The rapid pace of change in the energy sector is a positive sign for the transition. But the disruption it causes creates another big problem. It makes it harder to predict what will happen next. That makes strategies and pathways harder to design, and increases the risk of stranded assets. To try to come to grips with that future, Sean Ratka, Paul Durrant and Francisco Boshell summarise the findings of IRENA's 4-day “Innovation Week” held last … [Read more...]
Will Germany’s “EEG” energy law amendments make renewable targets harder to meet?
Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz/EEG), now 20 years old, is under discussion as a new amendment is supposed to come into force on January 1st 2021. Simon Göss at Energy Brainpool takes a detailed look at the highlights, including the new and higher targets, the financial role of municipalities, clean electricity subsidies, and solar and wind tender volumes. He explains there has been serious criticism of the … [Read more...]
City-level emissions reductions: what can successful cities teach us
The EU Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (EUCoM) requires their member cities to commit to exceeding their national goals. EUCoM is one of the world’s largest subnational climate action networks, with over 1,000 cities and home to 50m people. Writing for Carbon Brief, Angel Hsu, Nihit Goyal and Amy Weinfurter at Yale-NUS College review the data to see how successful they have been. About 40% of the cities show emission reductions that are … [Read more...]
IEA: Without accelerating clean energy innovations we cannot hit net zero by 2050
The impressive rise of renewables and energy efficiency, alone, will not be sufficient to meet the world’s 2050 emissions goal, says the IEA in its flagship Clean Energy Innovation report. New technologies, taken all the way through to widespread adoption by the market, must become an essential part of the net zero pathway. The stark warning is that existing policies to decarbonise shipping, trucks, aviation and heavy industry are not nearly … [Read more...]
Waste Heat Recovery can help replace Poland’s District Heating coal
Three quarters of all district heating in Poland comes from burning coal. So the country is looking for ways to reduce this. It’s why subsidies are provided for combined heat and power (CHP) plants that burn either coal, gas or biomass, which all have lower emissions. But a report by IEEFA authored by Gerard Wynn, Arjun Flora and Paolo Coghe says that waste heat recovery (WHR) – currently unsubsidised – is both emissions free and can be … [Read more...]
Biofuels “light-to-power” slump: because photosynthesis is no match for Solar PV
The success of energy crops depends on many things. But the first link in the chain is a weak one: natural photosynthesis, the conversion of light into energy by plants. The problem is the efficiency of photosynthesis is no match for that of a modern solar PV cell. And while solar technology keeps improving, mother nature – not a signatory to the Paris Agreement – has no plans to do so. Any progress must come from biotechnology which is slow … [Read more...]
No Energiewende without Wärmewende: making Germany’s Heating emissions climate neutral (…nearly)
In Germany, space and water heating in buildings accounts for almost a third of total final energy consumption. Because over 90% of its 22m buildings are fuelled by oil and gas, that makes the sector emissions very intensive. The government’s ambition is to have a "nearly climate neutral building stock" by 2050. But although those emissions have fallen by 44% since 1990, progress has largely stagnated since 2011. Freja Eriksen at Clean Energy … [Read more...]
“Climate leader” UK: why did low-carbon electricity generation stall in 2019?
In 2019, just 1TWh of low-carbon electricity (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass) was added in the UK. That’s after a decade of adding an average of 9TWh/year. Why? The UK needs to know, given an extra 15TWh/year is required until 2030 to meet emissions goals on top of the planned electrification of transport and heating. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their thorough analysis. Wind power alone rose by 8TWh in 2019, but was offset by … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 v the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete has completed his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 to compare with this year’s IEA World Energy Outlook, published mid-November. Underpinning all his predictions is his bet that the world will adopt tech-neutral policies (i.e. not backing any one technology over another, like a very high carbon tax) in 2030: in his opinion it will be the best way to accelerate the transition to meet the Paris goals as the 1.5°C … [Read more...]
Decarbonising industry: how much policy-driven adoption is needed to let the market take over
Decarbonising industry is one of the world’s greatest challenges. The costs, today, are huge and therefore the technology adoption required has hardly started. But several technologies already exist. Gbemi Oluleye at Imperial College (UK) explains the first step is to measure the market size for each sub-sector, then estimate how much policy-driven adoption is required to achieve the cost reductions that make the change viable. After that, no … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 4 of 5): Nuclear, biomass and CCS
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. To make his predictions he has created simulations of cost-optimal technology mixes and made his own assumptions over the drivers that will affect them: policy, technological progress, demand growth and behavioural change are all included. If nuclear, biomass and CCS take off they will … [Read more...]
1.2TW: cost reductions, policy advances will drive 50% renewables growth to 2024, says IEA
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans runs through their analysis of the updated forecasts in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2019 report, released this week. In its “base case” global renewable energy capacity will increase by 50% over 6 years. Rising from 2,501GW in 2018 to 3,721GW in 2024, it will add the equivalent of the entire US electricity system. In the “accelerated case” it’s 60%, further adding the equivalent of Japan’s. 85% of … [Read more...]
Germany 2021: when fixed feed-in tariffs end, how will renewables fare?
Starting in 2021 many of Germany’s existing “pioneer” wind turbines, solar PV installations and biogas plants – launched with generous price guarantees - will stop receiving fixed feed-in tariffs. That means renewable capacity may be shut down if they can’t find a new business model to run on. The new rules comes at a decisive time for Germany’s energy transition as it tries to increase renewables to meet emissions targets and gradually increase … [Read more...]
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
Lithuania shows way to integrated EU energy future
As Lithuania and the Baltic Nations turn away from nuclear power and towards increased solar and wind energy production, one city is shifting towards a new energy future. Elektrenai, or Electricity City, once powered an entire nation. Its three, soaring red-and-white smokestacks were its pride and joy, and heralded in popular songs and propaganda films. The city around the power plant was built to house the workers who ensured enough oil and … [Read more...]
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