Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germany’s existing “pioneer” wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants – launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they can’t find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germany’s energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Lithuania shows way to integrated EU energy future
As Lithuania and the Baltic Nations turn away from nuclear power and towards increased solar and wind energy production, one city is shifting towards a new energy future. Elektrenai, or Electricity City, once powered an entire nation. Its three, soaring red-and-white smokestacks were its pride and joy, and heralded in popular songs and propaganda films. The city around the power plant was built to house the workers who ensured enough oil and … [Read more...]
Britain has shifted 30% of its electricity away from fossil fuels in just nine years
Britain’s extraordinary energy transition is in part down to increased energy efficiency: put simply, less electricity was needed, whatever the source. But coal is still essential during spikes in demand. Given coal generation is due to be phased out by 2025, the country will need to find alternative power sources to cope during extreme weather events. And that overall decline in electricity demand is sure to be reversed as more vehicles and … [Read more...]
Bioenergy carbon capture: Climate snake oil or 1.5C panacea?
Most models for meeting 1.5℃ or 2℃ climate change targets suggest we will be using bioenergy carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) to mop up the world’s total annual CO2 emissions by around 2070 (for 2℃). This means moving from today’s three BECCS power plants to 16,000 by 2060. But, explains Paul Behrens of Leiden University, large-scale BECCS is a “monumentally tricky idea,” and, while aiming to fix climate disruption, it makes many things … [Read more...]
Estonia needs a plan – and support – to get rid of its dirty oil shale
The need for a transition to sustainable energy is widely felt in Estonia, but after twenty years of talking, Estonia’s dirty oil shale industry is still carrying on. In fact, thanks to lower taxes, a boom in oil shale mining is expected. Estonian Green Movement, a member of Bankwatch, recently presented the national parliament with a proposal for a strategic oil shale exit plan. According to Teet Randma, national campaigner for Bankwatch in … [Read more...]
Decarbonising heavy industry can’t be done without large-scale CCS effort
The decarbonisation will require a profound transformation, writes David Hone, Chief Climate Change Advisor at Shell. Shell’s Sky climate scenario shows it can't be done without large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS). A new initiative should boost progress on CCS. … [Read more...]
EU policy must wake up to carbon dioxide removal
Most scenarios to meet the Paris Agreement’s targets require negative emissions technologies. However, carbon dioxide removal is not part of the EU’s climate policy yet. Its integration presents a serious challenge to the EU’s low-carbon policy paradigm and experience, write Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Vivian Scott of the University of Edinburgh and James Palmer of the University of Bristol. … [Read more...]
Poland’s love affair with coal: can the EU do anything about it?
The Polish government’s strong commitment to coal goes against EU policy direction and against market conditions, write Anna Mikulska of the Baker Institute’s Center for Energy Studies and Eryk Kosinski of Adam Mickiewicz University. But coal has a special place in the nation’s collective heart. To wean Poland off coal will require EU support to coal-dependent regions and for alternative energy sources, the authors argue. … [Read more...]
Green Gold: a documentary filmmaker unearths the shocking story behind biofuels
On 22 November, the impressive documentary “Green Gold” by veteran filmmaker Sergio Ghizzardi premieres at the Aventura cinema in Brussels. Over a period of nearly ten years Ghizzardi travelled to all corners of the globe, interviewing politicians, farmers, oil industry representatives, biofuel producers and NGOs to understand “a political project” that began in Brussels and kicked up a worldwide storm that is still getting bigger every day. … [Read more...]
Trading biomass like oil: Lithuania shows how it can be done
European biomass markets are fragmented and intransparent, writes Jakub Kucera, economic analyst at RSJ, a Prague-based investment company. With one exception: Lithuania has a well-functioning biomass spot market, Baltpool. Could this become a model for other European countries? The Lithuanians would like to expand. … [Read more...]
Biofuel breakthroughs bring ‘negative emissions’ a step closer
Recent breakthroughs in biofuel research have brought the prospect of ‘negative emissions’ a step closer, writes Andrew Hopkins, Emeritus Professor of Sociology at Australian National University. With the help of pyrolysis, biomass in the form of algae can be converted into char, which can be used as soil additive, returning carbon to the soil. Courtesy The Conversation. … [Read more...]
Interview bio-energy expert André Faaij: “So much nonsense has been told – high time for the real story”
“An enormous amount of nonsense” has been told about bio-energy, says André Faaij, scientific director of Energy Academy Europe and professor Energy Systems Analysis at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. According to Faaij, it is high time for the real – scientifically validated – story. “The bio-based economy is indispensable for our climate policy and can mean huge progress for agriculture and nature in developing countries”. … [Read more...]
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