November’s COP26 will arguably be the most important since the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. By then, all signatory nations are required to submit their new and improved nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that set a credible pathway towards reducing their emissions. So far only the Marshall Islands, Suriname, and Norway have done so. Lucien Chabason and Lola Vallejo at IDDRI ask whether the UK teams behind their new COP26 President, … [Read more...]
Nuclear in 2020: a global look ahead at policy, financing, politics, by country
Dan Yurman presents his worldwide review of nuclear’s prospects. 19 nations are covered. He explains while some countries are planning to scale down nuclear, like South Korea and France, some are increasing investment, like China. Others remain stuck over policy, pricing, financing and politics (e.g. Japan, the U.S.). Exporters of plants, led by Russia, are making moves – not always easily - in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. R&D … [Read more...]
Predicting global air conditioning demand, by nation
Predicting future energy demand is difficult, more so when you must account for the choices made by individual households spread all across the globe. Air conditioning is a case in point. To tackle this, Lucas Davis led a team at the Haas School of Business to quantify each nation’s need for air conditioning, and rank them (219 countries and 1,692 cities). To get a nation’s “total CDD exposure” they, in essence, worked out their average cooling … [Read more...]
India: coal plummets, renewables stepping in
In 2018, 80% of India’s total energy lending went to renewables. Coal got the rest, a major fall compared to 2017. No wonder, given coal plants have been running at below 60% utilisation for two years with the operators suffering huge losses. Renewables are now undercutting coal and getting cheaper. And shortages in water – needed for plant cooling – just add to their woes. Vibhuti Garg at IEEFA catalogues the problems, then describes the … [Read more...]
Peak coal on the horizon: a country-by-country review
Though the global coal fleet still increased by 17GW in the first half of 2019, net of retirements, the pipeline is definitely shrinking. Two thirds of proposed projects never even get started. Notably, in China existing coal plants have been running, on average, only 50% of the time since 2015, evidence of a large excess of capacity. But is it enough? The IPCC’s pathway to 1.5C requires unabated coal power generation to fall by 55-70% by 2030 … [Read more...]
Developing world urbanisation: a great opportunity for smartgrids, buildings efficiency
Rapid urbanisation in the developing world means millions of new buildings are going up. Now is the time to make sure they are energy efficient from the start, avoiding the major “rich world” headache of retrofitting. Given most of the developing world exists in hotter climates, cooling – unchecked - could account for as much as 40% of final electricity demand in some countries by 2050. To keep a cap on that, efficient buildings and air … [Read more...]
Can India’s 30m grid/diesel irrigation pumps go solar?
The Indian government is looking for effective ways to increase the use of solar powered pumps for small farm irrigation. About 70% of India’s rural households still depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihood, and successful farming usually requires irrigation. Currently, 21m pumps are connected to a primarily fossil fuel grid and 8.8m are diesel while solar has risen to just 130,000, mostly added in the last 5 years. Lelin Thouthang … [Read more...]
GDP – Gross Environmental Damage = actual wealth creation
We all know that GDP measures everything that’s been paid for, both the good and the bad. There have already been studies that try to account for the “bad” GDP that costs us in the long run and so adds less value than stated. Catherine Wolfram, at the Haas School of Business, takes a thoughtful look at Gross Environmental Damage which separates out the kind of GDP that we’re going to have to spend money cleaning up in the future. The GED concept … [Read more...]
India aims for competitively priced superefficient ACs
Cooling represents over 6% of the world’s total final energy consumption, and growing. Of the 2.8bn people living in hot tropical regions only 8% have air conditioners (ACs) - it’s 90% in the US and Japan. With growing affluence, most will buy cheap entry-level ACs, with their low efficiency and polluting refrigerants. To cope, India will need 600GW of new power generation capacity by 2050 – equivalent to the installation of 1,200 coal power … [Read more...]
Coal exit: top Asian banks join Europe, U.S.
Around the world, cheaper renewables, improved technology, and risks over reputation, financial performance and the environment are driving finance away from coal. In the early days it sometimes looked like “greenwash”, but over time commitments have ratcheted up to make it a reality. Europe and the U.S. have already made a good start, and Asia is now catching up. As renewables get cheaper nobody wants to be left holding billions in stranded … [Read more...]
IEA: Global energy investment stabilises at $1.8tn after 3 years of decline
Three consecutive years of declining global energy investment has ended. But it’s not risen, just stabilised at $1.8tn, according to the IEA’s latest report World Energy Investment 2019. To meet the Paris targets investment in efficiency needs to rise substantially, and double by 2030 for renewables: they have stalled for both. To meet soaring global energy demand oil and gas investments need to rise too. That demand is seeing cheap coal still … [Read more...]
IEA: Renewables growth worldwide is stalling
It’s bad enough that 2018 net capacity additions did not exceed 2017’s after two decades of strong growth. It is far more troubling that nobody saw it coming, says the IEA, who have laid out the data and main cause: stop-go policies. 2018's 180 GW is only 60% of what needs to be added each year to meet climate goals. China, the EU, India and Japan all fell back. Only emerging economies, developing countries and the US (slightly) saw growth. … [Read more...]
There’s a limit to raising CO2 taxes. Re-focus on energy innovations to reverse emissions
Stop obsessing about raising CO2 taxes, says Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas. It’s good, but not enough. Why? Textbook economics says if you tax something bad, innovators are incentivised and rewarded for coming up with something better. That’s true for cigarettes (vaping), plastic wrapping (recyclables, biodegradables), traffic (public transport). But there’s a limit with CO2 taxes, says the author. In developing countries … [Read more...]
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
Children today must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
No wonder young people have taken the reins of the climate demonstrations away from the adults. Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief shows that the global budget for avoiding warming of 1.5C or 2C has already been mostly used up. To put that in numbers, if children emit like their parents they’ll exhaust their carbon budget in just 9 years. It’s why emissions must peak in the next few years and then rapidly decline to hit the Paris targets. That’s … [Read more...]
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