The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
Hydrogen, CCS, and more: without new clean energy technologies we cannot hit our 2050 emissions targets
The flagship 400-page report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, is another salvo from the IEA to concentrate the minds of the world on new technologies and their roll out. That’s because transforming electrification and the power sector alone, where most of the progress is happening, will only get us one-third of the way to net-zero emissions by 2050. The IEA has analysed over 800 new technology options. The most important categories – … [Read more...]
Little progress decarbonising Industry. Renewables can be the answer
The decarbonisation of heavy industry is making little progress. There are two main reasons. Firstly, there are no easy technology wins. Efficiency and carbon capture have been the favoured options. But efficiency gains have their limits, and carbon capture is still proving very expensive. Secondly, governments don’t want their home industries to lose competitiveness incurring costs reducing emissions. Dolf Gielen and Paul Durrant at IRENA say a … [Read more...]
Optimising Cyanobacteria for carbon fixation and biofuels
The landscape can be changed for energy transition technologies by research breakthroughs, and that includes work on bacteria and proteins. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners have been running experiments on cyanobacteria. These single-cell organisms, also using photosynthesis, fix carbon dioxide twice as efficiently as plants. They grow rapidly, doubling their numbers in three hours. The first step is to understand … [Read more...]
Allam Cycle carbon capture gas plants: 11% more efficient, all CO2 captured
Globally, carbon capture is making precious little progress. Is the Allam Cycle natural gas power plant an important step forward? David Yellen at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center explains that, according to its designers, its energy conversion efficiency is 59%, 11% more than a standard combined-cycle gas turbine plant that’s carbon capture-equipped. It also captures 100% of the CO2, 10% more than the standard. NET Power plans to bring … [Read more...]
Promises of future tech make hitting the 2°C target harder: a history
Writing for Carbon Brief, Duncan McLaren at Lancaster University runs through the history of climate negotiations to show that, over “five phases”, the continuous overhauling of models and target-setting have always resulted in promises to reverse emissions sometime in the future, a poor substitute for the real job of cutting emissions now. His main criticism is aimed at future carbon capture (CCS, BECCS) and net-zero-by-2050 policies: anything … [Read more...]
Germany must put CCS back on the table, says Merkel
Carbon Capture has not been popular in Germany. The public are largely opposed, political parties are split, and Federal States are not approving new projects. Germany has only four operations, and only one has injected anything (not much) into the ground. Now Chancellor Merkel wants it back on the table, along with a public debate. Julian Wettengel at Clean Energy Wire runs through the reasons for the opposition (an excuse to keep coal plants … [Read more...]
Norway’s “Northern Lights” project: creating the CCS business model
Northern Lights, a carbon capture and storage (CCS) project backed by the Norwegian government, is drilling test wells in the North Sea to find suitable places to store CO2. Project partners include Shell and Total, and others are joining them. CO2 will be shipped to an onshore terminal from which it is piped to the subsea wells. Once established, the plan is for other European countries to send their CO2 too. The project will also create the … [Read more...]
Gas Switching Reforming: making Hydrogen to balance variable Wind, Solar
What is the best technology to balance the variable output of wind and solar? When there is little wind and sun the plant must produce power to compensate. When there’s too much wind and sun it must utilise that excess power. In other words, given the high capital cost of the new balancing technology it must do both profitably enough to cover the time sitting idle. A paper co-authored by Schalk Cloete looks at Gas Switching Reforming (GSR). The … [Read more...]
U.S. Presidential Election: for the first time, climate is a top priority
Another climate action “first” this year will be the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Never before has climate change featured as a top priority for American politicians and voters, says Arnault Barichella writing for the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. It’s thanks to the growing evidence of human-caused global warming in collision with a current President who calls it all a hoax and has been rolling back the regulations of his predecessor. … [Read more...]
CCUS, nuclear, industrial heat, hydrogen, smart grids: “large unit” innovation needs more support
How do we accelerate innovation across all technologies? Simon Bennett at the IEA breaks down the task into “small unit” and “large unit” challenges. The first is easier and moves faster. Thanks to their small size and unit cost, heat pumps, EVs and solar panels benefit from mass production, mass deployment (100,000 to 100m units/year globally) and large customer markets with fierce competition. They can also easily leverage other fast-evolving … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Decarbonising industry: how much policy-driven adoption is needed to let the market take over
Decarbonising industry is one of the world’s greatest challenges. The costs, today, are huge and therefore the technology adoption required has hardly started. But several technologies already exist. Gbemi Oluleye at Imperial College (UK) explains the first step is to measure the market size for each sub-sector, then estimate how much policy-driven adoption is required to achieve the cost reductions that make the change viable. After that, no … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios won’t hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, it’s getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEA’s most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
10 Carbon Capture methods compared: costs, scalability, permanence, cleanness
We need to understand carbon capture, storage and utilisation (CCUS) better. To do so, this article looks at 10 methods and estimates how much CO2 each will take out of the atmosphere by 2050, and the cost per tonne. In their list the authors, Ella Adlen and Cameron Hepburn at the University of Oxford, cover the industrial (e.g. CO2-EOR, synfuels) to the biological (e.g. forestry, soil carbon sequestration). They say there are six that can be … [Read more...]
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