The IEA is forecasting that renewables will cover only half the projected increase in global electricity demand in 2021 and 2022. Despite renewablesâ impressive growth, coal and gas will be needed to cover the rest. That means emissions will rise to record levels. That will be the reverse of the IEAâs (and many othersâ) âRoadmap to Net Zero by 2050â pathway, where three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 come from the … [Read more...]
Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications
Most net-zero scenarios include carbon removal as a major component. Simon Göss at cr.hub reviews five major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, ETC, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). He starts by making the very important distinction between carbon capture and negative emissions: capturing carbon from, say, a gas plant does not deliver negative emissions, it just prevents new emissions. This article is about the … [Read more...]
Wind, Solar: continuing cost declines will help meet rising renewables targets
The ECâs âFit for 55â proposals include the raising of the EUâs 2030 target for total energy produced from renewable sources to 40%. Much of the rest of the world will likely raise its targets at some point too. Continuing to cut the cost of renewable energy generation will be essential to make that happen, and take pressure off all the other associated costs of supporting its integration into the energy system. Michael Taylor at IRENA summarises … [Read more...]
End Fossil Fuel subsidies by shifting them to poorer households
In May, the environment ministers of the G7 agreed to end fossil fuel subsidies within this decade. Around $650 bn/year is spent worldwide on subsidising all energy sources, with the majority ($450bn) going to fossil fuels despite the climate crisis. But simply removing the subsidies has proven difficult. They keep energy costs low for consumers. Itâs why public protest resisted the change in Ecuador and France in 2019. And developing nations … [Read more...]
What if Carbon Capture fails? Modelling the consequences and solutions
Most policy scenarios being used by governments include carbon capture as a vital tool to reduce emissions. Though itâs far from proven at scale, models assume that between 2030 and 2050 carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will get its act together and deliver on its part in the net-zero puzzle. Assuming that will happen, burning fossil fuels can continue for longer. But Neil Grant and Ajay Gambhir at Imperial College London, writing for Carbon Brief, … [Read more...]
U.S. canât hit net-zero power target by 2035 without Advanced Nuclear
President Bidenâs target of net-zero power generation by 2035 will be extremely challenging, if not impossible, argues Charles Merlin writing for IFRI. He says the best chance of achieving it is through advanced nuclear reactors, though the 2030+ switch-on dates of the new technology still wonât guarantee meeting Bidenâs timescales. Why should the U.S. drive for advanced nuclear? Because of the known limitations of the other technologies. Wind … [Read more...]
Chinaâs energy system: record renewables expansion, but coal still dominates
Lara Dombrowski and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool give the latest headline figures for Chinaâs energy system. In 2020 electricity generation in China went up by 298 TWh â an increase equal to 60% of Germanyâs total. That year, renewables capacity increased more than ever before. That made China responsible for nearly 50% of global renewable capacity additions. But China has higher CO2 emissions than all the OECD countries combined. And continued … [Read more...]
Finland starts excavation of worldâs first Deep Geologic Nuclear Waste Repository
Finlandâs policy is to dispose of, within its borders, spent nuclear fuel rather than reprocess it. Excavation of a deep geological repository - for final disposal - at Olkiluoto began in May and is a world first. Not even the U.S., with its waste from over 130 nuclear reactors built since the 1950s, has committed to one. James Conca looks at Finlandâs history of nuclear waste disposal, how it got to this decision, and the disposal method. The … [Read more...]
Fit for 55: Does squeeze on gas make coal exit harder? Event summary + video
On May 18, 2021, Energy Post hosted an expert panel with the European Commission, E3G, CERRE and PKEE (the Polish Electricity Association, who also sponsored the discussion). It looked at some of the key EU support mechanisms offered to countries/companies transitioning away from coal, including the EU ETS' Modernisation Fund, the Just Transition Fund  and also how State Aid Guidelines (EEAG) contribute. We asked Stefaan Vergote (Senior Advisor … [Read more...]
Does new German target mean Coal gone by 2029, Renewables 65% by 2030?
The stiffer emissions targets introduced this month to Germanyâs Climate Protection Law - CO2 emissions from the energy industry must fall to 108 Mt by 2030 instead of 175 â point to an even earlier coal phase-out date of 2029, with renewables generating 65% of electricity by 2030. The existing plan had meant coal must be gone by 2038. Michael ClauĂner, Carlos Perez-Linkenheil and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool explain why, using their modelling … [Read more...]
Sustainably harvested Forest Biomass can help replace coal and gas
Burning sustainably harvested wood pellets emits far less carbon than burning coal or gas. Thatâs the main reason why it should be used in the global energy transition, argues Jennifer Jenkins at Enviva. Coal is declining, but not fast enough. Gas consumption is rising. Forest biomass can more easily be swapped in than wind and solar to provide dispatchable power. But it must be done sustainably. Referencing her white paper, Jenkins sets out the … [Read more...]
EU-India cooperation: how to tap the large potential for climate action
India is the worldâs fifth largest economy, the second most populous, and over the next few decades is expected to see energy demand grow more than any other country. Ritu Ahuja and Mekhala Sastry at TERI, Abhishek Kaushik at the Centre for Global Environment Research, and Alexandra Deprez and Lola Vallejo at IDDRI look at Indiaâs challenges and which areas show the most potential for partnership with the EU. They focus on five themes: energy, … [Read more...]
Coal exit: EU policy revisions must face both tech and socioeconomic obstacles
By 2030, the EU must cut its emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. Agreeing on the target was hard enough. Much harder will be agreeing on the design of the rules, regulations and financial support needed to achieve it. Pieter de Pous at E3G scopes out the major decline already experienced by coal - the worst emitting energy source - before looking at the challenges faced by heavy coal users in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The … [Read more...]
Outlook USA: even with battery costs, Wind and Solar can undercut Coal and Gas by 2023-24
IEEFA has published its U.S. Power Sector Outlook 2021. Its authors, Dennis Wamsted, Seth Feaster and David Schlissel summarise and explain the projections. They say that coal and gas are set to become the biggest losers as renewable generation climbs quickly. The future for wind and solar â coupled with storage to address intermittency - is looking very good. They present estimates from NextEra (the largest renewable energy developer in the … [Read more...]
China: decoupling GDP growth from rising emissions
To set up this weekâs important online event (Tuesday 13th & Wednesday 14th April) âChina: Carbon Neutral by 2060 -EFFICIENCY FIRSTâ we have an overview of Chinaâs energy transition. Everyone agrees its performance is critical for the world to achieve the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5C by 2050. China made significant progress in 2020 with policy frameworks, renewable capacity additions and EVs, but it also added 38 GW of new … [Read more...]
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