IRENA has modelled energy subsidies to 2030 and 2050 for their pathway to meet the Paris targets. Here, Michael Taylor summarises their findings. Firstly, they estimate today’s global direct energy sector subsidies to be $634bn/year (2017 figures). The vast majority, $447bn, went to fossil fuels. (By the way, he points out that none of these figures include the externality costs - pollution, healthcare, environment - which equate to trillions and … [Read more...]
IEA projections 2020: energy demand plunges but Renewables still grow at Gas, Coal’s expense
The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
Nuclear fusion: public-private pitch for pilot power plant in U.S.
A working nuclear fusion plant has long been a dream of scientists. The “Sun in a box” would generate abundant low carbon energy with little waste and more safely than traditional existing nuclear (fission) plants. But the scientific, engineering and materials challenges are admittedly enormous. Meanwhile, other electricity generating technologies are getting cheaper, so will we ever need it? Nevertheless, a public-private collaboration in the … [Read more...]
AI software to improve Nuclear reactor designs, performance, safety, lifetimes
Nuclear plants have high up-front costs, complex processes occurring all the way down to the molecular level throughout their decades-long lifetimes, and strict safety criteria. Modelling all the parameters and predicting the outcomes has traditionally begun with theory and observation followed by simulations, the results of which are fed back into the next round of theories, and repeated until those results look valid. The quality of the … [Read more...]
China’s 2019 electricity generation reviewed as its next 5-year plan is drafted
Simon Göss breaks down the totals and additions for electricity generation in China. In 2019 the total reached 7,325 TWh (more than twice Europe’s) after adding 330 TWh (more than half Germany’s total). Of that 330 TWh, 120 TWh came from thermal (90%+ coal). But the numbers were dominated by renewables (hydro, wind, solar) which added almost 160 TWh. Though that’s the third year of declining renewables additions, wind and solar curtailment is … [Read more...]
Methane emissions underestimated by 25-40%, says new study
The methane in our atmosphere comes from natural biogenic (plants, animals) and fossil sources. By telling the difference we can know how much we humans are responsible for. It matters because methane is a potent greenhouse gas, second only to CO2. Previous “bottom-up” estimates came from multiplying the number of sources (livestock, natural gas operations, landfills) by their likely emissions. Robert McSweeney at Carbon Brief describes a new … [Read more...]
What if Germany wasn’t shutting down Nuclear? Modelling Coal, Gas, Renewables, emissions, prices
Germany plans to shut down its entire nuclear fleet by 2022. Right now, of the original 17, only 7 are still running. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan of 2011 was the trigger for Germany’s abandonment of emissions-free nuclear as part of its clean energy goals. Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas reviews a paper by his colleagues that has modelled the whole-system effects of the shutdowns, then compared the results with a … [Read more...]
Defining green investments, ending greenwash: the EU’s new Taxonomy Regulation
When the EU Commission’s new Taxonomy Regulation is approved, expected in March, it will provide the legal framework to define what is a truly ‘green’ investment. As Luca Bonaccorsi at Transport & Environment explains, right now asset managers and national authorities are free to define what is green, allowing some to greenwash investments in things like oil and pesticides. The Taxonomy's purpose is to reduce ambiguity and therefore increase … [Read more...]
200 – 400 Nuclear reactors to be decommissioned by 2040
Denis Iurchak has taken a close look at nuclear decommissioning. Globally, 447 nuclear reactors are in operation as of January 2020. Of those, nearly 70% are older than 30 years (25% are older than 40 years). The IEA says around 200 commercial reactors are to be shut down in the next two decades. On top of that, 182 reactors are already in permanent shutdown. This means that between 200 and 400 reactors are likely to be decommissioned by 2040, … [Read more...]
Gas Switching Reforming: making Hydrogen to balance variable Wind, Solar
What is the best technology to balance the variable output of wind and solar? When there is little wind and sun the plant must produce power to compensate. When there’s too much wind and sun it must utilise that excess power. In other words, given the high capital cost of the new balancing technology it must do both profitably enough to cover the time sitting idle. A paper co-authored by Schalk Cloete looks at Gas Switching Reforming (GSR). The … [Read more...]
The EU can support Central and East Europe’s transition
Six Central and East European nations, heavily dependent on coal, have been very cautious about the pace of the EU’s transition. For them - Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia - the political and economic disruption looks far harder to bear. E3G has just released a report that suggests this picture can change. The report’s authors – Felix Heilmann, Rebekka Popp and Ada Ámon – explain that coal is becoming less profitable, … [Read more...]
U.S. EIA predicts Renewables will surpass Coal by 2021
Renewable electricity generation in the U.S. has risen so fast in the last 10 years that it’s expected to surpass coal by 2021, according to the latest report from the nation’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). This would have been “unthinkable” in 2010, says Dennis Wamsted at IEEFA. Back then, nationwide, utility-scale solar generated 1.29bn kWh and wind 94.6bn kWh. By 2021 solar will have risen almost a hundredfold to 122bn kWh and wind … [Read more...]
“Climate leader” UK: why did low-carbon electricity generation stall in 2019?
In 2019, just 1TWh of low-carbon electricity (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass) was added in the UK. That’s after a decade of adding an average of 9TWh/year. Why? The UK needs to know, given an extra 15TWh/year is required until 2030 to meet emissions goals on top of the planned electrification of transport and heating. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their thorough analysis. Wind power alone rose by 8TWh in 2019, but was offset by … [Read more...]
U.S. Presidential Election: for the first time, climate is a top priority
Another climate action “first” this year will be the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Never before has climate change featured as a top priority for American politicians and voters, says Arnault Barichella writing for the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. It’s thanks to the growing evidence of human-caused global warming in collision with a current President who calls it all a hoax and has been rolling back the regulations of his predecessor. … [Read more...]
Is Germany’s emissions drop thanks to the EU ETS, not Berlin?
The good news is that 2019 saw a big decrease in Germany’s emissions, meaning a 35% reduction since 1990. It was only 30.8% by 2018, so the acceleration was thanks to a sharp drop in coal use. But emissions rose in transport and buildings, making the 2020 target of 40% more daunting. Add to that the slump in wind installations (permit problems) and the planned nuclear exit by 2022 (will more fossil fuels be needed to fill that big gap?), … [Read more...]
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