Energy and climate experts as well as national and EU parliamentarians are lining up to press their governments to withdraw from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) if insufficient progress is made in its modernisation. Their main argument is that it gives protection to fossil investments in a world where policies are changing in order to constrain or phase them out. Here, Frank Umbach at EUCERS sternly warns against abandoning the ECT. The treaty … [Read more...]
Five key metrics investors need to steer Oil and Gas firms into decarbonisation
If the oil and gas industry won’t commit to meaningful strategies and milestones to decarbonise, investors must make them, say Ben Ratner at the Environmental Defense Fund and Erin Blanton at Columbia University. Already, Covid has shown how vulnerable the sector is to unexpected change. If the sector refuses to factor in rising decarbonisation ambitions and policies across the globe that vulnerability will continue for decades. At the same time, … [Read more...]
A pathway for profitable CCS in California
A study from the energy departments of Stanford University, from where Kara Glenwright writes, lays out a pathway for California to capture and store up to 60 Mt (million tonnes) of CO2 a year. 76 site locations have been identified where work could start immediately to store 20 Mt/yr profitably under the existing low carbon rules. But first a raft of clarifications on the laws is needed, showing that the success of CCS doesn’t just depend on the … [Read more...]
Chinese energy institutes present new net-zero scenarios for 2050
It was just one sentence, in September, from China’s President Xi Jinping: “We aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.” Already, leading Chinese energy institutes have presented two scenarios that lay out what needs to be done to meet that goal. Writing for Carbon Brief, Lauri Myllyvirta reviews the plans. Both target over 85% of all energy and more than 90% of electricity coming from non-fossil … [Read more...]
WEO 2020 means updated price predictions to 2040: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewables, Power
The combined effect of the global lockdown, more ambitious climate policies and the rise of renewables will have a significant effect on European power prices up to 2040, as well as the sales revenues of renewable energies. Carlos Perez-Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool uses their Power2Sim model to look at the data in the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook 2020 and make quantitative forecasts. The pandemic has caused structural distortions to the … [Read more...]
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2020 at a glance
This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This year’s WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated “Stated Policies Scenario” (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new “Delayed Recovery Scenario” (DRS: due to Covid), an updated “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS: what’s needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new “Net Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
Europe’s 55% emissions cut by 2030: proposed target means even faster coal exit
The EC is proposing a target emissions reduction of 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, instead of the previously agreed 40% (which the EU is on course to surpass). The main tool for achieving it will be the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Prices for allowances will rise, making coal increasingly uncompetitive. Sören Amelang, Kerstine Appunn and Julian Wettengel at CLEW talked to a number of experts who say the new target implies a near total … [Read more...]
Tesla’s BEVs vs. Toyota’s hybrids: the battle for the future of low emission cars
Which car firm will dominate the future? Tesla and its BEVs or Toyota with its hybrids? Schalk Cloete looks at the cost reductions coming down the line. He says that the hybrids have many more improvements on the way, whereas in terms of performance and efficiency the BEVs are already reaching their peak. Though further and considerable progress in battery technology is coming, it will benefit both. For city driving both will rely on battery … [Read more...]
BP Outlook 2020: “peak oil” has already happened
BP’s latest Outlook predicts – for the first time - that oil saw its peak in 2019. In each of BP’s Outlooks, published annually since 2011, they have revised their predictions for the global energy landscape to 2050 as new data comes in. The growth of clean energy and the changing shape of climate policies have seen each successive forecast increase the share of renewables at the expense of fossil fuels. This year even gas has seen its prospects … [Read more...]
Energy Charter Treaty: reform will only happen when energy ministers get involved
Negotiations are underway for the reform of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), an international trade agreement under fire from former Energy Charter executives, members of the European Parliament, and NGOs. Created at the end of the cold war, it was designed to protect cross-border energy investments – in a fossil fuel world – from political risk. Clare Taylor quotes the critics who say it no longer makes sense for the treaty to protect oil and … [Read more...]
BP’s world energy review: 2019 saw clean electricity match coal
Simon Evans at Carbon Brief summarises BP’s 69th edition of its influential annual statistical review of world energy, looking at 2019. Overall, total energy demand rose, though slower than usual. Renewables were the largest source of new energy, but were closely followed by oil and gas. Coal use dropped again, the fourth drop in six years, thanks to historic declines in the EU and the US. But continued growth in SE Asia, China and India leaves … [Read more...]
The PAC Scenario: net-zero by 2040 to meet Europe’s Paris goals
The EU is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement obligations on emissions and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. CAN Europe and the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) present their Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario, designed to do just that. It’s been created through the careful analysis of contributions from more than 150 stakeholders including NGOs, scientists, industry and grid operators. Jörg Mühlenhoff at CAN Europe … [Read more...]
IEA projections 2020: energy demand plunges but Renewables still grow at Gas, Coal’s expense
The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
Bounceback or Recession? Modelling the impact on electricity prices to 2025
Carlos Perez Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool models three scenarios to understand the factors that are having the biggest impact on – and thereby make predictions for - electricity prices, revenues, energy source merit order, and emissions in the EU. Other parameters in the scope of their analysis include oil prices, gas prices, commodities markets, carbon taxes, and the EUA/emissions market. Clearly, collapsing prices are profoundly distorting … [Read more...]
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