The Ukraine crisis has had an immediate impact on Europeâs strategy for energy supply security. And this weekâs sudden halting of gas supplies by Russia to Poland and Bulgaria only emphasises the urgency. Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini, Luis Janeiro and SeĂĄn Collins at IRENA look at the best options, basing their findings on their latest âWorld Energy Transitions Outlookâ, published in March, that lays out a routemap for the next eight years for … [Read more...]
U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2022 reveals no reduction in emissions to 2050
The U.S. Department of Energyâs Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its influential 2022 âAnnual Energy Outlookâ (AEO2022) which projects the electricity mix over the next 30 years. (The modelling takes policies and global conditions as they were in November 2021, so the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not accounted for, nor any future unforeseeable shocks, and assumes no new policies to 2050). Sandra Sattler at the Union of … [Read more...]
All estimates of the âcostâ of climate action should include the savings and benefits
Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC's Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur lâEnvironnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more...]
Lifting 3.6bn people out of poverty would raise global emissions by 18%
One criticism of the energy transition is that efforts made by the rich world will be negated by the rise in wealth and consumption in the developing world. A new study puts figures on that expected increase in emissions. Eradicating all âextreme povertyâ â by raising hundreds of millions above the US$1.90 per day threshold â would drive up global carbon emissions by less than 1%. Lifting 3.6 billion people over the poverty line of US$5.50 per … [Read more...]
Corporations, Cities, Financial Institutions: can private collective action plug the global emissions gap?
Non-state actors - corporations, cities, and financial institutions â are making their own impact on emissions reductions. We donât just have to rely on governments, explain James Newcomb, Jun Ukita Shepard and Laurens Speelman at RMI. Case studies of harnessing private collective action already exist, and they are significant. Take Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). In the U.S., corporates ramped up annual renewables procurements from 0.1 GW to … [Read more...]
IEA WEO 2021 message to COP26: 40% of clean energy goals will cut costs
The IEAâs latest World Energy Outlook was published on Wednesday. This yearâs WEO-2021 is released earlier than usual to inform COP26 and, for the first time, is available for free to ensure the widest possible audience. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief offers his summary of the 386-page report, quoting relevant numbers and charts. He first points to the new scenario, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE), as the IEAâs recognition that this is what … [Read more...]
18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree
A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors â these account … [Read more...]
The IEA explains its new âNet-Zero Emissions by 2050â roadmap
Today the IEA publishes its new special report, âNet Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sectorâ, its deepest dive so far into whatâs needed for a successful global transition. It analyses the options as well as the socio-economic, behavioural and environmental impacts they will have globally. Here, Laura Cozzi (Chief Energy Modeller) and Timur GĂŒl (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division) at the IEA summarise the key principles … [Read more...]
The standard models overestimate the cost of the low carbon transition
Why have forecasts for new low-carbon energy consistently underestimated their cost reductions? The IEA has, famously, repeatedly had to raise its estimates for solarâs contribution every year since 2009, and now describes it as the âcheapest electricity in historyâ. Writing for Carbon Brief, Alexandra Poncia at Arup and Paul Drummond and Michael Grubb at University College London explain that standard models focus on âtechnology-pushâ policies, … [Read more...]
Outlook USA: even with battery costs, Wind and Solar can undercut Coal and Gas by 2023-24
IEEFA has published its U.S. Power Sector Outlook 2021. Its authors, Dennis Wamsted, Seth Feaster and David Schlissel summarise and explain the projections. They say that coal and gas are set to become the biggest losers as renewable generation climbs quickly. The future for wind and solar â coupled with storage to address intermittency - is looking very good. They present estimates from NextEra (the largest renewable energy developer in the … [Read more...]
China: decoupling GDP growth from rising emissions
To set up this weekâs important online event (Tuesday 13th & Wednesday 14th April) âChina: Carbon Neutral by 2060 -EFFICIENCY FIRSTâ we have an overview of Chinaâs energy transition. Everyone agrees its performance is critical for the world to achieve the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5C by 2050. China made significant progress in 2020 with policy frameworks, renewable capacity additions and EVs, but it also added 38 GW of new … [Read more...]
New net-zero pledges from China, US, EU and others can meet our climate goals, says UNEP. ButâŠ
Existing national commitments imply that todayâs emissions will simply plateau, remaining only slightly below 2019 levels by 2030. However, according to the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) emissions gap report, the new commitments from China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK, Joe Bidenâs US and others are âbroadly consistentâ with the Paris Agreementâs 1.5C goal for 2050. But commitments arenât policy, warns UNEP, and only real change … [Read more...]
The IEAâs World Energy Outlook 2020 at a glance
This month the IEA published its annual flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO). Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool picks out his highlights. This yearâs WEO has four scenarios, two of them new: an updated âStated Policies Scenarioâ (STEPS: what governments have promised), the new âDelayed Recovery Scenarioâ (DRS: due to Covid), an updated âSustainable Development Scenarioâ (SDS: whatâs needed to meet the Paris targets), and the new âNet Zero Emissions … [Read more...]
Are 1.5°C scenarios supplanting âBusiness As Usualâ as the new benchmark?
The world energy outlooks published annually by the IEA, BP and DNV GL look very different this year. 1.5°C scenarios are being taken much more seriously. Could it be because of the trauma of Covid-19, or the extraordinary â though still insufficient â success of renewables coupled with the rising ambition of climate-aware governments and their policies? Either way, they are helping to shift the debate away from the mainstream âbusiness as usualâ … [Read more...]
World Energy Outlook 2020: IEA responds to some difficult questions
The IEA has issued an FAQ to try to answer some persistent questions and criticisms about their annual World Energy Outlooks (WEO). How come the growth of solar and wind have been consistently underestimated? When is âpeak oilâ going to happen? Will the IEAâs Sustainable Development Scenario limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C this century? Is it realistic? Why has a âNet Zero Emissions by 2050â (NZE2050) pathway been added this year? Do … [Read more...]
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