In May the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed new rules regulating carbon emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants. Here, four experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies – Cy McGeady, John Larsen, Kyle Danish and Mathias Zacarias – make their assessment and point at the wide-ranging implications. The main issues covered include CCS, hydrogen-fuelled generation, state clean energy standards, carbon pricing, … [Read more...]
Europe: preventing a “carbon wall” between the West and the ten Central and Eastern EU nations
Diana-Paula Gherasim at the IFRI Centre for Energy & Climate summarises her 36-page data-rich report on the progress and challenges for the ten Central and Eastern EU (CEECs) countries in decarbonisation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has focussed all minds on energy security and the best solutions: less fossils, efficiency gains and clean energy made in the EU. Gherasim says that vitally important progress is being made in avoiding a … [Read more...]
Record clean-power growth in 2023: is Coal and Gas decline now structurally embedded?
Last year, wind and solar reached a record 12% of global electricity generation, according to think tank Ember’s latest global electricity review. The overall share of all forms of low-carbon electricity rose to almost 40% of total generation. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief goes through the Ember review which heralds this as the moment fossils began their permanent decline. Ember calls it “structural” and “enduring” because previous declines only … [Read more...]
Credit Rating Agencies: a guide to pricing in long-term climate risks
Nobody wants share, stock and bond prices to fall off a cliff unexpectedly. But while Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) continue to evaluate based on short-term policy changes and market forces without specifically accounting for climate risks, that’s what could happen. IEEFA have published their guides to how CRAs can adapt – without throwing out – their existing models to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risks. Hazel … [Read more...]
Germany closes its last 3 nuclear reactors. Understanding the reasons why
Germany has a long history of being resistant to all things nuclear. No new commercial reactors have been built since 1989. By 2023, nuclear made up only 6% of its power mix. To meet its decarbonisation goals, the government is confident of its target to reach an 80% renewables share in electricity demand by 2030 without nuclear. Hence the shut-down of its last three reactors over the weekend. Yet nuclear supporters say that leaving the last six … [Read more...]
Renewables “cost of capital” in Europe lower than oil, gas, coal. What the U.S. and China can learn
The ultimate price of anything is highly dependent on the cost of capital needed to put it in place. That cost reflects the risks financial markets perceive. And policy certainty reduces risk. Gireesh Shrimali, Christian Wilson and Xiaoyan Zhou at Oxford University, writing for WEF, summarise their global study which shows the cost of capital for different energy technologies, and therefore which ones will trend upwards and dominate. They cover … [Read more...]
IEA’s global “CO2 Emissions in 2022” report: by sector, fuel, region, heating +more
The IEA has published “CO2 Emissions in 2022”, giving estimates of CO2 emissions from all energy sources and industrial processes globally. Emissions from energy combustion increased by 423 Mt, while emissions from industrial processes decreased by 102 Mt. Emissions from various sources (sector, fuel, region, heating, etc.) are broken down, with reasons for why the change happened. The report is part of the IEA’s first global stocktake of the … [Read more...]
EU: data shows Russia–Ukraine war has not increased Coal and emissions. It’s quite the opposite
The Russian gas crisis has not resulted in the return of coal and high emissions in Europe, says Lauri Myllyvirta at CREA. He presents the figures that show quite the opposite. Coal returned, as expected, with the post-Covid rebound, but peaked in September 2022 below its pre-Covid level, and has been falling since along with emissions. Meanwhile, high gas prices caused by Russia’s cut-off has kept gas demand low and, more importantly, driven the … [Read more...]
Coal phase-out: Developing world targets are unfeasible. Rich nations must cut emissions faster
Developing nations like China, India and South Africa are being asked to phase out coal more than twice as fast as any comparable energy phase-out in history, for the world to meet the Paris climate goals. That’s simply unrealistic say James Price and Steve Pye at UCL who present the results of their new study. Instead, rich nations will have to reduce significantly their oil and gas to compensate for the shortfall. An oil and gas peak isn’t good … [Read more...]
Wind and Solar generated record 20% of EU electricity in 2022. More than gas, nuclear, hydro, coal
Now 2022 is over, the figures are in for all the main electricity generation types. For the first time ever, wind and solar delivered more electricity in 2022 than gas, nuclear, hydro or coal. In total, that’s a record one-fifth of the EU’s electricity last year. We can thank the “triple crisis” of Russian gas cuts, the 500-year record drought’s effect on hydro, and the unexpected French nuclear shutdowns for the renewed drive for wind and solar. … [Read more...]
Russia, fossil prices, energy security will boost Renewables to 38% of global power mix by 2027, says IEA
The IEA has raised its 2027 forecasts for total renewables additions in its main scenario to 2,383GW – around the total power capacity of China. That’s a 28% increase on the previous estimate and up 76% from two years ago, explains Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief who summarises the IEA’s latest forecasts. Globally, solar power will overtake gas by installed capacity in 2026 and coal in 2027. There are two main drivers for this acceleration. High … [Read more...]
Health benefits of Wind Power: first replace the most polluting fossil plants, not the most expensive
It makes economic sense, when intermittent wind (or solar) generation rises, to turn down the most expensive fossil plants. Or does it? Join the dots to health costs and it may make more economic sense to turn down the most polluting plants first. Jennifer Chu at MIT describes research there that creates models and scenarios to interrogate that theory. Using hourly generation records, pollution and health cost data from across the U.S. they found … [Read more...]
COP 27: a way forward for methane, fossil fuel (not just coal) phase-out, and U.S.-China competition?
COP 27 was never expected to have the impact that COP 26 did, and that’s how it turned out, explain Ben Cahill, Sandeep Pai and Taiya Smith at CSIS. But there are three issues that can have long term positive impacts if carried forward successfully. The first is some good news on methane emissions. The U.S., the EU, Japan and other countries announced an important producer-consumer effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions from traded gas, while … [Read more...]
EU Energy Outlook to 2060: how will power prices and revenues develop for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more
Alex Schmitt and Huangluolun Zhou at Energy Brainpool present a summary of their “EU Energy Outlook 2060”. Its scenarios map out how the European (EU 27, UK, Switzerland and Norway) energy system will change dramatically in the coming decades. Current geopolitical tensions are added to climate mitigation and an outdated power plant fleet as the main drivers of change at the EU and national levels. The in-depth modelling is trying to answer the … [Read more...]
IEA says peak coal is a few years away, but China’s demand for energy suggests not
Lucas Davis at the Haas School of Business questions the IEA’s optimism revealed in its latest World Energy Outlook 2022 that predicted coal will peak in the next few years. In 2021, global coal consumption increased 5% and global electricity generation from coal reached an all-time high. China is the main driver - last year over half of all coal-fired electricity generation came from China - and its energy demand keeps rising. Between 2000 and … [Read more...]
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