Writing for Carbon Brief, Duncan McLaren at Lancaster University runs through the history of climate negotiations to show that, over “five phases”, the continuous overhauling of models and target-setting have always resulted in promises to reverse emissions sometime in the future, a poor substitute for the real job of cutting emissions now. His main criticism is aimed at future carbon capture (CCS, BECCS) and net-zero-by-2050 policies: anything … [Read more...]
Developing nations: Efficiency is cheaper than Coal in Indonesia
Developing economies face a particularly big challenge in reducing emissions. Their economies are growing rapidly, industrialising and urbanising. Their populations surely deserve the same rewards of wealth that the rich countries – the historical and per capita big emitters - have experienced. Can they get there without all the emissions? Indonesia believes so, committing itself to 29% unconditional emissions reductions by 2030. Virginie … [Read more...]
Re-shaping the EU ETS as a safety net, not a driver
The EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) has struggled to cope with the current economic crisis which has caused a drop in the European carbon price, while the expected drastic drop in 2020 emissions will only add to the existing surplus of allowances. This highlights how necessary it is to reform the mechanism for managing this surplus or even to implement a carbon floor price, explain Charlotte Vailles at I4CE and Nicolas Berghmans at IDDRI. They … [Read more...]
Why a Carbon Border Tax? Because existing tariffs favour dirty over clean imports
Carbon border adjustments are carbon taxes imposed on carbon intensive imports that have not been carbon-taxed at source. It’s a good way to penalise “dirty” goods and remove any competitive advantage the exporter gains from not paying for its pollution. Regions across the world are trying to figure out the best way – how, when, if at all - to roll them out. But Joseph Shapiro, writing for the Energy Institute at Haas, points out that the … [Read more...]
IEA projections 2020: energy demand plunges but Renewables still grow at Gas, Coal’s expense
The IEA has made its projections for the impact of the pandemic lockdown on energy demand in 2020 (they say it’s too early for them to assess anything more long term), and its implications for the different generation types. This article summarises their special Global Energy Review 2020, published at the end of last week. It assumes that lockdowns are eased this year and growth gradually returns. With that, global energy demand will fall 6% in … [Read more...]
Coal exit saves money when public health, land degradation costs added – analysis
Coal is cheap. In countries historically reliant on it, as well as emerging economies still building plants, switching to cleaner energy just doesn’t seem to add up. That’s when you’re only looking at your national energy system costs. But the externality costs of air pollution, public health and a degraded local environment are rarely factored in to the equation. When they are, explains Sebastian Rauner writing for Carbon Brief, abandoning coal … [Read more...]
Bounceback or Recession? Modelling the impact on electricity prices to 2025
Carlos Perez Linkenheil at Energy Brainpool models three scenarios to understand the factors that are having the biggest impact on – and thereby make predictions for - electricity prices, revenues, energy source merit order, and emissions in the EU. Other parameters in the scope of their analysis include oil prices, gas prices, commodities markets, carbon taxes, and the EUA/emissions market. Clearly, collapsing prices are profoundly distorting … [Read more...]
Stimulus opportunity: Hand all carbon taxes to households
Governments worldwide now have the opportunity to radically rethink how household consumption can be stimulated, and where that money can come from. And every serious politician knows a radical change in fiscal policy is a rare opportunity to shape perceptions and values. This could be that moment for carbon taxes. Gerard Wynn at IEEFA first notes the success they have had in reducing emissions in the EU. With a rise in the CO2 price on the … [Read more...]
Behaviour Change: Covid-19 lockdown kicks open the door to a net-zero pathway
Working from home and minimal travel are “no brainer” ways to drastically reduce emissions. They’ve never been tried on a nationwide scale anywhere. Now they are, everywhere. Everyone is doing their best to make it work. Next, food waste should also be in decline, hopefully. Even if panic stockpiling happens, people’s mindsets are being changed as they try to use everything they’ve bought. The act of re-thinking what and how much we eat, in every … [Read more...]
IEA: Three ways governments can keep Renewables growth on track
Before the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was set to be another record year for renewables installations. That is now looking very unlikely. Heymi Bahar at the IEA identifies three main challenges facing the growth of renewables due to the global economic consequences of the pandemic: Supply chain disruptions, anywhere, will surely lead to delays in completing projects everywhere; Compounding those delays, major renewables incentives expire at the … [Read more...]
Will China build more Coal to stimulate the economy?
Could China ramp up coal generation – of the order of hundreds of GW by 2030 - as part of its efforts to stimulate its economy and recover from the coronavirus slump? The thinking is that building a coal plant converts faster into economic growth than the equivalent spent on renewables. In the previous decade, building coal plants was an effective part of China’s economic growth plan that secured its place as the world’s second largest economy. … [Read more...]
Covid-19 and the EU car industry: any support should lock in EV targets
The coronavirus slump has come suddenly and hit hard. The deep thinking has already begun on the economics needed to turn around that slump without damaging our rising emissions ambitions. Julia Poliscanova at Transport & Environment looks at the car industry. Some have called for the new CO2 standards coming in 2020 to be postponed (though, notably, VW and BMW still support them). She explains that total car sales were already declining in … [Read more...]
Biogas and Biomethane’s untapped potential across the world
The IEA’s World Energy Outlooks have no doubt that electrification alone cannot meet our climate goals. That’s why natural gas continues to play a major role. But biogas and biomethane have the potential to replace 20% of that gas, says the IEA’s special report “Outlook for biogas and biomethane: Prospects for organic growth”. At present only a fraction of that is being utilised. Here the IEA summarises their comprehensive report. Costs are the … [Read more...]
New EU Industrial Strategy focuses on emissions, but is it enough?
This month the European Commission released its new EU Industrial Strategy to set the direction of travel for the EU economy in the context of the European Green Deal. Energy-intensive industries - like steel, cement, aluminium, paper and chemicals - account for roughly 17% of EU emissions and have struggled to reduce them in recent years. But Johanna Lehne at E3G doubts the strategy is enough to meet the ambition of becoming the first … [Read more...]
Construction emissions: “mass wood” prototypes halve CO2, rapid modular deployment, 18 stories
Building and construction emissions account for two-thirds of the global total, with one tenth coming from the construction phase alone. David Chandler at MIT reviews their research, in collaboration with a range of specialist companies, into wooden buildings. Their construction emissions should be as low as half that of concrete or steel. The key is the development of large scale, cross-laminated “mass wood”. Factory built modules can be … [Read more...]
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