Nuclear is under severe price pressure from renewables now, as well as gas.But rather than throw the decades of investment and knowledge away, the U.S. Department of Energy is launching three first-of-a-kind projects designed to improve the long-term economic competitiveness of the nuclear power industry. Three commercial electric utilities and Idaho National Laboratory have been chosen to adapt plants to make hydrogen by electrolysis, 100% … [Read more...]
Can other technologies replicate Solar PV price reductions?
Catherine Wolfram at the Haas School of Business reviews the new book “How Solar Energy Became Cheap” by Greg Nemet. It traces Solar PV’s history from Bell Labs in 1954 through to the present. The phenomenal price drops mean today’s cost/kWh is 1,000 times lower than in the 1970s. The analysis is split into four epochs when output was dominated by US, Japanese, then German and finally Chinese production. How much were improvements thanks to sheer … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Is selling nuclear plants for decommissioning a safety issue?
In the U.S., last month, the $48bn nuclear firm Exelon sold its Oyster Creek power plant to a smaller privately-owned firm, Holtec International, that specialises in decommissioning. It’s one of several similar recent transactions that sound sensible. But Lucas Davis, at the Haas School of Business, and Catherine Hausman, of the University of Michigan, argue this may present an economic text book case of “moral hazard”. Big firms are more likely … [Read more...]
Time for tech-neutral incentives if renewables growth won’t stop climate change?
In 2018 energy use grew 2.9% and emissions 2%. That means renewables are not keeping up with energy’s growth: it will need a four-fold increase in wind and solar’s growth to do so, says Schalk Cloete. There’s more: to cut global CO2 emissions by the 3% per year we need to meet the Paris goals wind and solar growth rates must increase by over an order of magnitude. He reviews the evidence and concludes that current technology-forcing policies – … [Read more...]
Carbon-emitting gas, not renewables, is replacing U.S. nuclear
Ohio, USA, subsidises renewables. Now the Ohio State Legislature is fighting over a bill that will re-shape and extend that support to all clean energy, including nuclear. That’s how it should be, says Jim Conca. He reviews a report by regional transmission organisation PJM that says keeping nuclear plants open is far cheaper. Moreover, it’s far better for emissions. That’s because whenever a nuclear plant is shut down in the U.S. it is replaced … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. It’s what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
Small Modular Reactors: interview with NuScale’s Jose Reyes
Dan Yurman has interviewed the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of NuScale Power, Jose Reyes. NuScale designs and markets small modular reactors (SMRs). Its NuScale Power Module can generate 60 MW: small units, alone or combined, can suit a far wider range of energy demand than standard reactors that deliver hundreds of MWs at a minimum. The comprehensive interview covers international and U.S. developments, including plans to commence … [Read more...]
U.S. Military’s mobile mini-nuclear: fewer fuel supply convoys mean fewer casualties
U.S. Military figures show the resupply of liquid fuel and drinking water for troops in-theatre costs about 4 lives for every 100 convoys. It makes an army more vulnerable and limits movement. That’s why the U.S. Department of Defense is looking at very small modular nuclear reactors (vSMRs): sub-10MW nuclear units. They are already being designed, built and tested. If successful, no refuelling is required for years and the units can be … [Read more...]
South Korea’s nuclear ambitions face safety, quality issues
Dan Yurman summarises the regulatory, academic and press coverage of serious delays to South Korean nuclear reactors being built for the UAE. According to reports, these were caused by having to replace substandard components in reactors located in both South Korea and those planned for the UAE. There are problems with staff training too. South Korea recently completed the US NRC safety review process for its 1400 MW design. But the author asks … [Read more...]
2009 to 2017: solar, wind costs plummet, hydro steady, nuclear up
Between 2009 and 2017 prices dropped 76% for solar panels and 34% for wind turbines. Hydro and nuclear struggle to cut costs; as mature technologies, most of the efficiencies have already been squeezed out already. Also, they are difficult to productise and scale; dams (definitely) and nuclear plants (somewhat) are one-offs. In contrast, solar panels and wind turbines are far easier to productise and then mass produce. It’s why wind overtook … [Read more...]
Leaked German govt report: emissions target will be missed despite on-target renewables
A leaked draft of Germany’s Energiewende Progress Report 2019, due to be released by the economy ministry in May or June, predicts the country will miss its targets for reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by wide margins. This is despite the inevitable emissions reductions due to the 2009 recession and being on track for renewables. If no other measures are taken Germany will reduce emissions by 33% by 2020, falling short of the … [Read more...]
More nuclear means more waste disposal: the options, science, engineering
Public concern about nuclear power goes beyond an accident at a live plant. What do we do with the nuclear waste? If nuclear is to grow to become a major replacement for oil and gas the question must be answered. James Conca reviews the different methods that have been seriously considered: shooting it into space, burying it in deep sea trenches or under ice sheets, transmutation, or simply digging it even deeper underground. … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
SMR reactors: questions the “new nuclear” industry needs to answer
The new energy world is full of ambition about future developments, not least nuclear. At some point hard questions have to be asked and answered. Dan Yurman is asking questions about next generation Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). For example, why take on the unknown material and regulatory risk of SMRs over the known risks of proven LWRs? Which governments and/or investors will back the $500m needed to get an SMR into production? Where are the … [Read more...]
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