Existing national commitments imply that today’s emissions will simply plateau, remaining only slightly below 2019 levels by 2030. However, according to the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) emissions gap report, the new commitments from China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK, Joe Biden’s US and others are “broadly consistent” with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal for 2050. But commitments aren’t policy, warns UNEP, and only real change … [Read more...]
Coastal town Grande-Synthe took France to court over missed climate targets. How, why and what happens next
Taking your own government to court is an indispensable tool for sticking to our climate goals, says Lucien Chabason at the IDDRI. In November, the French State Council (Conseil d'État) gave an interim judgment largely favourable to the municipality/commune of Grande-Synthe following the government's implicit refusal to take additional measures to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement. Grande-Synthe sits on the coast by Dunkirk and is at … [Read more...]
The energy transition needs some of the $12tn global Covid stimulus. But much less than you think
Governments worldwide have committed over $12tn to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, spent over the next 5 years. Current estimates say the energy transition needs $1.4tn/year globally between 2020 and 2024 to get us on the path to meet the 1.5oC Paris goal. Clearly, there is an opportunity here. Although support for healthcare systems and the overall economy are the stated priority of governments, much of that $12tn is still not committed. … [Read more...]
The Energy Charter Treaty needs updating, but remains a valuable tool for the transition
Last Thursday we published this critique of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT). Created in the 1990s, the ECT was designed to protect cross-border energy investments from political risk. Critics now say it is being used to protect fossil fuel investments in a world committed to phasing them out. Today, Andrei Belyi of energy consulting firm Balesene OU and Adjunct Professor in Energy Law and Policy at the University of Eastern Finland, who was named … [Read more...]
Energy Charter Treaty: reform will only happen when energy ministers get involved
Negotiations are underway for the reform of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), an international trade agreement under fire from former Energy Charter executives, members of the European Parliament, and NGOs. Created at the end of the cold war, it was designed to protect cross-border energy investments – in a fossil fuel world – from political risk. Clare Taylor quotes the critics who say it no longer makes sense for the treaty to protect oil and … [Read more...]
IEA: Without accelerating clean energy innovations we cannot hit net zero by 2050
The impressive rise of renewables and energy efficiency, alone, will not be sufficient to meet the world’s 2050 emissions goal, says the IEA in its flagship Clean Energy Innovation report. New technologies, taken all the way through to widespread adoption by the market, must become an essential part of the net zero pathway. The stark warning is that existing policies to decarbonise shipping, trucks, aviation and heavy industry are not nearly … [Read more...]
The PAC Scenario: net-zero by 2040 to meet Europe’s Paris goals
The EU is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement obligations on emissions and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. CAN Europe and the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) present their Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario, designed to do just that. It’s been created through the careful analysis of contributions from more than 150 stakeholders including NGOs, scientists, industry and grid operators. Jörg Mühlenhoff at CAN Europe … [Read more...]
The cost of climate inaction: putting a $ price on 4.5°C warming
Oriana Tannenbaum and Rushad Nanavatty at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) have gathered data that puts a price on not making the necessary investments in tackling climate change. For the U.S., a 4.5°C warming scenario (by 2050) will cost $5.2tn. At a more drastic 6°C the cost is $17tn. These projections are hard to do when treating the climate as an “infrastructure asset”, though proven methodologies do exist for tradition assets, and the authors … [Read more...]
Can emissions trading work without Article 6 of the Paris Agreement?
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement creates the framework for mechanisms that will allow nations and sub-national actors to trade emissions. Executed correctly, it must raise ambitions and reduce total emissions. It must also ensure there is transparent and accurate accounting for emissions, with no double-counting. It made little progress at December’s COP25. This was partly due to some countries “insisting on accounting loopholes”, writes Isabella … [Read more...]
Peak Energy by 2030: Efficiency gains will make the Transition affordable
We can’t afford the energy transition? Next time you hear that from someone, perhaps you can show them this. Sverre Alvik at DNV GL explains that, according to their latest Energy Transition Outlook, although annual global energy expenditure will have to increase from $4.6tn in 2017 to $5.5tn in 2050, its share of growing world GDP will almost halve from 3.6% to 1.9%. That’s because continuing energy efficiency gains are making sure that total … [Read more...]
Most “sector leader” German DAX firms will miss the Paris target
By how much would the earth warm up by 2050 if every company were to operate as emissions-intensively as yours does today? It’s a fascinating way to measure whether you are doing enough, or whether you are leaving the hard work to someone else. The fintech "right. based on science" has created a model that tries to answer these questions. They have used it on the 30 companies listed on the German DAX index by calculating the future emissions of … [Read more...]
COP25: the “easy wins” are coming to an end. What now?
Lola Vallejo at IDDRI says the impressive wins we’ve seen so far in clean electrification are merely the easy “low hanging fruit”. Other big sectors like transport, buildings and industry have barely started to transition. As COP 25 convenes in Madrid this week, the world will want to know what promises will be made - via each country’s self-imposed enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - to meet the Paris goals, because the current … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios won’t hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, it’s getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEA’s most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
DNV-GL: energy’s shrinking share of growing global GDP shows how we can afford Transition
At the current rate of progress higher energy efficiency, more renewables, and carbon capture will not be enough to keep the global temperature rise to well below 2°C. So to point the way, DNV-GL has condensed its Energy Transition Outlook 2019 into 10 ways technology can meet the COP21 targets. This article gives figures on how much solar and wind we really need, battery production, annual investment in grids, and energy efficiency. It further … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 3 of 5): fossil fuels
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technology, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. Cloete reminds us that fossil fuels did not reach their dominant … [Read more...]
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