The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
Cost vs Resilience: Europe’s sourcing strategy will shape the regional Hydrogen economy
The upcoming EU Hydrogen Bank pilot auction and trilogue discussions are focussing minds on the future of hydrogen. Jonas Lotze and Massimo Moser at TransnetBW and Janina Erb, Roman Flatau, Felix Greven and Max Labmayr at d-fine present the results of their modelling of two hydrogen sourcing scenarios: "Global Market" (GM) where the import of hydrogen into Europe is unrestricted, and "Energy Resilient Europe" (ERE) where almost all hydrogen is … [Read more...]
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now building more Renewables, less Coal
Energy has always made up the majority of investments and construction deals signed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Until very recently these investments were dominated by fossil fuel projects. But in the first half of this year, over 40% of BRI energy projects announced were wind and solar, with 22% each for gas and oil, and zero for coal projects. The reasons include China’s stated commitment to clean energy, avoiding the risk … [Read more...]
Fossil producer UAE to host COP28: what are Gulf states doing to decarbonise?
COP28 in November is being hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major oil and gas producer. The COP President will be Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, one of the world’s biggest oil companies. It’s attracted heavy criticism from many quarters. Robin Mills at the Center on Global Energy Policy reviews the contradictions inherent in a leading fossil producing nation hosting the world’s most important decarbonisation forum. The Gulf states … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Germany to ramp up the decarbonisation of Buildings Heating from Jan 1st 2024. How?
Decarbonising heating is a major challenge for any country. Germany’s Building Energy Act (GEG) means that from 2024 every newly installed heating system, in new or existing buildings, must operate with a minimum of 65% renewable energy. Concerns over the costs to customers (installing new and expensive systems, or paying a penalty for fossil heating) has led to intense debates, hence the new law includes a range of subsidies, bonuses, discounted … [Read more...]
Carbon Capture rates of 60% sound impressive. But rising carbon prices could still make you commercially unviable
Mainstream scenarios state the unavoidable need for continued use of fossils through to 2050. For the world to stay within its carbon budget, that means the unavoidable need for carbon capture and plugging “fugitive” leaks. Chris Bataille at the Center on Global Energy Policy flags up the danger that new CCS projects with seemingly impressive capture rates of up to 60% may nevertheless become commercially unviable as carbon prices rise: that … [Read more...]
Russia’s oil export revenue rebounded in March–April. Why aren’t the EU, U.S. and partners enforcing the price cap?
The Price Cap Coalition (PCC) - composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the UK, and the U.S. – are failing to either enforce or lower the cap on Russian oil exports as promised, says a report summarised here from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Had it done so, Russian revenues could have been slashed by €22bn (37%) since December by lowering the price cap for crude oil to $30/barrel and revising the caps for oil … [Read more...]
Nearly half of national climate pledges (NDCs) intend to keep extracting fossil fuels
“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are a nation’s published plans to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Natalie Jones at the IISD, writing for Carbon Brief, summarises her co-authored study that reviews the fossil fuel production element of those NDCs. Nations are obliged to update their NDCs every five years, to give more detail. That added detail is a cause for concern in the latest round of NDCs: there is an … [Read more...]
Germany’s proposed de facto ban on new fossil boilers from 2024 meets fierce resistance
Like many nations, Germany is struggling to find a way to replace fossil fuel-powered boilers in millions of homes and buildings with heat pumps and other cleaner alternatives. Heating accounts for a whopping 15% of the country’s emissions. As Sören Amelang at CLEW explains, the up-front cost of a new clean heater can be double that of existing mass-produced fossil equivalent, so home owners are resistant. In 2022, two thirds of all new heating … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas can meet 2030 net-zero target for only $600bn, quickly recouped. But it’s still not happening, warns IEA
The IEA summarises its 33-page report “Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions”. The IEA says the oil and gas sector needs £600bn up front to meet its 2030 target of a 60% reduction in emissions. That’s only 15% of the sector’s record 2022 energy-crisis windfall income. A small price increase and savings should recoup that money “quickly”, says the IEA. The IEA not only maps a way to limit the global average temperature rise … [Read more...]
Global “explosive” growth means 1 in 3 new cars will be electric by 2030. But SUV emissions could wipe out those gains
More than a third of all new vehicles sold globally in 2030 will be electric, according to the IEA. That’s a doubling of its prediction made only two years ago. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the report. The IEA describes the growth as “explosive”: from just 1% of global car sales in 2017, to 14% last year, and now 18% expected by the end of 2023. China has consistently dominated those sales while new policies in the U.S. and EU are … [Read more...]
Falling oil prices are defying the forecasters. Expect to be surprised for the rest of the year
The worst expectations for oil prices never materialised, thank goodness. In mid-March a year ago Brent reached $114 and WTI $103 a barrel. By the same time this year it was $72 and $66 respectively. That’s despite no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the trigger to the 2022 price escalation and global crisis. Carole Nakhle at the University of Surrey explains how today’s forecasts are similarly uncertain. She points at conflicting … [Read more...]
The U.S. is moving faster than the EU on Methane regulations. Why?
Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies takes a deep dive into U.S. and EU progress on regulating methane emissions. It’s vitally important because methane has more than 80 times the warming potential of CO2 in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. In his assessment, Cahill explains why the U.S. is likely to move much faster than the EU. Unlike the U.S., the EU is a big importer of gas so needs its rules complied with by … [Read more...]
Credit Rating Agencies: a guide to pricing in long-term climate risks
Nobody wants share, stock and bond prices to fall off a cliff unexpectedly. But while Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) continue to evaluate based on short-term policy changes and market forces without specifically accounting for climate risks, that’s what could happen. IEEFA have published their guides to how CRAs can adapt – without throwing out – their existing models to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risks. Hazel … [Read more...]
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