Schalk
Cloete
NorwayAccount Details
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My work on Energy Post is focused on the great 21st century sustainability challenge: quadrupling the size of the global economy, while reducing CO2 emissions to zero. I seek to contribute a consistently pragmatic viewpoint to the ongoing debate on this crucial topic. My formal research focus is on second generation CO2 capture processes because these systems will be ideally suited to the likely future scenario of a much belated scramble for deep and rapid decarbonization of the global energy system.
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An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050 (part 2 of 5): wind and solar
An independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the IEA’s WEO 2019
Time for tech-neutral incentives if renewables growth won’t stop climate change?
Electric Cars: only big subsidies lift market share off the 1.5% floor
Developing World: cashflow analysis shows gas, coal far more profitable than clean energy
Why does coal survive? A detailed real-world cashflow analysis
Investing in gas: the effect of carbon taxes, gas prices, and the growth of renewables
How much subsidy does solar need, and for how long?
Nuclear power at the mercy of government subsidies while costs remain high
The risks related to onshore wind power investment
Investment risk: nuclear high, new load-following fossil fuel plants low
The celebrity couple: intermittent renewables and electric cars
A common goal for all sustainability advocates
The plethora of better alternatives to wind and solar power and electric cars
Schalk Cloete is creating his own 5-part independent Global Energy Forecast to 2050, to compare with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. Many of his assumptions are different from the big institutions, not least that technology-neutrality will be widely adopted as the best policy, as carbon budgets are exhausted around 2030. There are other big differences too. He starts with wind and solar, two technologies that the IEA and … [Read more...]
Schalk Cloete is creating his own Global Energy Forecast to 2050. He wants to see how his own independent analysis will match up with the next IEA World Energy Outlook, due in November. And so do we. Rich with data, his major predictions include a global policy shift from technology-forcing to technology-neutrality shortly before 2030, driven by growing worldwide acceptance of the severity of climate change. The exhaustion of the 1.5°C and, … [Read more...]
In 2018 energy use grew 2.9% and emissions 2%. That means renewables are not keeping up with energy’s growth: it will need a four-fold increase in wind and solar’s growth to do so, says Schalk Cloete. There’s more: to cut global CO2 emissions by the 3% per year we need to meet the Paris goals wind and solar growth rates must increase by over an order of magnitude. He reviews the evidence and concludes that current technology-forcing policies – … [Read more...]
You only need to compare the US to Norway to see how the main driver for EV sales is coming from government subsidies. Total Norwegian EV incentives cut the cost of running a typical 60 kWh battery pack from over $200/kWh to negative $336/kWh. US incentives bring it down to negative $23/kWh. The consequences are clear: generous Norway sees EVs take 31% of the market share in cars. In the US it’s 1.4%. That makes EVs a luxury item in the US (like … [Read more...]
80% of future energy infrastructure will be built in the developing world. Schalk Cloete has already written for us on the purely economic viability of developed world onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear, natural gas and coal. He now presents his detailed cashflow analyses of the major generator technologies applied to the developing world. Because costs tend to be much lower the returns are higher. But gas and coal still easily … [Read more...]
Everyone knows coal plants are bad for the environment. So why do countries still use them? Coal’s attractiveness comes from the relatively low up front capital investment required to start generating energy. On top of that, the rapid rise of variable renewables (solar, wind) need something to rise with it to fill the generation gap when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. In his final instalment - after his similarly detailed … [Read more...]
Schalk Cloete presents his latest article looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a specific power sector. After reviewing onshore wind, nuclear and solar, he now looks at gas. His analysis of coal is to come. The major variables are increasing CO2 prices, and natural gas pricing. He adds that the growth of wind and solar should benefit load-following gas power plants: they are plugging the intermittency gap when electricity … [Read more...]
Schalk Cloete presents his latest paper looking at what affects the profitability of an investment in a power sector. After reviewing onshore wind and nuclear, he now looks at solar. His analysis of coal and gas are to come. Intermittency, market share, maintenance, integration costs and other factors are modelled in detail to help predict solar’s future. *This article is brought to you via our new author platform. If you have an article you … [Read more...]
What affects the profitability of an investment in nuclear energy? What are the risks? Energy researcher and analyst Schalk Cloete presents his latest paper on the matter. He looks at the various effects on nuclear power investment, including the rise of other competing renewable energy sources, and the changing price of energy. *This article is brought to you via our new author platform. If you have an article you want to submit to us for … [Read more...]
Bans on subsidies (in some countries) and reduced costs have hit total investment in onshore wind. Meanwhile, market share continues to grow across the EU28. Wind energy now accounts for almost 20% of installed capacity for power generation which makes researcher Schalk Cloete's sobering analysis of risks for onshore wind well worth reading. Following up on his previous article, he examines current assumptions and argues that the discount rate … [Read more...]
In the current policy environment many energy technologies can appear attractive with the right set of assumptions: discounted clean energy technologies (wind, solar and nuclear) where the discount rate is heavily influenced by risk (see graph) and, perhaps surprisingly, new load-following fossil fuel plants (especially natural gas) where continued wind/solar technology forcing actually provides substantial upside potential. CCS researcher Schalk … [Read more...]
Even though storing intermittent wind and solar power in electric car batteries sounds attractive, this will be impractical and expensive in practice, writes Schalk Cloete. Electric cars have much clearer synergies with baseload power plants, while excess wind and solar power is better suited to H2/synfuel production. … [Read more...]
The Energiewende is proceeding ahead of schedule with high grid reliability, writes researcher Schalk Cloete. However, costs are much higher than originally planned, while CO2emissions are stagnating. According to Cloete, wind/solar market shares have now reached the point where large grid expansion projects become critical. One problem is that the net value of new wind/solar is approaching zero as market value declines and integration costs … [Read more...]
Nothing is better for fossil fuel interests than current government policies supporting wind, solar and electric cars, writes independent researcher Schalk Cloete. These green technologies won't reduce fossil fuel consumption sufficiently for a long time to come, so the fossil fuel sector will be able to survive that much longer. In the third and last part of a series on green technology-forcing, Cloete calls on all sustainability advocates to … [Read more...]
Technology neutrality can activate more than ten times greater sustainable development potential than current technology-forcing policies, writes independent researcher Schalk Cloete. In the second part of a series which follows an article about the dangers of technology-forcing of wind and solar power and battery electric vehicles, Cloete reviews eight alternative sustainable development solutions that he believes have greater climate mitigation … [Read more...]
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