This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This year’s WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated “Stated Policies Scenario” (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new “Delayed Recovery Scenario” (DRS: due to Covid), an updated “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS: what’s needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new “Net Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
Are 1.5°C scenarios supplanting “Business As Usual” as the new benchmark?
The world energy outlooks published annually by the IEA, BP and DNV GL look very different this year. 1.5°C scenarios are being taken much more seriously. Could it be because of the trauma of Covid-19, or the extraordinary – though still insufficient – success of renewables coupled with the rising ambition of climate-aware governments and their policies? Either way, they are helping to shift the debate away from the mainstream “business as usual” … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is “peak oil” going to happen? Will the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
Net Zero by 2050 technically and economically achievable, says Energy Transitions Commission report
Making Mission Possible, the latest report by the Energy Transitions Commission, describes a net-zero world by mid-century as technically and economically possible. The solutions are already available or close to being brought to market. What is still missing is the will to embrace, rapidly and at scale, the inevitable disruption that will ultimately deliver net-zero emissions, lower air pollution, cheaper energy bills, create new jobs and raise … [Read more...]
BP Outlook 2020: “peak oil” has already happened
BP’s latest Outlook predicts – for the first time - that oil saw its peak in 2019. In each of BP’s Outlooks, published annually since 2011, they have revised their predictions for the global energy landscape to 2050 as new data comes in. The growth of clean energy and the changing shape of climate policies have seen each successive forecast increase the share of renewables at the expense of fossil fuels. This year even gas has seen its prospects … [Read more...]
BP’s world energy review: 2019 saw clean electricity match coal
Simon Evans at Carbon Brief summarises BP’s 69th edition of its influential annual statistical review of world energy, looking at 2019. Overall, total energy demand rose, though slower than usual. Renewables were the largest source of new energy, but were closely followed by oil and gas. Coal use dropped again, the fourth drop in six years, thanks to historic declines in the EU and the US. But continued growth in SE Asia, China and India leaves … [Read more...]
The PAC Scenario: net-zero by 2040 to meet Europe’s Paris goals
The EU is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement obligations on emissions and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. CAN Europe and the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) present their Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario, designed to do just that. It’s been created through the careful analysis of contributions from more than 150 stakeholders including NGOs, scientists, industry and grid operators. Jörg Mühlenhoff at CAN Europe … [Read more...]
IRENA’s Global Renewables Outlook and how Europe can lead the way
If the coronavirus slump has knocked everything off track IRENA’s first ever Global Renewables Outlook is a timely reminder of what that track should look like. It can help policymakers design stimuli packages that will get us back onto it, and even accelerate the transition. IRENA’s Gayathri Prakash, Nicholas Wagner and Ricardo Gorini run through the comprehensive report’s main recommendations. Annual investment, shares and GW targets to 2030 … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
IEA’s WEO 2019 scenarios won’t hit the Paris targets, again. It must start telling us what will
As always, the energy world is abuzz with reactions to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, published yesterday. As always, it’s getting plenty of criticism from those who say it lacks ambition, and in doing so will again get quoted to justify support for continued reliance on fossil fuels, explains Kelly Trout at Oil Change International. The IEA’s most ambitious pathway, the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), gives a 66% chance of … [Read more...]
Scientist’s view: recent energy & environmental news 2/11/19
Energy Friends, once again, a cycle with a lot of news. Here is a digest of the latest edition of the Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions (AWED) monthly newsletter. For the full version click here. … [Read more...]
EU energy sector set for crucial state aid decisions in 2019
2018 was a watershed year for state aid regulations in the EU energy sector. A number of landmark rulings by the European Commission towards different member states have challenged the legality of various state aid measures and prompted governments to reconsider mechanisms for supporting domestic energy sectors. In particular, early-stage capacity mechanism procedures for many member states have been scrutinised, albeit favourably, and … [Read more...]
Renewables for remote mines power supply in Africa gaining momentum
In the last few years, more and more mining companies have adopted wind and solar systems to reduce their energy costs at remote off-grid mines. In this first phase, the initial focus was on the integration capabilities as miners were afraid that adding intermittent renewables such as solar and wind could affect the reliability of power supply and even lead to production losses. In various microgrid applications, renewables combined with … [Read more...]
Cañete: CCS will play a vital role in delivering a net-zero emissions economy
Commissioner Cañete confirmed this week that natural gas and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be central to achieving a competitive and climate-neutral economy, notably in closing the circle for the energy intensive sectors for which other solutions for decarbonisation do not exist. Moreover, combined with renewable biomass, CCS could create negative emissions compensating for remaining CO2. Eurogas Secretary General, James Watson, … [Read more...]
Too “low-hanging fruit” is not sweet enough (and eventually neither clean nor cheap)!
At a lunch debate organised by the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) on “The costs of a low level of ambition in greening the heating and cooling sector” and hosted by EUFORES President MEP Jeppe Kofod on 30 January, representatives from industry, civil society, the European Commission (EC) and MEPs from several countries and political groups (Jeppe Kofod, Bendt Bendtsen, Theresa Griffin, Jo Leinen, Gesine Meissner and Paul Rübig) … [Read more...]
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