IEEFA has published its U.S. Power Sector Outlook 2021. Its authors, Dennis Wamsted, Seth Feaster and David Schlissel summarise and explain the projections. They say that coal and gas are set to become the biggest losers as renewable generation climbs quickly. The future for wind and solar – coupled with storage to address intermittency - is looking very good. They present estimates from NextEra (the largest renewable energy developer in the … [Read more...]
Germany’s plans to be a Hydrogen leader: producer, consumer, solutions provider
Germany is getting in early on the proposed hydrogen economy as a producer, consumer and with intentions to be the leading international supplier of hydrogen technologies. Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool runs through the main drivers for hydrogen before summarising the German strategy. The German 2030 target is to have electrolyser capacity of 5GW installed to produce 14TWh of green hydrogen, providing 15% of the hydrogen consumed in Germany by … [Read more...]
Are EV owners driving less than we thought?
Research from California, the EV leader in the U.S., suggests that EV owners drive their vehicles half as much as the average gasoline car owner. Catherine Wolfram at the Haas School of Business explains that their research project reveals mileage data is so hard to gather that it’s difficult to know what’s actually going on. Is the data wrong (they don’t think so), or are EVs only being bought by drivers who don't use a car much? If so, the … [Read more...]
Low gasoline prices create a window for tax changes to fund energy transitions
Low crude oil and gasoline prices create an opportunity for all governments to reform the way they tax or subsidise these important fuels. In general, richer importing nations have high gasoline taxes to generate substantial revenues. Poorer nations subsidise them to cut the bill for their citizens and industries. Oil producing nations do little of either. Domenico Lattanzio and Alexandre Bizeul at the IEA explain how nations that use subsidies … [Read more...]
Washington State (U.S.) bill could make it the home for next generation Nuclear
Nuclear may soon be getting a boost from Washington State in the north-west of the U.S. There, a bill is being presented to promote the manufacture and deployment of new nuclear reactors. It will provide generous tax incentives to nuclear investments in the state. It’s the sort of support that renewable energy technology is used to, yet nuclear struggles to get because of critics of nuclear energy. That opposition is very frustrating, explains … [Read more...]
Germany’s Renewable Energy Act 2021: how to implement the fine policy detail of emissions reduction targets
After much haggling and debate, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG) 2021 was finally approved in December and came into force on 1 January 2021. Sila Akat and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool outline the most important changes imposed by the amendment. It gives an insight into how a nation is dealing with the finer details of increasingly ambitious emissions reduction targets. The authors cover the main issues and outcomes. How Germany is dealing … [Read more...]
How do we get EV payback periods down to 4 years?
The take-off of EVs will happen when the lifetime cost of ownership falls below that for a conventional car. But let’s remember that “lifetime” for a Brit means 4 years as that’s the average period of ownership. Gerard Wynn and Arjun Flora at IEEFA show how the payback period on Gerard’s Renault Zoe ZE50 has been cut by over a fifth simply by signing up to a smart meter tariff. It’s dropped from 10 to 8 years. The UK is nearing the universal roll … [Read more...]
The energy transition needs some of the $12tn global Covid stimulus. But much less than you think
Governments worldwide have committed over $12tn to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, spent over the next 5 years. Current estimates say the energy transition needs $1.4tn/year globally between 2020 and 2024 to get us on the path to meet the 1.5oC Paris goal. Clearly, there is an opportunity here. Although support for healthcare systems and the overall economy are the stated priority of governments, much of that $12tn is still not committed. … [Read more...]
Net Zero by 2050 technically and economically achievable, says Energy Transitions Commission report
Making Mission Possible, the latest report by the Energy Transitions Commission, describes a net-zero world by mid-century as technically and economically possible. The solutions are already available or close to being brought to market. What is still missing is the will to embrace, rapidly and at scale, the inevitable disruption that will ultimately deliver net-zero emissions, lower air pollution, cheaper energy bills, create new jobs and raise … [Read more...]
Europe could have subsidy-free Offshore Wind by 2023
A study has analysed offshore wind projects in 5 countries – the UK, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium – to show that wind farms due to be built after 2020 are converging towards a range of €50-70/MWh. It wasn’t long ago that such low prices were only predicted for 2050, say Iegor Riepin, Felix Müsgens (Brandenburg University of Technology), Malte Jansen and Iain Staffell (Imperial College London), writing for Carbon Brief. To make … [Read more...]
Waste Heat Recovery can help replace Poland’s District Heating coal
Three quarters of all district heating in Poland comes from burning coal. So the country is looking for ways to reduce this. It’s why subsidies are provided for combined heat and power (CHP) plants that burn either coal, gas or biomass, which all have lower emissions. But a report by IEEFA authored by Gerard Wynn, Arjun Flora and Paolo Coghe says that waste heat recovery (WHR) – currently unsubsidised – is both emissions free and can be … [Read more...]
Investing for tomorrow, because Energy subsidies will decline 25% by 2050 – analysis
IRENA has modelled energy subsidies to 2030 and 2050 for their pathway to meet the Paris targets. Here, Michael Taylor summarises their findings. Firstly, they estimate today’s global direct energy sector subsidies to be $634bn/year (2017 figures). The vast majority, $447bn, went to fossil fuels. (By the way, he points out that none of these figures include the externality costs - pollution, healthcare, environment - which equate to trillions and … [Read more...]
How much subsidy do EVs need to be competitive?
Despite a wide range of subsidies and incentives, battery electric vehicles (BEV) make up only 1.4% of new car sales in the U.S. That the effective battery cost is zero to the consumer doesn’t seem to be lifting that number any higher. Meanwhile, in Norway the percentage is a much more impressive 42%, but those subsidies and incentives are far higher: the effective battery cost is negative 385 $/kWh for a typical 60kWh battery pack, i.e. a very … [Read more...]
Coronavirus bailouts should be explicit, not hidden by CO2 tax cuts. And nothing for Oil
Many industries will be pleading their case for a Coronavirus bailout. Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas explains why the oil industry should not be one of them. Oil prices, already on the slide, are indeed sinking lower thanks to the pandemic. But decarbonisation should be sending them that way anyway. And the oil price has always be artificially high thanks to the OPEC cartel and weak or complicit “competition” from non-OPEC … [Read more...]
2019-2024: competitive auctions will launch over 2/3rds of utility-scale renewables, says IEA
Government support for new utility-scale capacity is being replaced with competitive auctions, the surest sign that the commercial appetite for renewables - particularly solar PV and onshore wind - is growing strong. This article by the IEA pulls out the essential numbers from their annual Renewables 2019 report (their 5-year market analysis and forecast for renewable energy and technologies in the electricity, heat and transport sectors). The … [Read more...]
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