Robert Kleinberg at CGEP explains why methane isn’t included in the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which imposes a carbon tax on imported goods. Basically, CO2 emissions are easy to estimate accurately, whereas methane emissions are not. Many methane emissions, even the largest ones, are intermittent and of highly variable duration. Gas leaks vary over many orders of magnitude, and once diffused in the atmosphere leave no local … [Read more...]
Credit Rating Agencies downgrading Coal, Oil, Gas: climate change is now a clear risk category
Credit rating agencies now clearly recognise that climate change has become its own risk category, explains Tom Sanzillo at IEEFA who summarises his 43-page report. Financially, the coal, oil and gas sectors have served the world for decades. But due to regulatory, legal, economic, financial, political and social concerns, coal is credit negative and oil and gas is no longer positive. Sanzillo’s report charts the gradual erosion of the sector’s … [Read more...]
Half of fossil fuel Methane reduction targets can be met at no net cost. Why isn’t it happening?
We need to cut global methane emissions from fossil fuels by 75% by 2030 to be on target to limit warming to 1.5°C. That equates to 90 Mt of the current total of 120 Mt of annual fossil fuel methane emissions. The IEA says 80 Mt can be avoided through the deployment of known and existing technologies, often at low – or even negative – cost. And the 75% cut needs $170bn in spending to 2030, a very achievable sum given it represents less than 5% of … [Read more...]
Study: universities worldwide are still producing far more graduates for fossil fuels than for clean energy
Universities worldwide still produce more workers for fossil fuels than for renewable energy industries. Roman Vakulchuk and Indra Overland at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs summarise their new study on the energy transition in global higher education, published by the Energy Research & Social Science journal. The study is based on a review of 18,400 universities in 196 countries. 68% of the world’s energy educational … [Read more...]
Two years on, how is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving energy security and decarbonisation?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has boosted anxiety and therefore action on energy security and dependence on oil and gas. Sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports is an opportunity to replace fossil fuels with low or no carbon alternatives, an opportunity that is being taken. And renewables like wind and solar are by their nature local and therefore good for energy security (though with notable exceptions). Charles Hendry, Ellen Wald, Olga Khakova, … [Read more...]
Deadly loophole: third countries are refining Russian oil and exporting it to EU and G7 perfectly legally
There is a loophole in the sanctions imposed by EU/G7 countries that prohibit the importation of Russian crude oil and oil products. Third countries not imposing sanctions can import Russian crude, refine it into oil products and legally export them to price cap coalition countries (PCC). An analysis by CREA reveals that €8.5bn of PCC imports of oil products in the 13 months to the end of 2023 were made from Russian crude. Also, in 2023, there … [Read more...]
Is global energy security being used as an excuse to build more U.S. LNG export capacity?
Europe’s energy security is being used as an excuse in the U.S. to build more LNG terminals than are actually needed, argues Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz at IEEFA. European gas demand is expected to keep falling. Even with U.S. projects that are currently under construction, its LNG export capacity in 2030 will be 76% higher than Europe’s forecast demand. The U.S. should seriously re-evaluate its strategy or risk overinvestment, says … [Read more...]
EU’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions drop to levels last seen in the 1960s
The EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (including power generation, industry and transport) dropped 8% in 2023 year-on-year, reaching levels last seen in the early 1960s, reveals an analysis by CREA. More than half of that decline came from an impressive 25% year-on-year reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation. The cleaner electricity mix is thanks to the continuous rise of wind and solar as well as a rebound in hydropower and nuclear. … [Read more...]
Germany: Carbon Prices could phase-out Coal by 2030 without a new law
The upward trend in the carbon price since 2015 has already seen coal generation decline significantly. Last year, total generation was a little over 100 TWh; it was 263 TWh in 2003. Sebastian Ligewie at Energy Brainpool looks at the prices of hard coal, lignite and the EUAs (EU emission allowances). It’s around €37 per MWh for hard coal and €8 for lignite. But emissions costs of around €63 per MWh for hard coal and €84 for lignite are added to … [Read more...]
Most investors still aren’t factoring in climate risks. Oil and Gas firms face virtually no additional borrowing costs
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent due to climate change. At the same time, global decarbonisation is changing the economics of the energy sector. Yet credit ratings agencies aren’t consistently factoring in the risk of climate-related change into borrowing costs, explains Matt Burke at the University of Oxford. For example, oil and gas firms are facing virtually no additional borrowing costs. It’s a similar story for governments … [Read more...]
How to manage price risk as the EU shifts from Russian Gas to Renewables
Europe is phasing out Russian gas and replacing it with more renewables. That means there will be greater demand variability and a resulting impact on European spot gas prices. The problem is that long-term contracting, the traditional way for buyers to mitigate spot price risk, is incompatible with Europe’s climate objectives of reducing long term consumption of gas. Kong Chyong at the Center on Global Energy Policy proposes alternative policy … [Read more...]
Europe is updating its price cap sanctions on Russian oil. How to make them work?
The EC has put forward proposals for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russian oil exports. Brian O’Toole, Olga Khakova and Charles Lichfield at the Atlantic Council and Tomasz Wlostowski at EU Strategies review the performance of the price cap sanctions one year on from their implementation, and give recommendations for how to make them work better. Though most observers agree that the cap has limited export income for Russia this … [Read more...]
When 0.2% Methane leakage can make Gas dirtier than Coal
Around the world gas is replacing coal to reduce emissions. But even small amounts of methane leakage in the gas life-cycle can make emissions on par with or even worse than coal, explain Shannon Hughes and Deborah Gordon at RMI. They present their calculator that shows if West Virginia state's gas methane leakage rate is just 1.4% their emissions equal the coal it replaces. Texas Permian LNG exported to China only needs a leakage rate of 0.2% to … [Read more...]
Oil & Gas business is fatally flawed: Russia-Ukraine only delayed the relentless decline in prices
The oil and gas producers have made windfalls off the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent spikes in prices. But the return of prices to normal levels is re-emphasising the flaw in their business model, explains Clark Williams-Derry at IEEFA. The cost of producing the fossil fuels can only go up: the low hanging fruit was picked long ago, and finding and extracting new deposits gets more and more expensive. So do labour costs. … [Read more...]
Can we expect Gas price volatility and spikes this winter? Why?
Europe has done well in pivoting away from Russian gas imports. After painful energy prices rises in 2022 they have fallen steadily this year. LNG imports and the infrastructure to support them is growing. And Europe’s gas storage levels hit 90% capacity three months ahead of the November target. But the challenge is far from over, explains Michael Bradshaw at Warwick Business School. European gas prices remain 50% above their pre-invasion … [Read more...]
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