Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
German Onshore Wind hit by residential regulations: will new profit-share rules help?
5.3 GW of newly installed capacity in 2017, 2.4 GW in 2018, 0.5 GW in the first nine months of 2019. Germany’s onshore wind power expansion has seen a dramatic slump. That’s completely against the trend in total renewables growth which saw its share of gross power consumption reached a record of almost 43% in 2019, up 5% on the previous year. Clearly, onshore wind is facing obstacles the other technologies aren’t, and that is the rules around how … [Read more...]
Offshore Wind: a new source of clean energy for Asia?
Offshore wind is seeing the same dramatic cost reductions as solar and onshore wind. Though still more expensive, it’s heading towards $60/MWh parity with them across Europe. The U.S., China and Taiwan are also experiencing impressive drops. It’s why global capacity nearly doubled in three years from 12GW in December 2015 to 23GW by the end of 2018. IEEFA’s briefing note “Offshore Wind Ready to Be Key Part of Energy Mix Globally – Top European … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
DNV-GL: energy’s shrinking share of growing global GDP shows how we can afford Transition
At the current rate of progress higher energy efficiency, more renewables, and carbon capture will not be enough to keep the global temperature rise to well below 2°C. So to point the way, DNV-GL has condensed its Energy Transition Outlook 2019 into 10 ways technology can meet the COP21 targets. This article gives figures on how much solar and wind we really need, battery production, annual investment in grids, and energy efficiency. It further … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
$7.87tn: the global green economy, by region, revenue, jobs, productivity
Economic data on the green economy in many countries can be difficult to come by. But it’s vitally important when convincing taxpayers that the investment is creating real turnover and real jobs. So Lucien Georgeson and Mark Maslin at UCL analysed massive databases to estimate global and country-by-country sales revenue and employment figures across 24 economic sub-sectors covering renewable energy, environmental protection, and low carbon goods … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germany’s existing “pioneer” wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants – launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they can’t find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germany’s energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
India: coal plummets, renewables stepping in
In 2018, 80% of India’s total energy lending went to renewables. Coal got the rest, a major fall compared to 2017. No wonder, given coal plants have been running at below 60% utilisation for two years with the operators suffering huge losses. Renewables are now undercutting coal and getting cheaper. And shortages in water – needed for plant cooling – just add to their woes. Vibhuti Garg at IEEFA catalogues the problems, then describes the … [Read more...]
Women facing barriers in the renewables workforce
Gender discrimination always matters. It should matter even more to the new green economy. Justice aside, barriers against half the workforce limit your talent pool. For a sector where "business as usual" guarantees failure we need to ensure the fairest selection processes from the widest possible pool as new jobs are created every day. But today’s energy sector has a bigger role to play. Energy is now arguably the 21st century’s “sector of … [Read more...]
Wind farms for cyclone zones: new standards and designs
Wind turbine designs and standards have been developed with today’s major markets in mind, Europe and North America. However, the bulk of future markets are expected to be in geographic areas where the meteorological and environmental conditions are much more extreme. Think cyclones, heavy rain and lightning. IRENA estimates that Asia will lead in onshore wind installations with over half of the total global capacity installed (>2,600 GW) by … [Read more...]
Will the German Climate Protection Programme 2030 miss its own targets?
On Friday, 20 September, the German Climate Cabinet agreed on the guidelines for German climate policy for the coming decade, set against the backdrop of EU targets. The core topic was additional CO2-pricing in the mobility and heating sectors. From 2021 a CO2-price of €10/ton will apply to the German transport and buildings sectors. The price will rise to €35/ton until 2025. But Simon Göss says the national emission trading system and new … [Read more...]
Private finance must invest in carbon asset retirement, not just clean energy
The Climate Finance Leadership Initiative (CFLI) is laying out concrete plans for the private sector to finance the low-carbon transition, say Tyeler Matsuo and Lucy Kessler of Rocky Mountain Institute. One important insight of their new report “Financing the Low-Carbon Future” is that it’s not enough to back clean energy. Climate finance also needs to accelerate the retirement and transformation of the carbon assets that are responsible for 78% … [Read more...]
Energy security v Transition in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey
Like most developing countries, the challenge of growing economies, increasing population and rapid urbanisation puts energy security above emissions reductions. So it is for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, says Duygu Sever in her report for IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. In this article she explains that all four countries nevertheless have high renewables deployment potential, and have already embraced wind and solar. To accelerate … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
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