Although fossil fuels are being replaced by clean energy they are not going away. Even coal is not in decline, it’s just peaked globally: declining in mature economies, still rising in developing ones. Henning Gloystein at the Eurasia Group, writing for the Atlantic Council, asks to what extent oil will follow coal. Oil consumption is still growing – 1% this year - though at a much slower rate than before. As with coal, a re-focus onto cleaner … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trump’s intention to further deregulate methane emissions. That’s because they’ve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
The rapid liberalisation of China’s domestic gas market
China’s coal-to-gas ambitions are driving big changes to its internal gas markets, says a report “China’s Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Market” by the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate, authored by Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe. To cope with a doubling of gas demand by 2030, market reforms are liberalising the downstream gas market. Nobody wants a repeat of the winter shortages of 2017-18. And air … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
Calculating the effect of $50/tonne CO2 on energy prices
Despite much debate, governments are hesitant to raise – or even impose – carbon pricing, worried about the direct impact it will have on businesses and consumers.To help understand its effect Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas has crunched the numbers of a $50/tonne CO2 price, very expensive by today’s standards. He’s calculated the actual price increases on a gallon of petrol/gasoline, gas- and coal-fired generation, and natural … [Read more...]
Private finance must invest in carbon asset retirement, not just clean energy
The Climate Finance Leadership Initiative (CFLI) is laying out concrete plans for the private sector to finance the low-carbon transition, say Tyeler Matsuo and Lucy Kessler of Rocky Mountain Institute. One important insight of their new report “Financing the Low-Carbon Future” is that it’s not enough to back clean energy. Climate finance also needs to accelerate the retirement and transformation of the carbon assets that are responsible for 78% … [Read more...]
UN climate summit: which nations are leading, which failing
Ahead of the UN climate summit in New York on September 23rd, where countries are expected to set themselves more ambitious targets and roadmaps than they did in Paris in 2015, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics looks at the emissions league table. There are some surprises at the top: Ethiopia, Morocco and India, though he points out being at the top can still be a long way from doing enough to meet the 1.5℃ goal. At the bottom are Australia, the … [Read more...]
UK fracking earthquakes: why the world’s “toughest” safety rules failed to predict them
In August this year Lancashire experienced the largest fracking-induced earthquake recorded in the UK. Fracking was suspended. Legislators discussed a complete ban. As a result, serious questions are being asked about the effectiveness of the safety regulations, given the operating company, Cuadrilla, predicted there was a “low-likelihood” of such events occurring. And given the UK’s “traffic light system” (TLS) is the most stringent TLS in the … [Read more...]
Lightweight Gasoline Cars: a necessary 30-year stop gap?
We should all be driving electric vehicles. But we have to wait for renewable electric grid capacity to support them all, charging points everywhere, and enough new batteries to be manufactured and put in all the new, affordable BEVs. And we’re running out of time. An interim solution has come from a study by MIT and Ford. David Chandler, writing for MIT, explains the study, which says that an interim solution – for certain regions - is … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. It’s what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
$400bn in global fossil fuel consumption subsidies, twice that for renewables
At over $400bn in 2018, global fossil fuel consumption subsidies are more than double those for renewables. That makes sense while governments worldwide use energy subsidies to help poor consumers, and clean energy still makes up a smaller proportion of the global energy mix. But it makes the transition harder: cheaper fossil energy means more is consumed, and it’ll take longer for clean energy to compete it away. The IEA’s WEO Energy Analysts … [Read more...]
New gas-to-methanol technology OxE could end oil well “flaring”
Oil wells also release natural gas. But it’s burnt off on site whenever the economics of collecting and piping it don’t add up (gas can’t use the existing petroleum infrastructure). What if it could be converted into methanol, says Nichole Liebov at the University of Virginia. She describes a new process called oxyesterification (OxE) that converts methane (the main constituent of natural gas) into methanol cost effectively at low temperatures … [Read more...]
IEA: Global energy investment stabilises at $1.8tn after 3 years of decline
Three consecutive years of declining global energy investment has ended. But it’s not risen, just stabilised at $1.8tn, according to the IEA’s latest report World Energy Investment 2019. To meet the Paris targets investment in efficiency needs to rise substantially, and double by 2030 for renewables: they have stalled for both. To meet soaring global energy demand oil and gas investments need to rise too. That demand is seeing cheap coal still … [Read more...]
UK oil & gas keeps rising. Clean Energy blueprint can reverse it
In the UK the £2.3bn (=$2.9bn / €2.6bn) in new oil and gas subsidies introduced since 2014 will state-fund the addition of twice as much carbon as its coal phaseout saves, says a new report “Sea Change: Climate Emergency, Jobs and Managing the Phase-out of UK Oil and Gas Extraction”. Can the UK call itself a climate leader if its existing policies push it over its emissions limits? It can, if you consider this: the UK took 16 years to become the … [Read more...]
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