BP’s latest Outlook predicts – for the first time - that oil saw its peak in 2019. In each of BP’s Outlooks, published annually since 2011, they have revised their predictions for the global energy landscape to 2050 as new data comes in. The growth of clean energy and the changing shape of climate policies have seen each successive forecast increase the share of renewables at the expense of fossil fuels. This year even gas has seen its prospects … [Read more...]
Global Coal Database: Covid lockdown may accelerate phase-out
E3G has created a database to track coal’s phase-out across the globe. Though much has been achieved, dating back to 2010, it’s still not on target. Chris Littlecott and Leo Roberts at E3G look at the data from different territories. The OECD and EU28 have made very good progress: 71% of these countries are pursuing coal phase-out, with 58% on track to be coal free by 2030. The article points at successes in the US, the UK, Spain and Germany … [Read more...]
Floating Solar: can it help ASEAN reverse coal’s continued rise?
Floating solar farms may be gaining traction in Asia. Capacity is still small: by 2019 the big players Japan and China had a combined floating photovoltaic (FPV) installed capacity of 1.3GW. But the ASEAN countries that had virtually nothing before 2019 now have over 51MW and have planned in another 858MW. A report by Sara Jane Ahmed and Elrika Hamdi at IEEFA explains why FPV is looking better and cheaper at balancing out peaks and troughs than … [Read more...]
Three U.S. utilities to skip the gas “bridge”, move straight from coal to renewables
At the end of June, utilities in three U.S. states declared they are closing down coal plants and moving straight to renewables, without building new gas plants as a “bridge” fuel. For example, to replace lost coal capacity, Tucson Electric Power in Arizona will add 2,457MW of new wind and solar generation, backed up with 1,400MW of battery storage. Similar commitments are being made by other utilities in Colorado and Florida. New Mexico is … [Read more...]
BP’s world energy review: 2019 saw clean electricity match coal
Simon Evans at Carbon Brief summarises BP’s 69th edition of its influential annual statistical review of world energy, looking at 2019. Overall, total energy demand rose, though slower than usual. Renewables were the largest source of new energy, but were closely followed by oil and gas. Coal use dropped again, the fourth drop in six years, thanks to historic declines in the EU and the US. But continued growth in SE Asia, China and India leaves … [Read more...]
The PAC Scenario: net-zero by 2040 to meet Europe’s Paris goals
The EU is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement obligations on emissions and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. CAN Europe and the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) present their Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario, designed to do just that. It’s been created through the careful analysis of contributions from more than 150 stakeholders including NGOs, scientists, industry and grid operators. Jörg Mühlenhoff at CAN Europe … [Read more...]
Waste Heat Recovery can help replace Poland’s District Heating coal
Three quarters of all district heating in Poland comes from burning coal. So the country is looking for ways to reduce this. It’s why subsidies are provided for combined heat and power (CHP) plants that burn either coal, gas or biomass, which all have lower emissions. But a report by IEEFA authored by Gerard Wynn, Arjun Flora and Paolo Coghe says that waste heat recovery (WHR) – currently unsubsidised – is both emissions free and can be … [Read more...]
Imported U.S. LNG: what’s its true climate footprint?
Importing LNG from the U.S., to replace coal, makes sense for Europe only if the total emissions including those throughout the chain of production are lower than the alternatives. Julian Wettengel at CLEW looks at reports that say the total methane emissions from the world’s largest oil and gas field – the Permian Basin in West Texas – are particularly high and may push it over that threshold. Flaring, venting and leakage are the main cause. … [Read more...]
Developing nations: Efficiency is cheaper than Coal in Indonesia
Developing economies face a particularly big challenge in reducing emissions. Their economies are growing rapidly, industrialising and urbanising. Their populations surely deserve the same rewards of wealth that the rich countries – the historical and per capita big emitters - have experienced. Can they get there without all the emissions? Indonesia believes so, committing itself to 29% unconditional emissions reductions by 2030. Virginie … [Read more...]
Negative electricity prices: lockdown’s demand slump exposes inflexibility of German power
The lockdown has unexpectedly allowed us to model certain aspects of the energy sector’s possible future. One is the oversupply of variable renewables into the grid. In Germany, a slump in demand plus an exceptionally sunny and windy few months sent wholesale electricity prices negative and to record lows. Fossil generators calculated that paying buyers to take electricity was cheaper than performing a shut-down re-start sequence, so they did … [Read more...]
IEA projections 2020: energy demand plunges but Renewables still grow at Gas, Coal’s expense
The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
Coal exit saves money when public health, land degradation costs added – analysis
Coal is cheap. In countries historically reliant on it, as well as emerging economies still building plants, switching to cleaner energy just doesn’t seem to add up. That’s when you’re only looking at your national energy system costs. But the externality costs of air pollution, public health and a degraded local environment are rarely factored in to the equation. When they are, explains Sebastian Rauner writing for Carbon Brief, abandoning coal … [Read more...]
Will China build more Coal to stimulate the economy?
Could China ramp up coal generation – of the order of hundreds of GW by 2030 - as part of its efforts to stimulate its economy and recover from the coronavirus slump? The thinking is that building a coal plant converts faster into economic growth than the equivalent spent on renewables. In the previous decade, building coal plants was an effective part of China’s economic growth plan that secured its place as the world’s second largest economy. … [Read more...]
China’s 2019 electricity generation reviewed as its next 5-year plan is drafted
Simon Göss breaks down the totals and additions for electricity generation in China. In 2019 the total reached 7,325 TWh (more than twice Europe’s) after adding 330 TWh (more than half Germany’s total). Of that 330 TWh, 120 TWh came from thermal (90%+ coal). But the numbers were dominated by renewables (hydro, wind, solar) which added almost 160 TWh. Though that’s the third year of declining renewables additions, wind and solar curtailment is … [Read more...]
Don’t blame Wind, Solar for Coal cycling. It’s everyday variable demand
Joseph Daniel at the Union of Concerned Scientists explains why variable renewables like wind and solar are not forcing coal plants to cycle (ramp up and down). He presents data from the U.S. that clearly shows it’s straightforward variable demand that’s doing it, because demand has always varied considerably throughout the day. So stop blaming the arrival and growth of wind and solar for this “inefficiency”, he says. These renewables have plenty … [Read more...]
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