Gas emissions must be halved (and coal eliminated) by 2030 to meet President Biden’s goal of a carbon free power sector by 2035. The problem is that gas additions are half the price of new wind and solar installations. Though the clean energy champions are still getting cheaper, so are gas additions. Nikos Tsafos at the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the policy options over the next decade for the U.S. The stark fact is … [Read more...]
Record global power sector emissions by 2022, because Renewables aren’t growing fast enough
The IEA is forecasting that renewables will cover only half the projected increase in global electricity demand in 2021 and 2022. Despite renewables’ impressive growth, coal and gas will be needed to cover the rest. That means emissions will rise to record levels. That will be the reverse of the IEA’s (and many others’) “Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050” pathway, where three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 come from the … [Read more...]
Hydrogen production in 2050: how much water will 74EJ need?
There’s no point ramping up hydrogen if other resource constraints are going to bring it to a halt. Here, Herib Blanco at IRENA summarises their research into how much water will be needed in the production of hydrogen through electrolysis (i.e. from water) and the costs involved. A wide range of analyses have been reviewed to calculate the amount of water used during the hydrogen production, and by the energy source used to power it (renewables … [Read more...]
Wind, Solar: continuing cost declines will help meet rising renewables targets
The EC’s “Fit for 55” proposals include the raising of the EU’s 2030 target for total energy produced from renewable sources to 40%. Much of the rest of the world will likely raise its targets at some point too. Continuing to cut the cost of renewable energy generation will be essential to make that happen, and take pressure off all the other associated costs of supporting its integration into the energy system. Michael Taylor at IRENA summarises … [Read more...]
U.S. can’t hit net-zero power target by 2035 without Advanced Nuclear
President Biden’s target of net-zero power generation by 2035 will be extremely challenging, if not impossible, argues Charles Merlin writing for IFRI. He says the best chance of achieving it is through advanced nuclear reactors, though the 2030+ switch-on dates of the new technology still won’t guarantee meeting Biden’s timescales. Why should the U.S. drive for advanced nuclear? Because of the known limitations of the other technologies. Wind … [Read more...]
How to keep Wind and Solar profitable as its electricity gets cheaper
Success can cause problems. As wind and solar penetration increases the electricity it generates gets cheaper. If it stops being profitable we’ll stop building it, thus endangering our emissions-free goals. Dev Millstein at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory summarises their research paper that looks at how market value changed over time at 2,100 utility-scale power plants across major power markets in the U.S., using 2019 data. It’s clear … [Read more...]
How to grow grid-scale U.S. Battery capacity to 125GW (or even 680GW) by 2050
Grid-Scale U.S. storage capacity could reach 125GW by 2050, or even as much as 680GW, according to research from NREL. Almost all today, under 25GW, comes from pumped hydro which has probably reached its limit so the future is batteries. Growth depends on commercial viability, so the research led by NREL has modelled what services storage can supply, the main three being firm capacity, energy time-shifting and operating reserves. The sets of … [Read more...]
Convolutional neural networks: facial recognition AI applied to analysis and design of Advanced Nuclear Reactors
Scientists are looking for new ways to predict how materials survive high temperatures, pressures and corrosion levels, and design new materials that can do so. Temperatures can reach 800 Celsius in parts of solar energy plants and advanced nuclear reactors. Dave Bukey at the Argonne National Laboratory looks at research that uses convolutional neural networks – a type of AI – to uncover patterns in huge data sets. The method is over 2,000 faster … [Read more...]
China’s energy system: record renewables expansion, but coal still dominates
Lara Dombrowski and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool give the latest headline figures for China’s energy system. In 2020 electricity generation in China went up by 298 TWh – an increase equal to 60% of Germany’s total. That year, renewables capacity increased more than ever before. That made China responsible for nearly 50% of global renewable capacity additions. But China has higher CO2 emissions than all the OECD countries combined. And continued … [Read more...]
Don’t commit to Hydrogen pipelines yet? Trucks can do the same job more flexibly
Could trucks be a better way to transport (and even store) hydrogen than pipelines? Yes, says a research team led by the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI), mainly because of the flexibility they offer particularly in the early stages of the hydrogen roll-out. Kathryn O'Neill at MIT explains the findings. A pipeline can take 10 years to build, during which time the locations where the supply and demand must be met are likely to have moved, given the … [Read more...]
Germany: will the end of feed-in tariffs mean the end of citizens-as-energy-producers
Germany’s feed-in tariffs ran for 20 years. The guaranteed electricity price and connection to the grid incentivised ordinary citizens and communities to invest in smaller scale solar, biomass and wind generation for their homes and local areas. But that guaranteed price is now too expensive, and so the tariffs are ending and lowest-bid auctions are taking over. It’s the bigger players who are winning those auctions, and some of the existing … [Read more...]
Case study Italy: Optimising emissions cuts means we’ll need “grey” and “blue” Hydrogen too
Europe is committing to hydrogen. The ideal is “green” hydrogen, produced from renewable energy alone. Carlo Stagnaro at Istituto Bruno Leoni analyses emissions and costs in Italy to make the case for policy-makers to consider including “grey” and “blue” hydrogen in their strategies too. Because grids are far from green today, a new wind and solar plant will reduce more emissions by feeding the grid than by making hydrogen. “Grey” hydrogen, … [Read more...]
What patents tell us: which countries, what sectors, are the clean energy innovators?
Today’s solutions cannot give us a successful transition on their own. That’s why the innovations coming down the pipeline are so important. One way to measure what, and who, is innovating is to look at the number of patents being filed for low carbon energy (LCE), explains Sean Fleming writing for the World Economic Forum. He summarises the latest report from the European Patent Office and the IEA, “Patents and the energy transition: Global … [Read more...]
Does new German target mean Coal gone by 2029, Renewables 65% by 2030?
The stiffer emissions targets introduced this month to Germany’s Climate Protection Law - CO2 emissions from the energy industry must fall to 108 Mt by 2030 instead of 175 – point to an even earlier coal phase-out date of 2029, with renewables generating 65% of electricity by 2030. The existing plan had meant coal must be gone by 2038. Michael ClauĂźner, Carlos Perez-Linkenheil and Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool explain why, using their modelling … [Read more...]
The IEA explains its new “Net-Zero Emissions by 2050” roadmap
Today the IEA publishes its new special report, “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”, its deepest dive so far into what’s needed for a successful global transition. It analyses the options as well as the socio-economic, behavioural and environmental impacts they will have globally. Here, Laura Cozzi (Chief Energy Modeller) and Timur GĂĽl (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division) at the IEA summarise the key principles … [Read more...]
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