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New U.S. study: damage per ton of CO2 costs $185, not the official $51

October 7, 2022 by Maximilian Auffhammer

Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas reviews a new paper that suggests CO2 causes over three times as much damage in dollar terms as the figure currently used by the US government, $51 per ton. The new study shows $185 per ton of CO2 as the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). The updated model is superior to previous models, says Auffhammer. It’s also open source, so anyone can use it, criticise it, and tweak the numbers to get … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: agriculture, CO2, damage, emissions, Energy, modelling, mortality, SCC, SeaLevel, US

Interpreting the Paris Agreement: the 1.5C and 2C targets are not two different options

June 30, 2022 by Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti at Humboldt University of Berlin, writing for Carbon Brief, want to clear up confusion over the 1.5C and 2C pathways. Their concern is that some people are interpreting the Paris Agreement’s wording as two separate targets, one simply better than the other. But they should not be seen as two different options. The objective of “well below 2C” must be seen by modellers and policy-makers as a clear … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: emissions, FitFor55, ghg, modelling, netzero, Paris2015, pathways, scenarios

Latest U.S. modelling shows Battery Storage can support an 80% Renewables grid by 2050

May 18, 2022 by Madeline Geocaris

NREL’s latest Storage Futures Study concludes that battery storage should be able to support an 80% renewables grid mix in the U.S. by 2050. Madeline Geocaris at NREL explains how they modelled hundreds of future scenarios to accurately represent the value of diurnal (<12 hours) battery energy storage. The high-storage scenarios made different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar PV, and natural gas. 15 storage … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Storage Tagged With: batteries, buildings, costs, distributed, diurnal, gas, lithium, modelling, PV, rooftop, scenarios, solar, storage, US, wind

What’s best? Building Solar panels that last 30 years, or are short-lived easy-to-recycle and upgrade

April 27, 2022 by Harrison Dreves

The good news is that PV modules last so long – 30 years – that we don’t have to worry about recycling for a while. The bad news is that means we’re not thinking about the alternative pathway of deliberately building modules that last only a few years yet can be easily recycled and improved. Harrison Dreves at NREL describes the data-gathering and creation of a modelling tool that quantifies the flow of materials, energy, and carbon in the PV … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Renewables Tagged With: circular, investment, jobs, modelling, modules, PV, recycling, solar

An open-source standardised toolkit for modelling Marine Energy

April 13, 2022 by Caitlin McDermott-Murphy

New innovations need a lot of high quality modelling. That means collecting real world data, then coding the programs that run the models. This is labour intensive and takes time to do properly. The modelling needs to be standardised too, otherwise direct comparisons between competing ideas are virtually impossible. Caitlin McDermott-Murphy at NREL describes the latest version of their Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT) for modelling a wide … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Renewables Tagged With: Coding, Energy, marine, modelling, ocean, river, standardisation, US

All estimates of the ‘cost’ of climate action should include the savings and benefits

March 29, 2022 by Alexandre Köberle, Toon Vandyck, Céline Guivarch and Joeri Rogelj

Too many climate mitigation scenarios calculate the cost of that transition without measuring the savings and benefits, explain Alexandre Köberle and Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London, Toon Vandyck at the EC's Joint Research Centre, and Celine Guivarch at the Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Developpement, writing for Carbon Brief. This leads to a pessimistic view of the challenges ahead, and public aversion to … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Energy Outlooks Tagged With: agriculture, biodiversity, Climate, health, inequality, infrastructure, IPCC, modelling, productivity, scenarios, transition, wellbeing

Open-source modelling for the energy transition and climate change

February 22, 2022 by Helen Farrell

Modelling tools are becoming increasingly important to policy makers for creating transition pathways. More detail is required as the pace of change accelerates. Yet complexity is increasing as new technologies and solutions come online. And those models are needed at the local level, not just the national and global. It’s why the EU is funding, through Horizon 2020, a range of projects to not only make those tools a success, but make them freely … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: BehaviourChange, COACCH, EU, EUCalc, Horizon2020, LOCOMOTION, modelling, Open Entrance, pathways, scenarios, SENTINEL

Grid-scale modelling of Distributed Energy Resources and dynamic pricing for all customers

February 7, 2022 by James Conca

Smart grids can solve multiple problems now and throughout the lifetime of the energy transition. The supply from hundreds (existing + new wind, solar, etc.) and ultimately millions (rooftop solar, EV batteries) of power sources can be matched in real time with demand from all major customer devices (air conditioners, water heaters, batteries, EVs). Dynamic pricing keeps the peaks low and the troughs high. It takes the pressure off total load, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Grids Tagged With: AI, batteries, dynamic, ERCOT, EVs, grids, HVAC, modelling, PNNL, pricing, rooftop, Shanghai, smart, solar, Spokane, Stem, storage, Texas, US, wind

Using ENTSO-E’s modelling for China’s grid expansion

January 17, 2022 by Helen Farrell

The EU and China have similar challenges when expanding their complex grid network. Both have large populations and multiple borders (China has 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two administrative regions). Both must rapidly add clean power whilst ensuring energy security at the lowest cost. Helen Farrell at ECECP describes their project to use European ENTSO-E modelling tools to assess scenarios for China. One key … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Grids Tagged With: China, Covid, electricity, ENTSOE, EU, grids, modelling, networks, prices, renewables, security

Intelligent, flexible Sector Coupling in cities can double the potential for Wind and Solar

December 16, 2021 by Yong Chen and Dolf Gielen

This week the European Commission tabled the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) which should accelerate the decarbonisation of buildings. Buildings and cities play a key role in the energy transition. And the target high shares of variable renewable power supply will be much more easily achieved if the sectors using them display demand flexibility. In essence, that means using or storing the excess wind and solar generation … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Buildings, Energy, Renewables Tagged With: buildings, charging, China, Cities, coupling, demand, EC, epbd, EVs, flexibility, heating, HVAC, hydrogen, modelling, sector, smart, solar, storage, thermal, VRE, wind

Politicians need net-zero scenarios that include socio-economic obstacles and solutions

November 18, 2021 by Henri Waisman and Patrick Criqui

Standard net-zero scenario modelling carefully analyses the possible impacts of technological solutions and their obstacles. What they’re missing is the detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of these scenarios on the lives of citizens. That means jobs, incomes, energy bills, air quality, and regional economic performance. In other words, the politics on the ground. Misunderstood, and perfectly sensible pathways will come up against … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: COP26, elections, France, jobs, JustTransition, modelling, pathways, Politics, scenarios

Climate change, “wind droughts” and the implications for Wind energy

November 15, 2021 by Hannah Bloomfield

What effect will changing trends in regional wind speeds have on the future of wind energy? Very large, considering that a small change in wind speed has a big effect on the power output of a turbine (it’s related to the cube of the wind speed). Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Bristol first looks at the “wind drought” experienced in Europe this year which saw SSE in the UK report a 32% drop in power from its renewable assets. Meanwhile, … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Renewables Tagged With: drought, EU, Europe, IPCC, modelling, scenarios, speeds, UK, wind

How multi-scenario ‘emulator’ models are improving climate change projections

October 1, 2021 by Chris Smith

State-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the flow of energy, moisture and chemicals through the atmosphere, ocean and land surface in unprecedented detail. But the data processing is so demanding that each scenario takes considerable time and expense to run, needing powerful supercomputers and teams of scientists and programmers to produce the models and analyse the results. “Emulators” are much simpler models that can run on a … [Read more...]

Filed Under: Energy, Policies Tagged With: AR6, atmosphere, emulators, ESM, IPCC, modelling, predictions, scenarios, temperature

Most read this week

  • Biofuel is approaching a feedstock crunch. How bad? And what must be done? by IEA | posted on January 23, 2023
  • EU ETS and CBAM: what the big update to emissions trading rules means for Europe’s key sectors by Simon Göss | posted on January 16, 2023
  • Can Aluminium-air batteries outperform Li-ion for EVs? by Helena Uhde | posted on September 8, 2021
  • Gravity Batteries: any nation can do it at scale using rocks by Simon Read | posted on July 27, 2022
  • 10 Carbon Capture methods compared: costs, scalability, permanence, cleanness by Ella Adlen | posted on November 11, 2019
  • Micro-nuclear reactors: up to 20MW, portable, safer by Christina Nunez | posted on April 22, 2021
  • EU Energy Outlook to 2060: how will power prices and revenues develop for wind, solar, gas, hydrogen + more by Alex Schmitt | posted on December 6, 2022
  • Europe needs a Regional Green Bank to fulfil its Green Deal and match the U.S. by Esmeralda Colombo | posted on January 20, 2023
  • Concrete: 8% of global emissions and rising. Which innovations can achieve net zero by 2050? by Ben Skinner | posted on January 24, 2023
  • How to sell Heat Pumps to the public in Europe by Helena Uhde | posted on January 19, 2023
  • Hydrogen production in 2050: how much water will 74EJ need? by Herib Blanco | posted on July 22, 2021
  • Twenty-first century energy wars: how oil and gas are fuelling global conflicts by Michael T. Klare | posted on July 15, 2014
  • What’s stopping even bigger Wind Turbines? Blade speed and flexing? More likely manufacturing and installation capacity by Simon Hogg | posted on January 18, 2023
  • What’s best for Hydrogen transport: ammonia, liquid hydrogen, LOHC or pipelines? by Herib Blanco | posted on May 5, 2022
  • Making Hydrogen will consume 2% of total global renewable capacity growth by 2027 by IEA | posted on January 17, 2023
  • EU energy ministers unable to agree on biofuels policy by Karel Beckman | posted on December 15, 2013
  • Why hydrogen fuel cell cars are not competitive — from a hydrogen fuel cell expert by Zachary Shahan | posted on June 17, 2016
  • Smart Glasses: experts can monitor and advise on power plant inspections anywhere in the world by Christoph Gatzen | posted on January 25, 2023
  • The 10 big problems with simply replacing fossil cars with electric by Schalk Cloete | posted on December 6, 2021
  • 2023 lookahead for Sustainable Finance: EU Taxonomy, ESG ratings, corporate disclosure laws, Europe’s “IRA” by Luca Bonaccorsi | posted on January 12, 2023

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Recent Posts

Make Hydrogen in developing nations: share prosperity while meeting our climate goals

Smart Glasses: experts can monitor and advise on power plant inspections anywhere in the world

Concrete: 8% of global emissions and rising. Which innovations can achieve net zero by 2050?

Biofuel is approaching a feedstock crunch. How bad? And what must be done?

Europe needs a Regional Green Bank to fulfil its Green Deal and match the U.S.

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