To reach net zero by 2050, babies born today must have CO2 footprints ten times smaller over their lifetimes than their parents and grandparents. In rich countries it’ll be fifteen times, while in emerging economies like India and China it’ll be around four times smaller. Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen and Hyeji Kim at the IEA summarise how they have calculated the average allowable lifetime CO2 footprint by year of birth. Taking the two extremes, the … [Read more...]
Can Carbon Offset loopholes be fixed with better evaluation and rules?
Carbon offset programmes rightly get a lot of criticism. There’s plenty of evidence of offsets not delivering all the GHG emissions reductions they are credited for. Though still on the international agenda, should they be ditched? Or can they be improved with better analysis and evaluation, and making that a pre-condition for creating carbon offset credits, asks Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas. She starts by looking at those … [Read more...]
Fulfilling the Global Methane Pledge: “polluter pays”, more electrification, less gas
At COP26 the U.S. and the EU led a global pledge to slash methane emission by 30% by 2030. Methane makes up at least one-quarter of all greenhouse gases, and is more than 80 times more damaging than CO2 over a 20-year period. Success in cutting these emissions would be a major step towards meeting our 1.5°C goals. But far from declining, 2020 saw methane emissions grow at the fastest rate in 40 years. The increased use of natural gas (mostly made … [Read more...]
Record global power sector emissions by 2022, because Renewables aren’t growing fast enough
The IEA is forecasting that renewables will cover only half the projected increase in global electricity demand in 2021 and 2022. Despite renewables’ impressive growth, coal and gas will be needed to cover the rest. That means emissions will rise to record levels. That will be the reverse of the IEA’s (and many others’) “Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050” pathway, where three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 come from the … [Read more...]
Wind, Solar: continuing cost declines will help meet rising renewables targets
The EC’s “Fit for 55” proposals include the raising of the EU’s 2030 target for total energy produced from renewable sources to 40%. Much of the rest of the world will likely raise its targets at some point too. Continuing to cut the cost of renewable energy generation will be essential to make that happen, and take pressure off all the other associated costs of supporting its integration into the energy system. Michael Taylor at IRENA summarises … [Read more...]
Super-efficient space cooling can mitigate 0.5°C of warming by 2100
Space cooling eats up 10% of global electricity use, and by 2050 total energy consumed could triple as ownership takes off in developing countries. It’s why the Global Cooling Prize was launched to find AC designs that will have an 80% lower climate impact, explains John Matson at RMI. The two main design goals were to reduce electricity demand, and use refrigerants with lower global warming potential (GWP) than traditional refrigerant gases. The … [Read more...]
18 energy transition scenarios to watch: where they agree and disagree
A wide range of regions, nations and respected organisations have created net-zero strategies and pathways, but on what do they agree and disagree? Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Ricardo Gorini and Pablo Carvajal at IRENA have done a meta-analysis of 18 recent energy transition scenarios to find out. There is consensus over the main strategies: renewable power generation, and the direct and indirect electrification of end-use sectors – these account … [Read more...]
EU-India cooperation: how to tap the large potential for climate action
India is the world’s fifth largest economy, the second most populous, and over the next few decades is expected to see energy demand grow more than any other country. Ritu Ahuja and Mekhala Sastry at TERI, Abhishek Kaushik at the Centre for Global Environment Research, and Alexandra Deprez and Lola Vallejo at IDDRI look at India’s challenges and which areas show the most potential for partnership with the EU. They focus on five themes: energy, … [Read more...]
Updated NDCs: World committing to 0.5% emissions cuts by 2030. It should be 45%
The latest national climate pledges, submitted over the new year, show that the world is nowhere near meeting our emissions reductions goals. Analysis of the 48 updated “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) submitted so far (everyone must submit by the end of this year), covering nations responsible for 29% of global emissions, shows we will have 0.5% lower emissions in 2030 compared to 2010. That’s way off the target 45% reduction needed. … [Read more...]
Asia’s record Gas prices expose the need for faster market reform
After record lows in mid-2020, Asian spot prices for LNG rose tenfold to reach record highs in January 2021. This volatility is an obstacle to the development of the gas infrastructure that’s essential to the region where demand for gas is growing, explain Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil and Gergely Molnar at the IEA. There were multiple causes for the price spike, including the cold winter, limits to nuclear and coal generation, and outages at regional … [Read more...]
IEA’s “accelerated case” becoming the norm? Global Wind + Solar to overtake Gas and Coal by 2024
The IEA’s 2019 “accelerated case” for renewables is turning into this year’s “main case”. It predicts that Wind and Solar capacity combined will overtake both Gas and Coal globally by 2024. Josh Gabbatiss at Carbon Brief summarises the IEA’s Renewables 2020 report. Within five years, renewables will constitute 1/3 of all electricity generation, equivalent to the combined demand of China and the EU. Virtually all global growth in electricity … [Read more...]
Solar is displacing Coal in India’s electricity market
India is the world’s third largest electricity market and as a fast-growing economy can, according to the IEA, lead the recovery of global energy demand out of the pandemic for the coming decade. Kashish Shah at IEEFA runs through solar’s prospects in India, which hopes to build 450GW of renewable energy by 2030. Solar is getting cheaper. A 2GW auction in June delivered India’s lowest-yet renewable energy tariff at US$31/MWh. That figure could … [Read more...]
The energy transition needs some of the $12tn global Covid stimulus. But much less than you think
Governments worldwide have committed over $12tn to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, spent over the next 5 years. Current estimates say the energy transition needs $1.4tn/year globally between 2020 and 2024 to get us on the path to meet the 1.5oC Paris goal. Clearly, there is an opportunity here. Although support for healthcare systems and the overall economy are the stated priority of governments, much of that $12tn is still not committed. … [Read more...]
Gas oversupply and clean energy’s rise: now is the time to fast-track gas market reforms
Traditional monopolistic and oligopolistic gas markets artificially keep gas prices high, work against competition and efficiency, and have no place in the modern world, say Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Gergely Molnar and Songho Jeon at the IEA. They calculate that gas market reforms in the EU, begun in the mid 1990s, saved the bloc $15bn in 2019. But it typically takes 20 years for such a market to be properly established. The authors explain that … [Read more...]
ANEEL: Thorium-based reactor fuel could revive Nuclear’s fortunes
A public-private consortium backed by the U.S. DoE is developing a new nuclear fuel – a mix of thorium and uranium – that looks like a major advance on the fuels currently in use, says Jim Conca. Called “Advanced Nuclear Energy for Enriched Life” (ANEEL), it has a very high fuel burn-up rate (55,000 MWd/T) compared to the usual uranium (7,000 MWd/T). That high burn-up reduces the waste by over 80%. Less spent fuel means less refuelling, less … [Read more...]