Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
Energy security v Transition in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey
Like most developing countries, the challenge of growing economies, increasing population and rapid urbanisation puts energy security above emissions reductions. So it is for Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, says Duygu Sever in her report for IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate. In this article she explains that all four countries nevertheless have high renewables deployment potential, and have already embraced wind and solar. To accelerate … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
U.S. nuclear plants to produce carbon-free hydrogen
Nuclear is under severe price pressure from renewables now, as well as gas.But rather than throw the decades of investment and knowledge away, the U.S. Department of Energy is launching three first-of-a-kind projects designed to improve the long-term economic competitiveness of the nuclear power industry. Three commercial electric utilities and Idaho National Laboratory have been chosen to adapt plants to make hydrogen by electrolysis, 100% … [Read more...]
Can other technologies replicate Solar PV price reductions?
Catherine Wolfram at the Haas School of Business reviews the new book “How Solar Energy Became Cheap” by Greg Nemet. It traces Solar PV’s history from Bell Labs in 1954 through to the present. The phenomenal price drops mean today’s cost/kWh is 1,000 times lower than in the 1970s. The analysis is split into four epochs when output was dominated by US, Japanese, then German and finally Chinese production. How much were improvements thanks to sheer … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Is selling nuclear plants for decommissioning a safety issue?
In the U.S., last month, the $48bn nuclear firm Exelon sold its Oyster Creek power plant to a smaller privately-owned firm, Holtec International, that specialises in decommissioning. It’s one of several similar recent transactions that sound sensible. But Lucas Davis, at the Haas School of Business, and Catherine Hausman, of the University of Michigan, argue this may present an economic text book case of “moral hazard”. Big firms are more likely … [Read more...]
Time for tech-neutral incentives if renewables growth won’t stop climate change?
In 2018 energy use grew 2.9% and emissions 2%. That means renewables are not keeping up with energy’s growth: it will need a four-fold increase in wind and solar’s growth to do so, says Schalk Cloete. There’s more: to cut global CO2 emissions by the 3% per year we need to meet the Paris goals wind and solar growth rates must increase by over an order of magnitude. He reviews the evidence and concludes that current technology-forcing policies – … [Read more...]
Carbon-emitting gas, not renewables, is replacing U.S. nuclear
Ohio, USA, subsidises renewables. Now the Ohio State Legislature is fighting over a bill that will re-shape and extend that support to all clean energy, including nuclear. That’s how it should be, says Jim Conca. He reviews a report by regional transmission organisation PJM that says keeping nuclear plants open is far cheaper. Moreover, it’s far better for emissions. That’s because whenever a nuclear plant is shut down in the U.S. it is replaced … [Read more...]
BP Review of 2018: record CO2, energy use as gas outstrips wind & solar
Energy use grew at 2.9% in 2018, the largest rise since 2010. It’s what happens when economies grow. But gas, oil and coal's contribution to that growth saw global CO2 emissions rise by 2% in 2018, the largest year-on-year increase in seven years. Wind and solar growth, driven by China though slowing in the US, EU, and India, achieved its second fastest rate on record - but still lagged behind gas additions. These are not the trends we need to … [Read more...]
Small Modular Reactors: interview with NuScale’s Jose Reyes
Dan Yurman has interviewed the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of NuScale Power, Jose Reyes. NuScale designs and markets small modular reactors (SMRs). Its NuScale Power Module can generate 60 MW: small units, alone or combined, can suit a far wider range of energy demand than standard reactors that deliver hundreds of MWs at a minimum. The comprehensive interview covers international and U.S. developments, including plans to commence … [Read more...]
U.S. Military’s mobile mini-nuclear: fewer fuel supply convoys mean fewer casualties
U.S. Military figures show the resupply of liquid fuel and drinking water for troops in-theatre costs about 4 lives for every 100 convoys. It makes an army more vulnerable and limits movement. That’s why the U.S. Department of Defense is looking at very small modular nuclear reactors (vSMRs): sub-10MW nuclear units. They are already being designed, built and tested. If successful, no refuelling is required for years and the units can be … [Read more...]
South Korea’s nuclear ambitions face safety, quality issues
Dan Yurman summarises the regulatory, academic and press coverage of serious delays to South Korean nuclear reactors being built for the UAE. According to reports, these were caused by having to replace substandard components in reactors located in both South Korea and those planned for the UAE. There are problems with staff training too. South Korea recently completed the US NRC safety review process for its 1400 MW design. But the author asks … [Read more...]
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