The IEA has released new interactive data tools to track the development of low-emissions hydrogen production around the world. They provide a snapshot of progress on hydrogen production, with data on almost 2,000 projects that are either already in operation or have been announced. Most projects to date are concentrated in Europe and Australia, with a growing number planned in Africa, China, India, Latin America and the U.S. One of the tools … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: power prices and revenues predicted for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Huangluolun Zhou, Elena Dahlem and Alex Schmitt at Energy Brainpool present their updated “EU Energy Outlook 2060”, modelling how the European energy system will undergo major changes in the coming decades while continuing to guarantee a secure supply and meet its climate targets. What do these developments mean for power prices, revenue potential and risks for solar PV and wind? The two main scenarios are “Central” and “GoHydrogen” for the EU 27 … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
Middle East & Africa to export Hydrogen to Europe? Better to make green Iron & Steel and export that
The MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) is well suited to making green hydrogen. There’s huge potential for powering green hydrogen production with cheap solar. And Europe wants to import it. But Soroush Basirat and Simon Nicholas at IEEFA argue that MENA should use the green hydrogen to make green iron and steel and export that. It already has an established direct reduced iron (DRI) sector: now powered by gas which can be swapped out for … [Read more...]
Europe is updating its price cap sanctions on Russian oil. How to make them work?
The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
Cost vs Resilience: Europe’s sourcing strategy will shape the regional Hydrogen economy
The upcoming EU Hydrogen Bank pilot auction and trilogue discussions are focussing minds on the future of hydrogen. Jonas Lotze and Massimo Moser at TransnetBW and Janina Erb, Roman Flatau, Felix Greven and Max Labmayr at d-fine present the results of their modelling of two hydrogen sourcing scenarios: "Global Market" (GM) where the import of hydrogen into Europe is unrestricted, and "Energy Resilient Europe" (ERE) where almost all hydrogen is … [Read more...]
Europe’s big Hydrogen ambitions won’t deliver. Stick to ammonia-fertiliser, refining, shipping, aviation (maybe later)
Europe’s hydrogen ambitions need a reality check. The EU’s goal to produce and import 20m tonnes of clean hydrogen by 2030 is now widely seen as completely unrealistic, says William Todts at T&E. The business case is not good enough because of the high costs that aren’t coming down as hoped. It’s why only 4% of hydrogen projects get financed. Far better to focus on no regrets, low infrastructure hydrogen applications for ammonia-fertiliser, … [Read more...]
China can learn from the EU about power market design and infrastructure build-out
How will China integrate its growing Variable Renewable Energy generation and create a nationwide energy system that avoids the risks of curtailment, stranded assets and blackouts? A good place to start is to learn from Europe. Helen Farrell at ECECP summarises their report that uses the European experience to model scenarios for China. China’s key challenges is that its power market lacks an effective auxiliary service market, a capacity market, … [Read more...]
Affordable €25k EVs by 2025: Europe’s carmakers can do it. Instead they’re making more profitable SUVs
T&E present a summary of their study which shows that European carmakers can produce affordable EVs (40 kWh LFP battery, 250-300 km range) priced at €25k by 2025 with a reasonable 4% profit margin. Priced for the mass market, this would add a million extra EV sales annually, accelerate the removal of combustion engines, and counter China’s dominance of the EV market. The obstacle is the insistence by Europe’s leading manufacturers - BMW, … [Read more...]
Though the price shocks hurt, Renewables installed between 2021-23 saved Europe €100bn
According to the IEA, without the solar and wind capacity additions made in 2021-23 Europe’s energy costs would have been €100bn higher in those three years, as prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unexpected drop in output from nuclear and hydro. That money saved is another reason why the ramp up of renewables is so important, explains Joe Myers writing for the World Economic Forum who summarises the IEA data. Natural gas … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
Does Nuclear slow down the scale-up of Wind and Solar? France and Germany can’t agree
France and Germany lead the camps in disagreeing on the future of nuclear in Europe. Camille Lafrance and Benjamin Wehrmann at CLEW take a deep dive into the reasons why, quoting experts and politicians. Germany’s vision of a fully renewables-based EU is at odds with France’s unwavering support for low-carbon nuclear energy. European-wide agreement on targets matter because they drive future investment in the targeted technologies and the design … [Read more...]
Draft EU rules on Battery lifecycle decarbonisation: close the loopholes!
Draft rules mean battery manufacturers selling into Europe will have to report the product’s entire carbon footprint, from mining to production to recycling, as early as July 2024. That data will then be used to set a maximum CO2 limit for batteries to apply from the end of 2027. This is a big step forward, says T&E, addressing concerns over battery carbon footprint and recycling, and it also covers environment and human rights. But T&E … [Read more...]
Nuclear power capacity is growing globally. Where, how and why
Ewan Thomson at the World Economic Forum summarises the state of nuclear power worldwide. In 2020 it made up 10% of global electricity generation, more than all the wind and solar PV combined. It’s the second-largest source of low-emissions electricity. But many advanced countries are no longer backing nuclear, citing safety and cost concerns, and instead are pushing the growing number of alternative clean energy technologies. Nevertheless, … [Read more...]
Will U.S. become the Global Gas Market’s source of flexibility and security of supply?
The U.S. will take the lead in offering flexibility and security of supply to the global gas market, and at prices linked to its wholesale gas market, the most liquid in the world, argue Kong Chyong and Ira Joseph at the Center on Global Energy Policy. It’s because the U.S. leads in the three key sources of gas trade flexibility, critical to meeting unexpected supply and demand gaps: natural gas storage systems, spare capacity in production and … [Read more...]
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