonia and … [Read more...]

EVs vs Biofuels: new study looks at ethanol’s impact on agricultural land use, food prices, emissions

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For transport, biofuels have lower emissions than gasoline/petrol, but EVs will have the lowest emissions of all. Hence the opposition to those biofuels, along with objections to the valuable cropland used to make the ethanol. But the overall advantage depends on the speed of transition to EVs charged with clean electricity. Now, a calculation has been made of the amount of agricultural land preserved for global food production - or kept as … [Read more...]

Grid Distribution Systems: access to usage data is uncovering the optimal design for future electrification

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The more efficient a distribution grid is, the less likely other potential supply bottlenecks (from lithium for batteries to trained electricians) will slow the transition to greater and greater electrification. State-of-the-art modelling of future grids is already happening, but the robust modelling of the distribution system is conspicuously missing because good data are notoriously hard to find, says Meredith Fowlie at UC Berkeley’s Energy … [Read more...]

Manifesto: fit-for-purpose flexible grids for the clean electrification of Europe

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The integration of new clean generation sources on top of the increase in electrification of industry, e-mobility, and heating and cooling means grid investment must be made a priority. Anything else will leave deployment-ready solutions waiting, slowing down the transition. The backdrop is that over one third of the EU’s grids are already more than 40 years old. Eurelectric has produced a manifesto, “Connecting The Dots”, that estimates … [Read more...]

EU Heat Pumps: warnings against “one size fits all” policies

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The EU is aiming for the installation of 50 million heat pumps by 2030, equating to annual growth of 16%, reaching one third of the total 150 million boiler installations in the bloc. Helen Farrell reviews these ambitious targets and the policies that are driving them, and turns to a report by RAP to identify the weaknesses in the plan and how it can be improved. The main danger is a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Different countries have … [Read more...]

If most truck journeys are less than 300 miles the E-Truck revolution can happen now

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What proportion of trucks today could go electric? That’s the question Emily Porter at RMI has asked for California and New York. The answer is 65% of medium-duty trucks and 49% of heavy-duty trucks. Those are very encouragingly high numbers. RMI’s definition of “electrifiable” is if they travel fewer than 300 miles between trips to their home bases. The study gathered real data on how freight trucks are driven today. Clearly, a large number of … [Read more...]

Wellbeing peaks at just 75GJ per capita: a reachable target for poorer nations to rise to (and rich ones to fall to)

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Energy consumption is strongly linked to health and wellbeing, in particular life expectancy, infant mortality, happiness, food supply, access to basic sanitation services and access to electricity. But as Josie Garthwaite at Stanford University explains, new research is saying that those improvements cease above a certain number of gigajoules per person per year. Knowing that number will make understanding and setting targets much easier. For a … [Read more...]