No wonder young people have taken the reins of the climate demonstrations away from the adults. Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief shows that the global budget for avoiding warming of 1.5C or 2C has already been mostly used up. To put that in numbers, if children emit like their parents they’ll exhaust their carbon budget in just 9 years. It’s why emissions must peak in the next few years and then rapidly decline to hit the Paris targets. That’s … [Read more...]
Less politically centralised, can the EU remain a transition leader?
As a region the EU is a transition leader. Its primary energy consumption increased by only 0.2% in 2018 (globally it rose by 2.6%) and its CO2 emissions dropped by 1.7% (globally, up 1.7%). But the EU’s move towards greater “subsidiarity” and devolution of power, to counterbalance too much centralisation, has made it harder for the EU to act quickly and act big, says Lucien Chabason, Senior Advisor at the IDDRI. One example: how easily can … [Read more...]
1.5°C: IEA’s scenarios will fail, need urgent review says letter from experts, business leaders
The letter’s signatories – experts, business leaders, politicians and more - call on the IEA to make the 1.5°C target the central scenario in its highly influential annual World Energy Outlook. At present, its “New Policies Scenario” puts us on track for between 2.7°C and 3.3°C. That's a problem, because too many energy decision-makers cite it as an acceptable guide, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even the “Sustainable Development … [Read more...]
Global ‘sectoral’ treaties, legally binding corporate targets can turn around emissions rise
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change started with a top-down legally binding Kyoto Protocol and ended up with a bottom-up ‘self-determined’ voluntary Paris Agreement, says Chandra Bhushan. As a result, nobody has the tools to drive global collective action to combat climate change. The author says that’s why emissions are at record levels. He recommends international ‘sectoral’ treaties to achieve real transition in energy, … [Read more...]
“Energy Charter Treaty review should end protection for fossil fuels”
In her previous article Sarah Keay-Bright said the outdated Energy Charter Treaty protects old world fossil fuel investments over the wide range of new green investments now being made. The treaty is being reviewed by its signatories this year. In a concluding article, she and Steivan Defilla warn that the terms of reference for the ECT review don’t even mention the need to align the treaty with the Paris Agreement. They say the revised ECT must … [Read more...]
IEEFA: IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario is not enough
The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) – if it’s followed - sees the world limiting the temperature rise to below 2°C. Even if we stick to the plan the SDS gives us only a 50% chance of success. Tim Buckley at IEEFA says those odds are not good enough. Worse, the SDS depends on carbon capture and storage (CCS) achieving commercialisation at scale by 2030. The author explains why he thinks that’s unrealistic, and calls for the IEA to … [Read more...]
Transition: nation-by-nation review of race to phaseout coal
The global effort to phase out coal consumption is speeding up. However, a lot of necessary work is still to be done, both to align with the ambition of the Paris Agreement and to ensure a just transition for affected workers and citizens. Oliver Sartor at the IDDRI runs through the leading examples of coal's phase-out across the world, nation by nation, and warns that coal producing and consuming countries that do not adapt are in danger of … [Read more...]
“Outdated Energy Charter Treaty leaves new economy investments unprotected”
This year the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) is being reviewed by its signatories. It’s the most invoked international investment agreement in the world, and it needs either to be reformed or abandoned, says Sarah Keay-Bright. Created at the end of the cold war, it was designed to protect international energy investments – in a fossil fuel world - from political risk. Today, its wording and mechanisms are failing to protect investors that are vital … [Read more...]
IEEFA Germany: RWE’s coal phaseout compensation demands defy market prices
How much should the coal producers be compensated for Germany’s phaseout? RWE wants €1.2bn per GW at least, basing its maths on an EU-approved scheme from 2015. But Gerard Wynn, writing for IEEFA, says too much has changed since then, not least the Paris Agreement and the actual market price for coal assets. By his calculations, the true price should be under €100m per GW down to near zero. Vattenfall and Engie have already taken such a hit. … [Read more...]
Russia to consider ratification of Paris Agreement
In Russia a report on formally joining the climate deal is due for completion by the end of the month. Russia has signed the Paris Agreement but not ratified it, and is the largest GHG emitter of the 13 nations not to have done so. To help change the mindset a key industry lobby has reversed its opposition. They join supporters who warn that non-ratification can now undermine international trade deals, and fossil fuels are inefficient and costly. … [Read more...]
Analysis: BP’s outlook for fossil fuels could be undermined by slowing energy demand
BP’s latest projections, released last week, once again concede that their previous reports have been overestimating fossil fuel consumption and underestimating renewables. Yet BP still predicts total energy demand will grow indefinitely thanks to overall global growth, and fossil fuels will always be needed. But Simon Evans at Carbon Brief shows how these projections contrast starkly with McKinsey’s, who find that the efficiency of renewables … [Read more...]
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese government’s plan to meet the Paris goals
China is leading the energy transition as the world’s largest producer, exporter and installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles. It has a clear lead too in renewable energy patents, ahead of the U.S. and twice that of the EU. But it is also still heavily dependent on coal, the air pollution in its cities is legendary, and the economy is expected to quadruple by 2050. Against this background, Kaare Sandholt, Chief … [Read more...]
New tool to show whether companies’ climate strategy matches their public ambitions
By now we’re used to stats that show what would happen if everyone in the world had the same carbon footprint as a European, or an American, someone in China, or indeed anywhere. According to the consultancy right. based on science, they have now created a way of modelling the same projections, except for specific companies. The model also number-crunches a company's climate strategy to work out whether they are going to help or hinder the race … [Read more...]
The compelling case for carbon capture and storage
By 2040 60% of primary energy will still come from fossil fuels, says the IEA. That means Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) must be part of the technology mix to hold back climate change. Yet today there are only 18 CCS facilities in operation, with 25 in the pipeline. We’ll need at least 2,000 by 2040. Brad Page, CEO of the Global CCS Institute, lays out the reasons why we have no time to lose. The World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos … [Read more...]
A grassroots fightback against Trump and U.S. Oil & Gas is underway
As the 116th Congress commences, in the wake of dire reports from climate scientists, the debate over U.S. climate policies has taken a welcome turn towards bold solutions. Capitol Hill is alive once again with policy proposals that edge towards the scale required to address the crisis we’re in. A new study by Kelly Trout of Oil Change International, along with 17 partner organisations, makes it clear that managing a rapid and equitable decline … [Read more...]
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