Many industries will be pleading their case for a Coronavirus bailout. Severin Borenstein at the Energy Institute at Haas explains why the oil industry should not be one of them. Oil prices, already on the slide, are indeed sinking lower thanks to the pandemic. But decarbonisation should be sending them that way anyway. And the oil price has always be artificially high thanks to the OPEC cartel and weak or complicit “competition” from non-OPEC … [Read more...]
Don’t blame Wind, Solar for Coal cycling. It’s everyday variable demand
Joseph Daniel at the Union of Concerned Scientists explains why variable renewables like wind and solar are not forcing coal plants to cycle (ramp up and down). He presents data from the U.S. that clearly shows it’s straightforward variable demand that’s doing it, because demand has always varied considerably throughout the day. So stop blaming the arrival and growth of wind and solar for this “inefficiency”, he says. These renewables have plenty … [Read more...]
BP’s zero-carbon pledge: three major challenges
This month BP, one of the world’s largest oil and gas firms, announced its ambition to be a net zero emissions company by 2050. The promise extends to cutting the emissions of its customers too; after all, they’re the ones who are actually burning the fuel, not BP. So it aims to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by 50% by 2050 or sooner. Jules Kortenhorst, Tyeler Matsuo and Raghav Muralidharan at Rocky Mountain Institute take a look at … [Read more...]
What if Germany wasn’t shutting down Nuclear? Modelling Coal, Gas, Renewables, emissions, prices
Germany plans to shut down its entire nuclear fleet by 2022. Right now, of the original 17, only 7 are still running. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan of 2011 was the trigger for Germany’s abandonment of emissions-free nuclear as part of its clean energy goals. Maximilian Auffhammer at the Energy Institute at Haas reviews a paper by his colleagues that has modelled the whole-system effects of the shutdowns, then compared the results with a … [Read more...]
Poland’s PGE: profits from Renewables can replace declining Coal’s
Poland’s PGE is one of Europe’s most fossil fuel intensive energy firms. Coal makes up around 90% of its electricity generation. It’s been investing around PLN 28bn ($7.2bn, €7bn) to build three new coal power plant units, acquire the Polish coal assets of France’s EDF, and upgrade its existing fleet to meet air quality standards. But a new and detailed report from IEEFA warns that the profitability of these investments will decline in the 2020s … [Read more...]
Canada is launching methane emissions rules for Oil and Gas
January 2020 marked the first time the Canadian government has targeted methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. They’ve committed to reduce oil and gas methane emissions by 40% to 45% below 2012 levels by 2025. Reducing methane emissions is considered one of the most cost-effective ways to cut global emissions. Methane equates to around 5.4% of the country’s total emissions of 716 Mt CO2-eq. The IEA estimates global methane emissions from … [Read more...]
Even cycling Coal is losing money. Only “summer” coal makes sense in Texas, Louisiana
Joseph Daniel at the Union of Concerned Scientists says a detailed look at the U.S. data shows the days of coal plants being the baseload kings are numbered. The declining costs of wind, solar and gas are making coal look expensive. What’s more, increasing energy efficiency is flattening peak demand (and therefore prices), squeezing those periods when coal could rely on finding customers. That means coal plant owners that say they deserve support … [Read more...]
60 years on, OPEC should take control again, cut supply, raise prices to fund its Transition
OPEC is often seen as no friend of the Transition. But Greg Muttitt points out that, although it did take an anti-climate stance in the 1990s, by the 2000s it had stepped back from climate negotiations, while some OPEC members became supporters. Muttitt says that, celebrating its 60th anniversary, it’s time for OPEC to remember its roots and organise its members to take control of their own destiny in the face of the inevitable rise of clean … [Read more...]
Carbon Tax: “laboratory” Europe shows U.S. it has no effect on aggregate jobs, growth
The issue of carbon taxes is under debate in the U.S. Congress. The fear is a new tax will destroy jobs and hinder growth. Will it? Meredith Fowlie at the Energy Institute at Haas says the U.S. should see Europe as a very useful carbon tax laboratory experiment: half the countries have some sort of tax, the other half don’t. She’s pulled together evidence to answer the simple question: does a carbon tax affect aggregate employment and growth. Her … [Read more...]
U.S. EIA predicts Renewables will surpass Coal by 2021
Renewable electricity generation in the U.S. has risen so fast in the last 10 years that it’s expected to surpass coal by 2021, according to the latest report from the nation’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). This would have been “unthinkable” in 2010, says Dennis Wamsted at IEEFA. Back then, nationwide, utility-scale solar generated 1.29bn kWh and wind 94.6bn kWh. By 2021 solar will have risen almost a hundredfold to 122bn kWh and wind … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas’s future: diversify into clean electricity, new fuels, says IEA
The oil and gas industry is not doing nearly enough to meet Transition targets, says the IEA. Only 1% is invested in non-core activities. That needs to rise to 15% within 10 years. The IEA’s article summarises their comprehensive report “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions”, released this month. It explains how the industry’s existing skills and “deep pockets” make them ideally placed to invest in low-carbon fuels (Hydrogen, … [Read more...]
Gas infrastructure leaks methane: fix it, or accelerate to clean energy
Natural gas, because it’s low-carbon, is being used as a bridge fuel away from the old fossil fuel world. But there are two main problems. The infrastructure leaks methane (the main component of the gas) which is 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year period (and 86 times over a 20-year period!). And, crucially, nobody is properly measuring those leaks. That means policy makers are growing the gas mix without knowing by how much it’s … [Read more...]
What can Oil producers learn from a sunset Coal industry?
Although fossil fuels are being replaced by clean energy they are not going away. Even coal is not in decline, it’s just peaked globally: declining in mature economies, still rising in developing ones. Henning Gloystein at the Eurasia Group, writing for the Atlantic Council, asks to what extent oil will follow coal. Oil consumption is still growing – 1% this year - though at a much slower rate than before. As with coal, a re-focus onto cleaner … [Read more...]
Fossil fuel politics is changing: Big Oil, automakers split on Trump lowering standards
Cara Daggett at Virginia Tech has noticed a positive change in corporate support for the Transition. In the past, Big Oil and automakers would have opposed any limits to business-as-usual. But today, major oil companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, are opposing U.S. President Trump’s intention to further deregulate methane emissions. That’s because they’ve invested heavily in natural gas as a bridge fuel for a clean future, which would … [Read more...]
Why renewables need gas: case study USA
Everyone is predicting the continued expansion of gas through to 2050. Jim Conca reviews the state of play in the U.S. to explain why that projection makes sense. The welcome and rapid growth of renewables still needs something to provide backup load-following to a growing and increasingly intermittent electric grid. Gas is the cheapest to roll out and can keep prices low for decades. The other two contenders, hydro and nuclear, just can’t match … [Read more...]
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